# What currently necessary item will be the soonest to become obsolete? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 9, 2013, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817 "2013-08-09T17:08:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/41 "2013-08-10T15:14:25Z")
Having a hard computer at your desk at work. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/42 "2013-08-10T15:23:13Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > I’ll say simply that hard cash is on it’s way out. I think we’ll have cash around for the rest of our lifetimes at least. But a “smart money gadget”, a combination ID card/payment card/account info device would be all most people ever needed. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/43 "2013-08-10T15:30:30Z")
> [@Heracles](#): > > - Hopefully the doctor’s handscribbled drug prescription. Already gone is some states. I know New York switched over to electronic prescriptions in the Spring. But the doctor may still give you a handwritten paper out of habit/to make you feel better/etc. > [@Crafter\_Man](#): > > Public libraries. How many people borrow books nowadays? If they didn’t provide movies for rent and Internet access, they’d be ghost towns. Many, many people. Library circulation continues to go up even in the face of eBooks (which most libraries now offer). > **[Public Library Use](https://www.ala.org/tools/libfactsheets/alalibraryfactsheet06)** > > Information from recent studies that document public library use and opinions held by individuals about public libraries. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/44 "2013-08-10T15:30:40Z")
I was surprised to see home printers mentioned. Then I realized I can’t recall the last I used one. Probably boarding passes, which I don’t print anymore. The kids would print their school papers, but I think they bring them to school on a thumb drive now. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/45 "2013-08-10T15:32:04Z")
> [@Zsofia](#): > > 24 million items circulated last year just in my building says you’re a bit wrong about that. Yeah. Plus e-books aren’t the same as having a physical book. Physical books are easier to navigate. I could see a lot of personal electronics disappearing if internet access gets better. Gaming devices, DVRs, PCs, DVDs, etc. Both software and hardware will be stored online and you just need a device to connect to the internet to use it. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/46 "2013-08-10T15:35:00Z")
> [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](#): > > HDD hard drives. Once flash memory and solid state drives improve their max capacity to be competitively priced, HDD drives will be history. You do realize that tape drives are still in use, don’t you? What’s more likely to happen IMO is an extension of the tiered approach already in use within digital devices, and with a lot of people with spare $$$. Or, as I suspect “hybrid” drives already do internally. You’ll have your primary storage, where your OS resides, and most frequently used stuff. This will probably be SSD of some kind. Then you’ll have your larger, but slower disk memory where you keep stuff like vacation photos from 10 years ago, etc… I suspect that drive controllers will become sophisticated enough to manage what’s on SSD and what’s on disk automatically in the near future, assuming this route is the way things go. SSDs are great, but they have a long way to go until a 3 TB SSD drive is a) available at all, and b) costs less than $130. As for the OP, I think **Ravenman** is onto something. Regular auto maintenance is going to become a less lucrative business, because auto manufacturers are aiming at “lifetime” parts more and more. For example, most new cars don’t call for 3000 mile oil changes, and start at 6k, and many have 10k intervals these days. Transmission fluid changes are at 100k for many vehicles, tires last 60-80k, differential fluid often doesn’t come with change intervals or recommendations, and there are brake pads and rotors that last 100k as well (ceramic ones). So assuming that the trend holds and people continue buying new cars after 5-6 years, auto maintenance will decrease, especially the regular stuff. I think a lot of the things in this thread are ones that suddenly have an alternative where none previously existed, but that doesn’t mean that things like locks and keys, mailboxes and libraries are going to go away. In the case of libraries, they’ll morph from being a repository for print books to being more of an access point for online collections, etc… I used the shit out of my grad school library resources, but only actually entered the library ONE time, to set up my account. Otherwise I used the school’s Lexis-Nexus subscriptions, and periodical accounts (with back issues into the 1950s) with relish and abandon. I suspect that public libraries will do something similar- you want to read Popular Mechanics? Go to the library and look at it online. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/47 "2013-08-10T15:44:02Z")
Triple beam balances and dial-face bathroom scales are almost completely dead. Cheap electronics and manufacturing will make them go away. I’m always surprised when I see a TV or vacuum repair shop still around. Rebuilding channel selector knobs used to make people a lot of money. > [@divemaster](#): > > We got locked outside the room, while the pets were inside. Our key cards did not work, and the maid and the manager also could not get into the room. After hours of trying and contemplating options, we went with the manual override. A sledgehammer. The only way I can see this happening is if your key card had expired and the mag stripe writer device couldn’t be used to make a new card. The doors themselves are generally battery powered. The housekeeping cards should have worked, though. Did everyone else in the place get locked out, too? I can hardly think of a less appealing place to ride out a storm than a motel without power. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/48 "2013-08-10T16:22:08Z")
> [@jnglmassiv](#): > > I’m always surprised when I see a TV or vacuum repair shop still around. A Dyson is a $500 purchase. Buying a new one is not going to be my first option if it breaks. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/49 "2013-08-10T16:31:49Z")
I write checks all the time, and just ordered 2 boxes yesterday. I don’t like paying bills online, or using debit cards. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/50 "2013-08-10T19:07:46Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > A Dyson is a $500 purchase. Buying a new one is not going to be my first option if it breaks. Sure, same with your TV but either one hardly ever breaks. Like so many other things, they last longer than their desirable lifespans. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGrenze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/dbc845/32.png) [@KarlGrenze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGrenze)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/51 "2013-08-10T19:42:16Z")
> [@jnglmassiv](#): > > Sure, same with your TV but either one hardly ever breaks. Like so many other things, they last longer than their desirable lifespans. Desirable lifetimes vary by people and appliances. My parents finally replaced a fridge they’ve had for almost two decades when the motor finally failed and the fridge stopped working. I’m sure that’s about a decade longer than what it was expected to last. Similarly, they just repaired (for less than a 100 bucks) an older than 10-years-old washing machine. And cash will go extinct the day electronic card use and payment is available to every street vendor in the world that has delicious street food or intricate craft to sell. Yes, I know there are ways now apps that can be used to accept cc, but again, not every business has it. ---
**Author:** ![Quimby](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/22d042/32.png) [@Quimby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quimby)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/52 "2013-08-10T21:12:24Z")
> [@jnglmassiv](#): > > Sure, same with your TV but either one hardly ever breaks. Like so many other things, they last longer than their desirable lifespans. FWIW I had to have my Dyson vacuum repaired. They ended up sending me back a refurbished one. But I sent it to the company itself not a corner repair shop. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/53 "2013-08-10T21:28:17Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > I write checks all the time, and just ordered 2 boxes yesterday. I don’t like paying bills online, or using debit cards. Oh yeah, I go through a box of checks every couple of months. I don’t mind using my card for day-to-day purchases, but I pay _all_ my bills by check, with the exception of my mortgage. > [@jnglmassiv](#): > > The only way I can see this happening is if your key card had expired and the mag stripe writer device couldn’t be used to make a new card. The doors themselves are generally battery powered. The housekeeping cards should have worked, though. Did everyone else in the place get locked out, too? I can hardly think of a less appealing place to ride out a storm than a motel without power. It was pretty miserable. The whole city (or at least the part we were in) was out of power. All the traffic lights were out and grocery stores closed. We had gone to a gas station (the only thing open) to buy some food, which consisted of jack mackerel and beanie weenies. Whatever we could buy with cash that came out of a can. Anyway, I think what screwed up the door lock was not so much the lack of power, but the storm was so bad water got all up in the mechanism. This was a motel, open to the elements, and our room was an end unit. I don’t think other people had the same problem. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/54 "2013-08-10T21:45:39Z")
> [@aNewLeaf](#): > > I think we’ll have cash around for the rest of our lifetimes at least. Guess it depends on where you live. Not using cash at all wasn’t an option when I was in the U.S., but around here (Norway) the only things I would still pay for in cash are narcotics and prostitutes. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2013, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/55 "2013-08-10T21:50:19Z")
Grow your own dope, trade with hookers. (Or whore yourself out for drugs). Problem solved! ---
**Author:** ![Daylate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9dc877/32.png) [@Daylate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Daylate)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2013, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/56 "2013-08-11T01:23:24Z")
Libraries going out? Stats for the King County Library System (Just one county in the State of Washington). > [@](#): > > 2012 > A year of new service milestones: 10.1 million visitors; 22 million items circulated; now 48 KCLS community libraries, including Enumclaw annexation; new facility in Duvall, and entirely new library for the new town of Newcastle. Doesn’t look to be on the verge of collapse. ---
**Author:** ![jnglmassiv](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f07891/32.png) [@jnglmassiv](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jnglmassiv)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2013, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/57 "2013-08-11T02:11:45Z")
> [@Quimby](#): > > FWIW I had to have my Dyson vacuum repaired. They ended up sending me back a refurbished one. But I sent it to the company itself not a corner repair shop. That helps support my end of the argument but also the other! Obviously, these things _can_ break and malfunction. If there is a major manufacturing flaw, it is more likely to pop up during the warranty period and wouldn’t go through an independent repair shop. They are certainly handy to have around but it seems like a tough business to keep going much less get started. Re: libraries. I think this is a good one. I used to frequent but haven’t stepped foot inside for 6-8 years. How do these circulation numbers compare to 10 and 20 years ago? The whole point is trends. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2013, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/58 "2013-08-11T03:05:05Z")
Every time I go to the library the place is full of people. I’m not sure what logical reason there is for libraries going out of style. It’s a subset of items, not an item, but the consumer-level “instamatic” camera is nearly dead. There will always be a need for **good** cameras, the kind of proper SLR a professional uses. But cheaper cameras are dying out because now they’re on your phone. I can’t remember the last time I or anyone I know bought a cheap camera. ---
**Author:** ![Doggo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/87869e/32.png) [@Doggo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doggo)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2013, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/59 "2013-08-11T04:14:04Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > Are you posting from the 80’s ? Those have already become as obsolete as they’re ever going to be. Travellers cheques are still widely used in Thailand. Perhaps the OP should have added “in the US” to the heading. The vast majority of the world’s population don’t have access to the technology most on here take for granted. Imagine that you are a goat herder in Ethiopia and then ask if keyless locks are relevant. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2013, 9:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817/60 "2013-08-11T09:19:16Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s a subset of items, not an item, but the consumer-level “instamatic” camera is nearly dead. There will always be a need for **good** cameras, the kind of proper SLR a professional uses. But cheaper cameras are dying out because now they’re on your phone. I can’t remember the last time I or anyone I know bought a cheap camera. Waterproof cameras are pretty cheap and people won’t stop wanting to take pictures while on boats or at the beach any time soon. Still, your general point stands, it’s generally not a good idea to lug around two devices when a phone can take passable shots. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-currently-necessary-item-will-be-the-soonest-to-become-obsolete/665817.md?page=4)