What did Science Fiction writers miss completly?

Cafe Society
61

[QUOTE=The New and Improved Superman]
This is not science fiction, per se, but it’s amazing to me (in retrospect) how much of mid-20th century SF assumed that the U.S./U.S.S.R. coldwar standoff would still be taking place in the 21st century. Even into the 1980s, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was an unworkable mess of a nation, a lot of the SF presumes that there would be an eastern-communist/western-capitalist superpower standoff in place.
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Would’ve been cool. :frowning:

[QUOTE=The New and Improved Superman]
Likewise, even after the iranian revolution occured, I can’t think of any SF (or future-based fiction to be more accurate) predicting the rise of fundamentalist islam as a major political force in the world.
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I recall a story from the old Omni magazine – I think it was “Some of My Best Friends Are Americans” – depicting a conquered U.S. under Arab/Muslim rule and Shari’a law. But it wasn’t memorable; crappy as '50s Red-Scare material, and not by accident.

62

One major development that was overlooked by a hell of a lot of science fiction authors: women’s lib.

63

How about mp3 players?

eta: of course after I post I realize tape players could be the precedent, but being able to carry entire music catalogs in your pocket? Any cites so specific?

64

[QUOTE=tds1273]
How about mp3 players?

eta: of course after I post I realize tape players could be the precedent, but being able to carry entire music catalogs in your pocket? Any cites so specific?
[/QUOTE]

The closest thing I can think of is the earpieces in Fahrenheit 451. I think those are actually radio receivers, but they kind of predict people taking music everywhere with them and listening to it all the time, and you can’t always tell if someone is using them so you can talk to them and they won’t hear you.

65

Asimov , even though he was himself a scientist (Ph.D in chemistry) missed a lot of stuff: like genetic engineering, and pocket sized computers. His “FOUNDATION” series also had some weird ideas-the Galactic Empire: it has a technology so advanced, that travel between stars is possible-yet, they have a monarchical government!
What all SCI-Fi writers missed (in their predictions of the future) was mankind’s inability to put aside superstition: a large number of Americans today believe in ghosts, evil spirits, and astrology :eek:

66

[QUOTE=Knorf]
Isaac Asimov wrote several short stories about a global network of computers, which he called “Multivac,” which at least initially seems an awful lot like the internet. (In Asimov’s stories, a intelligent entity emerges from the huge number of nodes and connections.) But you have a network, and individual terminals which interface with it. Internet.

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Actually, that isn’t so apropos, since Multivac is almost always presented not as a global network, but essentially as one giant super-mainframe housed in a secure location - one computer so big that very few people or companies on the planet need to have a computer anything nearly as powerful. Yes, there are network connections made TO multivac, but with the central processor in just one place it’s not much like the internet we have now. That’s something that a lot of SF people writing about computers missed.

Of course, it’s true that SF is about the attitudes and ideals of the time when it’s written more than a genuine attempt to predict the future.

67

Look up to my earlier post. Asimov used miniature computers in the original Foundation stories, even calling them “pocket calculators”, and Asimov bragged about getting the color of the readout right.

I’m not denying that he missed stuff, but you’ve chosen an example that he DID predict.

68

I’m thinking about changing my username to Rad Bradbury.

69

[QUOTE=runner pat]
Oops. I Googled the book and the first link had 1994. Maybe that was a later printing.

See what I mean about accuracy? :smiley:
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If we must settle it, for sale right now there’s an Advance Reading Copy of Ender’s Game dedicated by Card to his editor.. the date on the book is 1985. We can conclude it’s a 1985 title.
Of course, were one to nitpick, Ender’s Game was originally a short story published in Analog in 1977…

70

[QUOTE=RedSwinglineOne]
I think it is interesting looking back that most of the first Star Wars involved the Empire trying to ‘recover the stolen data tapes’. The blueprint was loaded into a droid which had to be flown across the galaxy. The information was never duplicated, transferred to a more conveniant storage system, or broadcast. Now, we take it for granted that any piece of information can be immediately transmitted anywhere in the world. Once something is out there, there is no getting it back.
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To be fair, Star Wars happened in the past… You know, “A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.” :slight_smile:

71

As far as I know, the earliest story that posits something like the internet was a 1909 story, The Machine Stops, by E.M. Forster.

Most of the things that SF writers missed are things that didn’t happen based on what they saw was possible with extrapolated technology:

Nuclear power has not been widely adopted. People way back in the 50s knew that fossil fuels shouldn’t be counted on for a long-term source of portable power. The concept of fuel cells dates back to 1839, and several SF authors posited batteries/power cells charged by nuclear power, with hydrocarbons being used only for plastics.

Futuristic weapons (railguns, lasers, smart rocks from orbit) are not widespread, and the best of them are still barely practical even though the technology for them is half a century old or more.

Computer analysis of patterns is still pretty bad. I remember reading a book called David’s Sling from 1988 that — while managing to hit the mark on a lot of developments that have taken place, and a few that are still pending — posits much better fuzzy logic than we can do with processors that are so powerful that they are probably beyond what anyone would have thought possible 20 years ago.

Mass transit is not common in most of the world, and in places where it is, is based on technology that was common 100 years ago. Many, many authors thought that mass transit would be the only way to go. It didn’t take much predictive power even in the 40s and 50s to see traffic jams and usable land being eaten up by roads as a future concern. Massive moving walkways, fast trains, evacuated underground tube shuttles, and automated cars are a few of the ideas thrown out there. Instead, we have halfway decent trains in just a few nations, running between large cities. That’s about it as far as mass transit. Even the fastest trains still run on rails, making them nothing more than mature 19th century tech.

Social changes are a lot harder to hit, and almost no SF writers, hard or soft, would venture to place much weight on their predictions about society 20 or 30 years from now. They might reasonably extrapolate some patterns of behavior based on new technology, but that’s nothing more than guessing how people would use the new tools. Someone predicting a future form of music or fashion is probably going to have a worse success rate than Nostradamus. Writers smart enough to come up with good stories know that.

72

No one predicted Youtube. Anyone with a video phone can upload a video for all to see. If you need to show the world a crucial message, you no longer need to break into one of those top secret terminals that can broadcast to every single TV set.

73

[QUOTE=SSG Schwartz]
Off the top of my head, none predicted cell phones and the internet. Most focused on rocket cars and video phones. Look at Jules Verne, he wrote about the traveling under the sea and around the globe, and that happened, but no one ever wrote about a phone you could carry with you. What else did they miss the mark on?

SSG Schwartz
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Robert Heinlein discussed cell phones offhandedly in his 1948 Space Cadet- in the first chapter, two characters discussed their “wallet phones”, one talking to his parents on his and the other stating that he intentionally packed it in his suitcase so his parents couldn’t call him.

74

[QUOTE=Anne Neville]
I recently watched a show on the History Channel about sex in Hinduism. The show included footage of the temples mentioned by Arthur C. Clarke in I Remember Babylon. In the story, the man promoting satellite TV shows them as an example of things he will show on his satellite network that can’t be broadcast on regular TV.

The same story, incidentally, also predicted TV programming intended to appeal to gays and lesbians.

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If you remember, this was a plot by the Chinese to destroy the west through pornography. If they are responsible for internet and cable porn, we appear to be sucking it up, as it were, without any ill effects.

75

[QUOTE=SSG Schwartz]
Off the top of my head, none predicted cell phones and the internet. Most focused on rocket cars and video phones. Look at Jules Verne, he wrote about the traveling under the sea and around the globe, and that happened, but no one ever wrote about a phone you could carry with you. What else did they miss the mark on?

SSG Schwartz
[/QUOTE]

Heinlein in Space Cadet has the protagonist keeping his phone in his luggage and not wanting to answer it, sort of a proto cell phone.

76

[QUOTE=SSG Schwartz]
Off the top of my head, none predicted cell phones and the internet.
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[QUOTE=MEBuckner]
Cell phones (though not the actual name) are “predicted” in Robert Heinlein’s 1948 Space Cadet, complete with the issues of potentially embarassing conversations in public places and the problem of always being available–a juvenile (college age) character comments that he packed his phone in his bag to keep his parents from being able to reach him.

Of course Venus, the first manned expedition to which was in 1971 (although none of the crew thereof survived), has swamps and intelligent natives, etc.
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[QUOTE=appleciders]
Robert Heinlein discussed cell phones offhandedly in his 1948 Space Cadet- in the first chapter, two characters discussed their “wallet phones”, one talking to his parents on his and the other stating that he intentionally packed it in his suitcase so his parents couldn’t call him.
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[QUOTE=aruvqan]
Heinlein in Space Cadet has the protagonist keeping his phone in his luggage and not wanting to answer it, sort of a proto cell phone.
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Robert Heinlein predicted cell phones once, for 20 minutes, in 1948.

77

[QUOTE=The New and Improved Superman]

Likewise, even after the iranian revolution occured, I can’t think of any SF (or future-based fiction to be more accurate) predicting the rise of fundamentalist islam as a major political force in the world.
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Well, there’s Dune and the Zensunni Fremen Jyhad …it just takes a while, is all.

78

[QUOTE=MEBuckner]
Robert Heinlein predicted cell phones once, for 20 minutes, in 1948.
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I don’t think there is much Heinlein didn’t predict, to be fair. He predicted:
Satellites (especially geo-synchronous ones)
Waterbeds
Rise of religious fundamentalism in the US
Abandonment of the space program
Cell phones (or analogs of)
Society moving away from racism, but never leaving it entirely behind
America winning against Communism

Lots of good stuff he did - one of my favourite authors :slight_smile:

79

Twice, at least – Space Cadet and The Puppet Masters, both noted above.

He also suggested portable handheld phone units with landkline bases. I suspect he’s responsible for a lot of the visual throwaways in the movie Operation Moonbase, and this is one of the cuter bits. They don’t explicitly point it out, but if you pay attention you notce that the telephone handsets used in the film aren’t connected to the bases by cords. They each have a little antenna, and there’s a matching antenna on the base on the desk. That’s the kind of phone we’re still using in our kitchen.

This is the sort of cute throwaway detail that Heinlein himself called an “easy trick”. He was more concerned with longer-reaching changes and cultural movements, although he was a master of these little mini-predictions. One that hasn’t come to pass is the “dilating door”. Heinlein uses it as another throwaway “The door dilated…” , without explaining further imn at least two of his novels. Larry Niven liked it so much that he appropriasted it himself. And it’s sort of appeared on the screen – in the movie version of The Puppet Masters a doorway actually DOES dilate, although it’s in the Puuppet Masters’ reguime rather than that of the humans.

80

In Adventure Comics #369, published in June of 1968, a charcater Shadow Lass mentions “school-a-thon,” which is simply going to school via computer. The frame shows her with a computer setup and headphones.

In 1968!