What did Science Fiction writers miss completly?

[CalMeacham]

Perhaps Heinlein read Baum when he was a kid?

Highly likely, seeing all the Oz references in The Number of the Beast and his other works.

[ralph124c]

What I find interesting: none of the Sci-Fi futurists ever speculated much on the very conservative nature of society-its easy to extrapolate about Iphones and rocket ships, but why are we still laboring on with a 13th century legal system (laws written in archaic , obscure language); and our 19th century government runs amuck, wasting resources at a furious pace.

[BMalion]

@ralph124c

What I find interesting: none of the Sci-Fi futurists ever speculated much on the very conservative nature of society-its easy to extrapolate about Iphones and rocket ships, but why are we still laboring on with a 13th century legal system (laws written in archaic , obscure language); and our 19th century government runs amuck, wasting resources at a furious pace.

Because we’re still human.

[Nava]

@CalMeacham

Except predictions about travel to the moon assumed that we’d have to wait for nuclear rockets, and once you had a nuclear rocket you could just blast off, aim for the moon, land, blast off again, aim for the earth, and land again, all on one tank of fuel, and that rocket would be no more expensive than a jet plane.

This certainly isn’t true of all science fiction from the thirties to the fifties. The nuclear rocket was one scenario, but it’s an absurdly sweeping generalization to attribute that to all SF.

Agreed, I’m reasonably sure Verne’s own rocket to the moon didn’t use nuclear energy.

[BMalion]

@Nava

@CalMeacham

This certainly isn’t true of all science fiction from the thirties to the fifties. The nuclear rocket was one scenario, but it’s an absurdly sweeping generalization to attribute that to all SF.

Agreed, I’m reasonably sure Verne’s own rocket to the moon didn’t use nuclear energy.

And don’t forget Cavorite.

[Squink]

@BMalion

And don’t forget Cavorite.

Now called exclusively Upsidaisium (Up), after a controversial IUPAC ruling released in tandem with the International Astronomical Union’s ‘Dwarf planet resolution’.

[BMalion]

@Squink

@BMalion

And don’t forget Cavorite.

Now called exclusively Upsidaisium (Up), after a controversial IUPAC ruling released in tandem with the International Astronomical Union’s ‘Dwarf planet resolution’.

Fuckin’ dwarfs.

[Lynn_Bodoni]

@ralph124c

What I find interesting: none of the Sci-Fi futurists ever speculated much on the very conservative nature of society-its easy to extrapolate about Iphones and rocket ships, but why are we still laboring on with a 13th century legal system (laws written in archaic , obscure language); and our 19th century government runs amuck, wasting resources at a furious pace.

Read The Gate to Women’s Country by Sheri S. Tepper, or The Parable of the Sower by Octavia Butler, and get back to me on that.

Usually, though, SF writers don’t write SF in order to PREDICT the future, and it’s a mistake to read SF to try to figure out what the future will be like. SF writers usually have a story they want to tell about how people will react to different societies, cultures, and technologies. For instance, David Brin wrote about a society in which people have access to cloning technology in Kiln People. The clones only live about 24 hours, and if the original (rig) wants to, s/he can accept the clone’s (rox’s) memories of its life. People clone themselves in order to study, in order to have sensual experiences, and to do household chores, among other things. Brin probably doesn’t think that this sort of technology would ever exist, he’s just saying what if it DID? How would humans react? And it’s an interesting story.

[Malacandra]

@Nava

@CalMeacham

This certainly isn’t true of all science fiction from the thirties to the fifties. The nuclear rocket was one scenario, but it’s an absurdly sweeping generalization to attribute that to all SF.

Agreed, I’m reasonably sure Verne’s own rocket to the moon didn’t use nuclear energy.

And I’m beyond reasonably sure that Verne’s spaceship wasn’t a rocket.

[GargoyleWB]

I’m waiting for chairdogs and beddogs from Frank Herbert. I would love to sit down in a fur-lined recliner that conformed to your shape, purred, and walked itself around as needed. I don’t think he ever explained how much they poop, though.

“Oh, sorry about that, the ottoman has a bit of diarrhea and the recliner barfed up its breakfast again…”

[Evil_Captor]

@Lemur866

Funny, the religious puritans are arguable much more powerful today than they were back in the 50s, and they’re just as opposed to the porn, except there’s porn everywhere.

No they’re not. In the 50s, led by the Catholic Church and Protestant social conservatives, they had a lock on all movies, TV and comic books, censoring all sorts of content, including sexual content. Check out the Hayes Code and the Comics Code Authority. They are pathetically weak compared to their power in the 1950s. I would love to hear your argument that they are more powerful nowadays.

[JohnT]

@Evil_Captor

… I would love to hear your argument that they are more powerful nowadays.

… maybe in another thread?

[Evil_Captor]

@JohnT

@Evil_Captor

… I would love to hear your argument that they are more powerful nowadays.

… maybe in another thread?

Works for me.

[BMalion]

@Evil_Captor

@JohnT

… maybe in another thread?

Works for me.

don’t forget to link to it.

[Damfino]

@Anne_Neville

@Sleel

Social changes are a lot harder to hit, and almost no SF writers, hard or soft, would venture to place much weight on their predictions about society 20 or 30 years from now. They might reasonably extrapolate some patterns of behavior based on new technology, but that’s nothing more than guessing how people would use the new tools. Someone predicting a future form of music or fashion is probably going to have a worse success rate than Nostradamus. Writers smart enough to come up with good stories know that.

One big one a lot of them missed is the demographic transition. A number of SF stories I’ve read have some government-imposed limit on the number of children a person or couple is allowed to have. China has that now, but the demographic transition and the availability of effective birth control solved that problem in most of the developed world with no government intervention required. In fact, it arguably solved it too well in some advanced societies, such as Japan, which are now dealing with issues of having too many old people relative to the number of young people.

That of course ties into their missing Women’s Liberation- women’s employment opportunities are one of the factors that go into the demographic transition.

Irony piled on irony. The Chinese government now feels that it has to censor the internet to keep out (among other things) the porn that we’re sending them.

You could easily find some people who think there are ill effects. You may agree or disagree with them, but there are people who have that opinion.

@MEBuckner

Of course Venus, the first manned expedition to which was in 1971 (although none of the crew thereof survived), has swamps and intelligent natives, etc.

That was a respectable scientific opinion at the time, assuming these stories were written before 1962. That’s when we sent Mariner 2 to Venus and learned that the surface is too hot for swamps or intelligent life as we know it.

Isaac Asimov’s story The Dying Night makes a similar mistake that is understandable for its time (the story was written in 1956)- the story hinges on the idea that Mercury is tidally locked to the Sun. We learned in 1965 that that isn’t true. Asimov actually insisted that a postscript saying that Mercury’s rotation isn’t tidally locked to the Sun be printed with every reprinting of The Dying Night done after the discovery.

Another Asimov story, The Dust of Death, hinges on the then-current idea that the atmosphere of Titan was made up of hydrogen and methane. We discovered in 2005 that Titan’s atmosphere is 98.4% nitrogen and 1.6% methane.

I thought I’d read everything by Asimov, but * The Dust of Death* is new to me. Can you tell me in which collection it might be available? Thanks.

[Evil_Captor]

@BMalion

@Evil_Captor

Works for me.

don’t forget to link to it.

I’m not the one making the extraordinary claim, I think Lemur should start the thread.