# What did Carl Sagan get wrong? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 10, 2023, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476 "2023-04-10T23:27:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/21 "2023-04-11T20:31:04Z")
If you only have a sample size of one, I’d say that is pretty weak sauce. And if we are going to use a sample size of one, I think it’s pretty safe to assume that any species who thinks and acts like we do is going to wipe themselves out long before they advanced to the point to where they can traverse the universe. In order for them to achieve that point, they would have to think and act completely different than we do. ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/22 "2023-04-11T20:37:38Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > If you only have a sample size of one, I’d say that is pretty weak sauce. Weaker than a sample size of zero? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/23 "2023-04-11T20:38:00Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > And if we are going to use a sample size of one, I think it’s pretty safe to assume that any species who thinks and acts like we do is going to wipe themselves out long before they advanced to the point to where they can traverse the universe. So, you are absolutely sure that we will wipe ourselves out? I don’t think it’s quite that safe to assume that. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/24 "2023-04-11T20:51:53Z")
The difference between a sample size of one and a sample size of zero is infinitesimal. Especially when you have no idea how big the sample itself is. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/25 "2023-04-11T20:52:51Z")
Lol. Just look at the trajectory of humans since the industrial age. You really think we have a chance? /Cfcs /Leaded gasoline just to name a few. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/26 "2023-04-11T21:28:24Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > > > No, I objected to your mischaracterization that I was “assuming aliens think like we do,” when I quite explicitly did not say that > > You did the exact same thing Sagan did. You literally used an example of what humans have done in the past as a reason to believe what aliens might do to us in the future. > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > No, I didn’t. What I wrote was: > > > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > > > When human societies meet the more powerful one tends to dominated the other or subjugate it for labor but to at least preserve some subset of the population for utility. An extraterrestrial intelligence with the ability to transit interstellar distances may be so technologically advanced that they wouldn’t even regard humanity as worthy of regard or protection, or worse yet a potential threat to be eliminated before it grows into something dangerous. Game theory has generally shown that working to one another’s mutual benefit is generally the strongest/dominant strategy in simulations. And if we look at the vector of progress, among humans, as our ability to swap ideas and validate ideas has improved, we’ve reduced negative activities (war, slavery, murder, etc.) and we’ve strengthened our focus on things like preserving the landscape, finding more sustainable ways to do the same thing as we do today, etc. If you track that vector forward by a few hundred, the safest expectation would probably be Gene Roddenberry’s Great Directive. But, unlike in Star Trek where they can’t help themselves from trying to interfere, we’d expect fairly strong adherence. As @Stranger_On_A_Train notes, we’re basically just ants. And, as such, there’s not much compulsion to interfere. Who cares what ants do? ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/27 "2023-04-11T22:04:37Z")
The type of extraordinary claims that most demand extraordinary evidence are those that require overturning our understanding of physical laws. If you’re going to claim (for example) the existence of extraterrestrials that can’t be seen or detected by other human senses or technology, based on handwaving without rigorous proofs, you’ll be laughed at. Homeopathy is an example of a “discipline” that’s never overcome that problem. ‘‘I worry that, especially as the millennium edges nearer, pseudoscience and superstition will seem year by year more tempting, the siren song of unreason more sonorous and attractive.’’ ‘‘The candle flame gutters. Its little pool of light trembles. Darkness gathers. The demons begin to stir.’’ - Carl Sagan, 1995 ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/28 "2023-04-11T22:46:15Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > Just look at the trajectory of humans since the industrial age. You mean increasing prosperity, lower poverty, less violence and war? > [@Grrr](#): > > You really think we have a chance? Yes, I do. You apparently think the chance is 0%. I have my worries, but I’m not as confident as you in the extinction of the human race. > [@Grrr](#): > > /Cfcs > /Leaded gasoline just to name a few. You mean to name a few (is 2 a few?) things that we have addressed and solved? If you’d said global warming or nuclear war, then at least I’d join in concerns about things that are still a concern. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/29 "2023-04-11T22:51:19Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > The reality would probably be even worse. When human societies meet the more powerful one tends to dominated the other or subjugate it for labor but to at least preserve some subset of the population for utility. An extraterrestrial intelligence with the ability to transit interstellar distances may be so technologically advanced that they wouldn’t even regard humanity as worthy of regard or protection, or worse yet a potential threat to be eliminated before it grows into something dangerous. It is highly doubtful that there is anything humans could offer that would justify preservation unless the extraterrestrials have some innate reason for doing so. But we would have to have something of value to them, or be an actual worry to them. Human societies always have one thing in common: consonant biology. Other humans are a concern because they might start misceginating with our people. The commonality is a major factor in how unfamiliar societies relate to each other.        Space aliens will almost certainly have different biology from us, so that lack of consonance would likely be a benefit to us. Chances are any interactions would be very limited, and social concerns like unsanctioned schtupping would not arise.        My feeling has always been that “they” will not be coming to us and grandly announcing themselves. If FTL of some sort is feasible, we will have to meet them on the level field of comparable technology.        I mean, just open Celestia, travel out a hundred light years, turn around and see if you can find your way back. We are an invisible point of light on the trailing edge of nowheresville, not even worth a hyperspace bypass. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/30 "2023-04-11T23:00:25Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > I discussed one of the problems with the book Cosmos 11 years ago in a post: > > [infinite regression - #28 by Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/infinite-regression/644712/28) > > The idea that an atom could be a universe of its own (or a solar system of its own) is arbitrary. It is based on the idea from a century or so ago that an atom is like the solar system with electrons spinning around the nucleus. Nothing like this is currently believed by physicists. Some things that Sagan said were silly. I don’t think that example is fair to Sagan I read the Henry Hasse short story in Asimov’s collection of sci-fi of the 30s and IIRC it was based on the popular misconception at the time that atoms really were very much like miniature solar systems. Sagan was surely well aware that this is nonsense, and this is clearly not what he was referring to. ISTM he was invoking the much more abstract metaphysical idea that at some irreducible and impenetrable level of elementary particle there exist entire universes in an infinite regression, and that our own universe is just such a particle in a regression of infinitely larger ones. This is pretty whimsical and almost certainly not subject to examination by any known scientific method, but is no more crazy than Everett’s “many worlds” hypothesis, which is not the same thing but equally unprovable. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2023, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/31 "2023-04-11T23:36:20Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Space aliens will almost certainly have different biology from us Curious what you are basing this certainty on? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/32 "2023-04-12T12:44:33Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Bill Bryson’s celebrated but more-wrong-than-right _A Short History of Nearly Everything_ Bryson made some errors, but the book was certainly mostly right. ---
**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/33 "2023-04-12T13:05:29Z")
I thought this was pretty neat… when the new director of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center was sworn in last week, she placed her hand on one of Sagan’s books. [![](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52812197535_0d3f4df9e1_n.jpg) ](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/52812197535_0d3f4df9e1_n.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/34 "2023-04-12T13:08:22Z")
And the proof that it was indeed extraterrestrial would be the “extraordinary” part separating that evidences from the run of the mill radio emissions in the universe. Extraordinary doesn’t necessarily mean “sensationalistic”, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/35 "2023-04-12T13:57:28Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > Assuming that aliens would act better than human colonists did is, also, assuming that aliens think like us. “We should be nice to people who are different from us,” is as much a human concept as, “We should exploit people as much as we can.” The fundamental problem with trying to figure out how aliens would think, is that _it’s a human doing the thinking_. Fundamentally, we will always end up making an analogy with some mode of human thought, even if only to use it in contrast to how the aliens think. A truly, fundamentally alien way of thinking is, almost by definition, impossible for any human to come up with. The day we meet an actual alien, we’ll either discover we have something in common, or we will be entirely blown away by something they say that literally no human ever even thought about before. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/36 "2023-04-12T14:18:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Bryson made some errors, but the book was certainly mostly right. I have not comprehensively read the book but despite claims of having his research vetted by experts in every field he touches on, in even a cursory skim of a few chapters I found at least one error per page, many of them fundamental conceptual misstatements or citing quantities that were off by orders of magnitude in topics from planetology to evolutionary biology. I grew so frustrated in reading errors that could have been easily corrected by checking an encyclopaedia or reviewed by someone with even a general science education that I just gave up on it and put it back on the shelf. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/37 "2023-04-12T14:56:49Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > Some things that Sagan said were silly. I found the idea strange, haunting and evocative. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2023, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/38 "2023-04-12T15:03:15Z")
A few of the professors in medical school were fond of saying “Half the stuff we teach you will be wrong. We just don’t know which half”. As it turns out, most of what we learned still seems useful. A few ideas have been discredited. A lot more about some things is now known. Of course Sagan wrote decades ago, made some errors, and our understanding of some things has improved. But these improvements were made by people standing on the shoulders of giants. Like Sagan - one of the clearest scientific communicators I can think of. Some people instead criticize trivial points, proving little. “If I could not see as far as other people, it was because giants were standing on my shoulders”. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2023, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/39 "2023-04-13T02:30:43Z")
I don’t think that _Cosmos_ is a bad book. In fact, I think it’s a rather good book for introducing a young person to many basic ideas of science. (Although it’s not as good as _Music of the Spheres_ by Guy Murchie, which is the book that made me decide to become as scientist.) It’s just got a few silly things in it that distract from the best parts of the book. One of those things is the idea of infinite regression. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2023, 8:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476/40 "2023-04-13T08:21:54Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > The fundamental problem with trying to figure out how aliens would think, is that _it’s a human doing the thinking_. Fundamentally, we will always end up making an analogy with some mode of human thought, even if only to use it in contrast to how the aliens think. I mean, yes, but if aliens ever manage to reach here on their own, we’ll probably have a _few_ things in common. First of all, they’ll have both a theoretical and applied concept of math, physics and chemistry - the universal languages. Second of all, they’ll be tool users. And third of all, because a single creature can’t build a starship by themselves, they’ll probably be social animals of some sort. It’s not a lot, but it’s something. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-carl-sagan-get-wrong/982476.md?page=3)