# What Consequences - if the Revolt in Egypt Fails? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 8, 2011, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650 "2011-02-08T14:58:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/21 "2011-02-10T17:31:25Z")
Mubarak is in conference and is supposed to make a public declaration this afternoon. Speculation is he will step down. He will take the money and run. Now it gets interesting. The national strike seems to have been the last straw. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/22 "2011-02-10T18:51:32Z")
Yup, but I would not get hopes too high - what looks likely is some sort of “interim” military government. That Mubarak would step down always looked likely - the guy’s 82 after all - but this revolt is not really about him as much as it is about who will succeed him - and more significantly, by what method they will be selected, and on what terms. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/23 "2011-02-10T19:05:35Z")
This program has lots of interviews with protesters and leaders. The military is not a great option but it is held in higher esteem than Sulieman and the people in charge. the police are thought of more like the Nazi Gestapo, an instrument of the Mubarak government. There are no short term good options. They want free and open elections. good luck with that. Those who organize and set it up will do it in their favor. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/24 "2011-02-10T21:07:22Z")
Mubarak is transferring power to Sulieman… He is leading his" children" until the election. He wants to amend 6 articles of the constitution. That is in response to the protesters. It will lead the way to ending the marshall law that has been imposed for decades. He says he will not give in to foreign pressure. He will turn power over to Suleiman. He says he will not relent to penalize those who caused the violence and the demonstrations. The people in the square are waving their shoes and shouting him down. It is not clear. He is not leaving and intends to lead but the crawl says he is transferring power to VP. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/25 "2011-02-10T22:38:11Z")
This smells like a setup.Tomorrow the people will flood the streets and the Egyptian army may come down hard on them. Mubarak has to know how the people would react. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/26 "2011-02-10T22:46:11Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > This smells like a setup.Tomorrow the people will flood the streets and the Egyptian army may come down hard on them. Mubarak has to know how the people would react. I don’t think so (though I don’t know); they would have done that last week if they were looking to make an example. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/27 "2011-02-11T03:09:52Z")
He made a point that he would come down on the rabble rousers that are responsible for the crisis. he also blamed foreign influences. He did not take any blame himself. He was very paternalistic is saying he would help his “children”. He emphasized coming down hard ion the trouble makers. He also did not step down making it obvious that tomorrow the people would be out in force. It does not look good. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/28 "2011-02-11T14:47:07Z")
The old dude has to go sometime, one way or the other. Could it be that all of this drama is for the purpose of focusing public ire on the _person_ of Mubarak, so that when he (eventually) steps down or is pushed out by the army or the mob, whoever replaces him can say ‘job well done’ and go back to business as usual without addressing (or only superficially or cosmetically addressing) democratic reform? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/29 "2011-02-11T14:53:44Z")
The regime, which includes the Generals, are trying to concede as little as possible. The army is still ‘disappearing’ people even while pretending to be neutral. It’s all ‘jam tomorrow’ crap intended to get people off the streets. The only two questions are: Will the people act to force the army to take sides by seizing the palace, parliament, state tv etc (the latter has been sealed off with tanks and barbed wire and is being beseiged by demonstrators as I write)? Will the middle ranking officers and soldiers obey the inevitable order to open fire if they do? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/30 "2011-02-11T15:05:28Z")
‘The Presidency’ is making an urgent and important announcement shortly. And Mubarak has taken himself off to Sharm-el-sheik. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/31 "2011-02-11T16:38:15Z")
Well, he’s gone. The question becomes whether this means success or not. To paraphrase Churchill, this is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning … ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650/32 "2011-02-11T16:40:11Z")
Yep, phase one is over, time for the cut scene, then on to phase two. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-consequences-if-the-revolt-in-egypt-fails/570650.md?page=1)