# What did Science Fiction writers miss completly? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [March 3, 2008, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918 "2008-03-03T05:07:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/101 "2008-03-04T19:47:20Z")
[QUOTE=BMalion] This gentleman has a hilarious look at [Heinlein’s predictions.](http://www.xibalba.demon.co.uk/jbr/heinlein.html) [/QUOTE] Heh. And people don’t want to believe me when I tell them that not only was Heinlein insane, he was scary insane. ---
**Author:** ![GomiBoy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b2d939/32.png) [@GomiBoy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GomiBoy)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2008, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/102 "2008-03-04T19:53:35Z")
[QUOTE=Exapno Mapcase] Heh. And people don’t want to believe me when I tell them that not only was Heinlein insane, he was scary insane. [/QUOTE] Fun to read, though. He told good stories. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/103 "2008-03-05T18:29:33Z")
More evidence that the SF writers who said that draconian government policies would be necessary to curb population growth were wrong: [China, one of the few countries that actually tried something like this, is re-thinking its “one child” policy](http://www.slate.com/id/2185834). It’s not really needed any more, because > [@](#): > > surveys say that sixty percent [of young Chinese couples] want no more than two kids; few want more than three Another thing they got wrong: there have been video phones available for a very long time, but they’ve never caught on. > [@BMalion](#): > > This gentleman has a hilarious look at Heinlein’s predictions. Actually, one thing he got wrong: > [@](#): > > there will not be that all-destroying nuclear holocaust that forms the background of so many S.F. stories. There are three reasons for this: The United States, the Soviet Union, and the People’s Republic of China. Why? Because the three strongest countries in the world (while mutually detesting each the other two) have nothing to gain and everything to lose in an all-out swapping of H-bombs. Because Kremlin bosses are not idiots and neither are those in Beijing (Peiping) (Peking). If another country – say Israel, India or the South African Republic – gets desperate and tosses an A- or H-bomb, that country is likely to receive three phone calls simultaneously, one from each of the Big Three: “You have exactly three minutes to back down. Then we destroy you.” After World War II I never expected that our safety would ever depend on a massive split in Communist International – but that is exactly what has happened. > Eh? What is so magical about there being three blocs? There _is_ something special about a three-way duel in game theory. If you find yourself in a three-way duel where you can fire once per turn, you don’t want to fire. The reason is, you will kill one of your opponents, leaving your other opponent with no choice but to kill you. Three nuclear superpowers may in fact be an unusually stable configuration. ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/104 "2008-03-05T18:44:36Z")
[QUOTE=Anne Neville] Actually, one thing he got wrong: There _is_ something special about a three-way duel in game theory. If you find yourself in a three-way duel where you can fire once per turn, you don’t want to fire. The reason is, you will kill one of your opponents, leaving your other opponent with no choice but to kill you. Three nuclear superpowers may in fact be an unusually stable configuration. [/QUOTE] Who got it wrong, were you quoting the critic, or Heinlein? ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/105 "2008-03-05T19:04:51Z")
> [@](#): > > Another thing they got wrong: there have been video phones available for a very long time, but they’ve never caught on. As I noted way up, writers (and movies) originally depicted television as a method of communication, rather than of entertainment. While it’s true that some sort of “picture phone” has been around for a long time, it hasn’t been a felicitous experience. It’s been too complex and expensive for most of its history, and now it’s too strobe-like and jerky (as anyone who’s teleconferenced or used two-way webcamming knows). I predict that picturephoning will eventually come into its own when it’s decent quality and cheap. ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/106 "2008-03-05T19:12:52Z")
Jetpacks. I win. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/107 "2008-03-05T19:23:00Z")
[QUOTE=BMalion] Jetpacks. I win. [/QUOTE] I guess you could also add flying cars and monochrome jumpsuits into that mix as well. ---
**Author:** ![MarcusF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/67e7ee/32.png) [@MarcusF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarcusF)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/108 "2008-03-05T19:30:13Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by_ **BMalion** : > This gentleman has a hilarious look at [Heinlein’s predictions](http://www.xibalba.demon.co.uk/jbr/heinlein.html). I agree it’s hilarious - it’s hilarious that someone spent so much time picking though a 1950 magazine article just to prove Heinlein wrong :dubious: Why on earth would you expect him to have a better than average power of prediction? When he put mobile phones or monocyles or telepathic twins in his stories Heinlein was either set dressing - giving an instant feel that his story is set in the future - or using the as a plot devices. Some of them came to pass, some of them didn’t. No surprise there! ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2008, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/109 "2008-03-05T19:37:41Z")
[QUOTE=BMalion] Who got it wrong, were you quoting the critic, or Heinlein? [/QUOTE] The critic. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/110 "2008-03-06T01:10:49Z")
Didn’t important messages get sent in sealed capsules? Sorta retro-I recall that you needed a special tool/code to open these capsules. odd device for a culture that could travel between stars! ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/111 "2008-03-06T01:27:14Z")
[QUOTE=BMalion] Jetpacks. I win. [/QUOTE] [There’s a reason for that.](http://www.webcomicsnation.com/shaenongarrity/skinhorse/series.php?view=archive&chapter=26312&name=skinhorse#strip3) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/112 "2008-03-06T02:33:12Z")
[QUOTE=MarcusF] I agree it’s hilarious - it’s hilarious that someone spent so much time picking though a 1950 magazine article just to prove Heinlein wrong :dubious: Why on earth would you expect him to have a better than average power of prediction? [/QUOTE] Really? You’ve never run into a Heinlein fan? You’ve never even read a Heinlein thread here on the Dope? Heinlein Love is a bigger and more devoted cult than Scientology. ---
**Author:** ![Booker57](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Booker57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Booker57)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/113 "2008-03-06T03:08:05Z")
[QUOTE=Knorf] The biggest thing sci-fi writers consistently failed to predict, I agree, was the demise of the Soviet Union. [/QUOTE] The writers for “Laugh-In” did a “News of the future” that in 1968 or 69 foretold of the breakdown of the Berlin wall. They only missed it by a few months. Scary. ---
**Author:** ![Pushkin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ee59a6/32.png) [@Pushkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pushkin)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/114 "2008-03-06T12:22:22Z")
[QUOTE=John DiFool] There are some cell phones on the market which aren’t any bigger than TNG-style com badges-frankly in 3-400 years I’d expect wireless communication to involve tiny implants in the outer ear, unnoticeable by villians who would otherwise take your communicators away. [/QUOTE] Imagine being taken prisoner by the Klingons, who aren’t going to need much excuse to gouge your ears out anyway 😛 ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/115 "2008-03-06T13:05:53Z")
[QUOTE=Anne Neville] The critic. [/QUOTE] But you quoted Heinlein. ---
**Author:** ![MarcusF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/67e7ee/32.png) [@MarcusF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarcusF)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/116 "2008-03-06T13:50:04Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by_ **Exapno Mapcase** : > Really? You’ve never run into a Heinlein fan? You’ve never even read a Heinlein thread here on the Dope? > > Heinlein Love is a bigger and more devoted cult than Scientology. I **am** a Heinlein fan 😃 A fan of his fiction. Yes, I conceed there are “fans” who worship every word he wrote and no doubt expect him to reapear to lead them to salvation, but I still think putting that much effort into disproving the predictions from one article is every bit as obsessive. ---
**Author:** ![MarcusF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/67e7ee/32.png) [@MarcusF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarcusF)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/117 "2008-03-06T13:54:50Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by_ **BMalion:** > But you quoted Heinlein. I think the bit \*\*Anne Neville \*\* is pointing to is: > [@](#): > > Eh? What is so magical about there being three blocs? which is the critic’s comment on the Heinlein passage. She’s pointing out there is something special about three blocs ---
**Author:** ![The\_Them](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/898d66/32.png) [@The\_Them](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Them)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/118 "2008-03-06T15:51:05Z")
From sheer blind luck, **Clarke** predicted the surface appearance of Iapetus (a black ring extending into the bright half of the moon, with a black dot at the center) in _2001: A Space Odyssey._ I read somewhere that when the pics came in from Voyager 1, the folks at NASA mailed Mr. Clarke some nice prints at his home in Colombo. ETA: 2001 the book was a voyage to Saturn, not Jupiter like in the movie. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/119 "2008-03-06T19:12:30Z")
My two primary examples of flaws in old (generally pre-1970, but some later) are; 1\> Software. You just built the machine/robot/whatever and turned it on. Without any input, it had knowledge, reason and deduction. No one predicted that the richest man in the world would be the guy who wrote the code. 2\> Fuel use. Like someone said earlier, a skyscraper full of explosives just to get to the Moon. Yet every scifi rocket and spaceship even up to recent days seems to be either completely devoid of fuel, or have very little of it. ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2008, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918/120 "2008-03-06T19:29:14Z")
[QUOTE=CalMeacham] I predict that picturephoning will eventually come into its own when it’s decent quality and cheap. [/QUOTE] “Oh, Hi Cal. Just calling to let… oh. I see your on the can. Um… I’ll call back.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-did-science-fiction-writers-miss-completly/439918.md?page=7)