What can be done (climate change debate)?

As pointed before, even in the last conference efforts were done to make that conference carbon neutral.

As for doing something: personal contact is the main reason why conferences are made. One has to consider that in the real world many businesses are reporting that teleconferencing is not a very effective to start the dialog for an eventual agreement, so it is in government. The “common” assessment that conferences like that are useless ignores that the conversation is progressing and the framework of what will be done is taking shape. Sure, not at the speed is needed IMHO but once the problem becomes more serious that framework will be a guide for what will be set for the future.

The next step is to outlaw anyone from posting about global warming, unless they use solar, wind or nuclear power to use internet. Or hook up a bike to charge your batteries.

No more fossil fuel powered global warming discussions.

Nothing like that was reported from the conferences.

What a surprise that the Copenhagen conference would conclude that ‘green growth’ is the prevailing economic model of our time. And of course they ‘buried’ the idea that addressing climate change is bad for business. What were you expecting, that a green conference would come out with a statement that their ideas would hurt the economy?

‘Green growth’ is not our prevailing economic model. That’s just silly. ‘Green Growth’ is little more than a talking point. Just like all those ‘green jobs’ that were going to transform the American economy. Remember those?

The fact is, environmental protection costs money. It may be worth the cost, but it’s ridiculous to claim that it’s a way to grow an economy.

Meanwhile, the Global Energy Initiative surveyed a bunch of economists for their views on what can be done about climate change, and what do you know, most of them pretty much agree with what I’ve been saying:

The Economist’s Solution to Climate Change

He’s for a carbon tax, but not until other issues are addressed. And he admits that cap and trade markets have problems, so I’m not sure why he thinks a carbon tax will work much better. I am TOTALLY in agreement with the need to phase out subsidies of fossil fuels. But that seems almost politically impossible.

Ask yourself: If you can’t even get countries to agree to stop subsidizing the burning of fossil fuels, what do you think your chances are of getting them to impose a tax on them?

This is the simplistic economist’s answer. Getting the prices right is indeed a worthy goal, except for several problems: 1) we don’t know what the right price is, and 2) for that to work you need everyone to go along with you. It’s a fungible global commodity, so you need a global pricing structure. The market provides one today. To replace it by fiat you need all the participants in the market to agree, or you just wind up with a system of one-sided tariffs with all the problems I mentioned earlier. Since that’s not going to happen, I don’t think this one is possible.

This is closest to the right answer, in my opinion. The major focus has to be on finding a way to make alternative energy sources cheaper - and not by subsidizing it. That just shifts the cost to another sector. Once you have a cost-competitive technology, THEN you can start think of carbon taxes and alt-energy subsidies as a way to encourage the changeover to the new technology. But taxing energy before we have an alternative will not happen as it would destroy wealth and would merely act as a wealth transfer from compliant countries to non-compliant countries.

Alex also has the right idea for how to stimulate R&D: You don’t let government pick winners and losers. Not only are they not competent to do so (no one is, since it’s a process of discovery and no one knows where the breakthroughs will come from), but that just opens the door for corruption and rent-seeking. That’s what happened with the Ethanol mandate and with Obama’s ‘green energy’ initiatives. They picked the people they thought should get the money, and that turned out to be a failure. Prizes can instead be used to change the cost-benefit equation to stimulate research, without disrupting the stochastic innovation model of the marketplace.

The most pessimistic take: Carbon taxes would be a good idea, except that no one will accept them. So, time to start mitigating. But Tyler also supports research into new technologies.

There’s one guy who’s for carbon taxes, but he’s also for ‘rapid structural change’ whatever that is, and ‘productivity growth in economic development’, which is somewhat confusing but also inconsistent with taxing people more for their energy.

So basically, the way out is to make alternative energy cheaper than fossil fuels, so that the world willingly switches over. I can get behind that. I can even get behind increased government funding of alternative energy research, so long as it’s done in a way that doesn’t substitute central planning for market innovation.

{ex-PFC Wintergreen …}

I don’t agree with every little detail of your two posts, but I certainly understand them. You’ve taken ordinary evidence and made ordinary claims. If I should wish to debate you on these few disagreements, then it is my case to make.

“Reducing regulatory barriers to nuclear power would be a good start.” Depends on which regulations we’re talking about. Any of the trivial rules aren’t slowing the process down, it’s the big expensive and time consuming regulations that slow the process. Environmental Impact Studies, quadruple redundant safety systems and containment structures are required for very good reasons. Diablo Canyon in California is designed to withstand the largest tsunami, the strongest earthquake and the most powerful Pacific storm … all at the same time. This is cheaper than splitting open just one of the reactor vessels and dumping it into the ocean. Sacrificing safety for timeliness is a poor tradeoff.

“How nice for you. It’s always easy to get behind a movement when it doesn’t cost you anything.” Do you honestly believe someone came by and gave us a wind farm. That’s nuts … these people expect a profit … a return on investment. When they were receiving tax credits, we were taking textbooks out of the hands of little children. It’s called “investing in the future”. I have no idea why the rest of the world is surprised by all this, we’ve known it here for the past forty years. I’m not the only one who has lived their entire adult life being conscience of my effect on the environment. Admittedly, we started this when the Alarmists were screaming “peak oil, peak oil”. It was truly a miracle from God that we found centuries worth of reserves and even more miraclous that Big Oil just happen to have the exact technology at hand to exploit these new found reserves. I hope that new Pope is thinking about sainthood for these Oil executives. Communities have to invest their own money if they want clean energy.

<hijack>“Stop subsidizing water usage in California”. This totally confuses me, why shouldn’t Californians be allowed to subsidize their own water?</hijack>

Sure I remember, last time we had that conversation it was clear that a lot of those jobs failed to come thanks to what the Republicans are doing by preventing the funding of those jobs. Even so, there has been a lot of progress in that area.

I don’t disagree but that doesn’t mean that looking into alternatives is wrong. It’s possible that full-scale nuclear power could become cheaper than extracting fossil fuel out of the ground, especially if we find a way to tax carbon. I also think there is a benefit to creating the carbon over a longer period of time, if only because it gives us more time to come up with other alternatives.

I think taxing carbon can be done. We could, for example, tax carbon on imports. It won’t be easy but if the US, EU, and Japan all agree then emerging manufacturers like China would have to at least consider going along.

… and using the tax revenues to subsidize carbon-neutral power generation. If it works, and we reduce our carbon emissions, do we increase other taxes to continue the subsidies, or reduce the subsidies and hope the power stations can survive in the open market?

How much truth is there in the statement “The true cost of a gallon of gasoline is double what we pay at the pump”? Just how much tax money is used to subsidize Big Oil? My own Congressman has no idea, it’s so complicated and convoluted there’s no way he has time to figure it out.

#2 and 3 would jsut push us into a depression.

Noone is going to trade theoretical harms in the distant future for current economic harm.

I suspect we will have econmically viable alternative energy before gasoline starts to approach the sort of prices you see in the UK.

Not really.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CEsQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fearththeoperatorsmanual.com%2Fannotated_script%2FPDF%2FETOM_Script_PTP.pdf&ei=974gU_Yf5ozIAZfIgOAG&usg=AFQjCNGnFmt-HAzmYXmEzneiqXdi597VRw&sig2=wKqdL1HvoOAKtoJGcK1WDA&bvm=bv.62788935,d.aWc&cad=rja
(PDF file)

There is evidence that the warming is already affecting the intensity of extreme weather events like hurricanes, precipitation events, droughts and others.

And a lot of it is already available, but instead of a concerted effort to make the situation less onerous in the future we have groups (specially in the political sphere) that are only pushing for inaction.

I think “phasing in” is the operative words here. We can increase the carbon tax, say, 2.6¢ per gallon, per year, for 100 years. This would only result in chronic recession. As noted above, trucking companies are running razor thin margins, so we’ll have to exempt trucks hauling food, or food prices will go up. Ambulances and medical supply deliveries will have to be exempt, health care is already too expensive. Government vehicles (including military) are either exempted, or we increase income taxes to cover. Eventually, we’ll get to dark grey Toyota Tacomas because only nice people drive those. The extra 5,000 pages of tax code won’t even be noticeable … honest …

I disagree. The EU survives quite well on much higher taxes. I agree that it will hit the economy because the economy obviously believes hydrocarbons to (currently) be the most efficient source of power. I just don’t think it will be a major problem if we can ramp up nuclear power to take its place. Taxing oil and carbon has to be done in conjunction with implementing another power source.

This risk with any taxes, carbon or otherwise, is that they will be squandered. Making fossil fuels more expensive to more closely reflect their environmental cost is at best only half the solution. The other half is to compartmentalize those funds and use them only for green research and the subsidy of green energy, so that consumers actually have alternatives. It’s gratifying that with relatively little incentives we already have products like the Chevy Volt and the Tesla. Tesla already has plans to move from the current paradigm of relatively high cost and limited production into mass production and low cost within about the next two years.

What does it mean to compartmentalize taxes? All the money ever raised from taxes is spent, plus some percentage more (that’s why raising taxes never balances a budget).

If I compartmentalize lottery money for education, all that happens is that money which would go to education from other sources is now freed up to be spent elsewhere.

Not to mention the complexities of who actually gets the money. If green energy gets cheaper than fossils, it’s a pretty straightforward bet Exxon will get more deeply into the green energy business…

Hey, is that splash photo in the link Denmark or Cape Wind?

Nothing. The rich and powerful don’t want anything to be done, so nothing of significance will be done. After all, if millions die in famines and millions more are driven into poverty what do they care? They’ll still be safe and comfortable in their estates and gated communities.

Nonsense, what they claimed is they have a plan.

If you want to really change the world, pick one farm, one house, a barn, the tractors and trucks, and show us how to make it run with out fossil fuels. You can even hook it up to a nuclear power grid, to make it easier.

Show the world, do just one farm and household. Same goes for any other country, group or idealistic visionary who wants to do something about “the problem”.

Throw a million dollars at the problem, and show us how to a modern business and home can run with out fossil fuels.

I know of a man who already did this, on his own. He spent 100,000 dollars US to be able to meet all his energy needs, with zero fossil fuels. With out giving up a single modern luxury. Except for fertilizer of course. Cement and fertilizer are the two big issues. Because it’s already possible to meet all your energy needs with out fossil fuels.

Cement making, steel production, growing food and raising animals, along with trucking and shipping are the things nobody has solved yet, but of course people are working on it.

But it’s like phosphate. With out a cheap source to mine, just like phosphate, making nitrogen is the limiting factor for modern food production. And you can’t do it with out burning fuels.

Certainly the carbon removed by agriculture offsets some of it, especially if the carbon is left in the ground to nurture the soils.

But if fossil fuels just vanished tonight, almost everybody on the planet would start to starve in some way. In weeks, not months.

If The Danish government has a plan to poiduce fertilizer with out fossil fuels, the world wants to know what it is.

:rolleyes:

Repeating what I said and attempting to make is sound like if it was something else or not to the point is really silly.

Well, I guess it is just me, but I think one simple tool to use is the scroll down button on the browser, more details about what Denmark is **planing **and **doing **is there in the page that was cited.

Wait…I thought that in the US the 99% also had 99% of the vote…

Also, under what scenario does ACC cause famine and poverty, and what is the confidence level with which that prediction is made?
I’m personally hoping for longer growing seasons in places that are good at growing stuff, and better yields with higher CO2 levels (low confidence at this point b/c we are so crappy at predicting, but I am Hoping for that Change).

The merchants of doubt are not just dedicated to FUD, they also fund and help elect people to congress that are not really representative of what most of the people do think about the issue.

What it needs to be done is also clear, it is not just to follow examples like what they do in Denmark and other countries that are making good efforts, but also to let most of the independents and moderated republicans out there that the current crop of Republican congress critters are not really representing them in a very important issue.