What Broke the Solid Democratic South?

<singing>
Oh, carry me back to old Virginny.
That’s where the cotton and corn and taters grow…
</singing>

Oh, sorry, I wasn’t listening. Carter took the whole South, you say?

Well, let’s examine this. Carter took Virginia in the Democratic primary, but lost it in the general. Three of the states he carried in the general, South Carolina, Mississippi and Alabama, went to Wallace in the primary.

Thus we should conclude that by the mid-1970s Virginia was on its way toward being one of the more moderate states in this area, despite its shameful past. And indeed, some few years later Virginia elected Doug Wilder governor. Much of this was because Wilder is moderate-to-conservative in his personal and political temperament, but there is no question that the state changed quite a bit.

I’ve seen Reagan’s “Southern Strategy” mentioned here several times. What exactly was that, and how did it work so well for him? I was looking at historic electoral college results, and in the 4 years from 1976 to 1980, the entire south went from blue to red (with the exception of GA, which went red in 1984).

Well, Reagan’s first speech after the Republican convention in 1980 was on the topic of “states’ rights” and was delivered near Philadelphia, Mississippi.

Note that “states’ rights” had long been Southern code for the specific right to maintain segregation. (See Strom Thurmond’s States’ Rights Party.)

Note also that Philadelphia, Mississippi had been the site of the 1964 abduction and murder of civil rights workers James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Michael Schwerner by members of the Ku Klux Klan.

Now, to be sure, Reagan’s speech was on economic policy (harumph) but he knew exactly what he was doing: speaking in code to racists, saying “I’m on your side.”

Reagan didn’t invent the Southern Strategy, although he used it to become President. In 2005, an actual Republican apologized–to the NAACP; some of the GOP still find it useful.

Wikipedia has more details. Fairly accurate, as I remember. But you can also do further research; look up the Civil Rights Movement while you’re at it.

Uh, not really. I will be the first to admit that Reagan didn’t use the most appropriate phrasing there, but in no way was this a calculated appeal to racists. First of all, the fact that the Neshoba County Fair is so close to Philadelphia is coincidental - the fair is something of an institution unto itself, a massive annual event lasting a week and drawing people from across the state.

Many Democrats over the years have addressed the fairgoers, including John Glenn - nobody has accused them of pandering to racists. And an examination of the transcript of Reagan’s remarks show no racist comments at all - he says the phrase “state’s rights” in terms of economic policy, and in another passage he rejects the caricature of the “welfare queen”. He says most people on welfare want to get off of it - not the standard appeal of a racist politician.

So while this has received a lot of play over the years, I’m inclined to believe it is something of a political urban legend.

Uh, yes, really.

Bullshit. He wasn’t speaking off the cuff. It was prepared text. You may be too young, but no one Reagan’s age didn’t know exactly what the phrase “I believe in states’ rights” was going to convey in Mississippi. This was no boating accident.

Possible, possible. At least there is plausible deniability there. But even if I grant you that, Reagan chose to make his first post-convention speech in Mississippi, and chose to include the phrase “I believe in states’ rights” in that speech. (Or at least his handlers did. I’m not sure I give Reagan enough intellectual credit to be that devious.)

Did they praise “states’ rights”?