# What do Obama and McCain need to do to attract the middle? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 27, 2008, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706 "2008-05-27T00:34:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/21 "2008-05-27T02:30:21Z")
[QUOTE=cckerberos] How quickly do you think Obama, if elected, will remove US forces from Iraq? [/QUOTE] He said he will stop replacing troops in Iraq until they run out. Then he will try to get the rest of the middle east to handle the mess. I worry about this because when we left Afghanistan alone after the war with Russia that didn’t turn out to good. Anyone know what Obama has planned to prevent a radical religious regime (like the Taliban) from taking over in Iraq? In any case I’m sure that both of them will end up making some serious mistakes with Iraq. I trust Obama to handle his mistakes a lot better than McCain will. So far I feel that McCain will just handle it the political way and pretend that he doesn’t make mistakes, like he now pretends that he is both a moderate and a conservative. ---
**Author:** ![Hakuna\_Matata](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@Hakuna\_Matata](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hakuna_Matata)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/22 "2008-05-27T02:33:50Z")
[QUOTE=Fear Itself] Many, but not enough. If only 10% of Republicans vote Democratic, McCain hasn’t got a chance. He needs all the Republicans, and 20-30% of the Democrats. Bush got 30% in 2004. I seriously doubt McCain can manage that, especially with the up 3 to 1 registration of new voters by the Democrats. These new voters are highly motivated, and not for Bush’s 3rd term. [/QUOTE] Bush got 30% of the Democratic voters in 2004! Was there an analysis on why they voted for Bush? Again those are likely the voting block I am talking about, what do Obama and/or McCain need to do to get those folks in their camp? I would imagine it would be the economy. I have to say I have been a little surprised there hasn’t been more of a discussion on that issue yet. There has been some discussion but it seems to me a good area for Obama to really distance himself from McCain. That middle block will vote their pocketbook won’t they? I am not worried about my pocketbook, but my job still depends upon a good economy and under McCain I see the same old as under the last administration. I can’t be unique in that viewpoint can I? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/23 "2008-05-27T02:39:57Z")
[QUOTE=Lakai] He said he will stop replacing troops in Iraq until they run out. Then he will try to get the rest of the middle east to handle the mess. I worry about this because when we left Afghanistan alone after the war with Russia that didn’t turn out to good. Anyone know what Obama has planned to prevent a radical religious regime (like the Taliban) from taking over in Iraq? [/QUOTE] The Shiite militias will make short work of the Sunni insurgents as soon as we get out from between them. The Shiites hold political power in Iraq, and if we would let them actually have the democratically elected government they want, it will be a Islamic republic with Sharia law, like in Iran. Who are we to stand in the way of democracy? Iran will fill the vacuum we created. We knocked off both of their sworn enemies; the Taliban in Afghanistan, and Saddam in Iraq. Should it come a a surprise that they are now the major power in the region? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/24 "2008-05-27T02:41:51Z")
You may be exceptional in your sense of financial security. Don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/25 "2008-05-27T02:50:05Z")
Our economy can not stand another 2 years of huge Iraqi spending. How deep a financial hole do we make ?I would try to turn it over to the UN. If they wont take it then negotiate with everyone around. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/26 "2008-05-27T02:50:43Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] As quickly as he can. And I would not expect any more explicit a promise than that. If he says three months and then find out its going to take six, I would expect him to say “Well, fuck me, I was wrong…”. But it would be a lot smarter just to commit to an exit as soon as practicable, and thats the best case scenario anyway. [/QUOTE] John McCain could make exactly the same commitment and not be one inch away from his previous statements on the matter. “As soon as practicable” could mean absolutely anything, since “practicable” can mean anything, and you’re free to move the goalposts later on. There’s really no point in insisting on ANY specific promise with regards to this issue; I think you simply have to make an honest call on who you think will handle the entire mess from a philosophy that most closely matches your own. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/27 "2008-05-27T02:55:51Z")
[QUOTE=cckerberos] I’m not sure of that, though what’s significant is up for debate. [68% of Republicans want the next president to continue the war, not end it.](http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm) I wouldn’t be surprised if sheer partisanship or other issues like gun control convince many of the 26% who want the war ended to vote GOP anyway. [/QUOTE] Am I missing something at that link? I don’t see that there, I just see how most people want out and a timetable seems the right way to do it to the biggest bulk. Admittedly there are a lot of polls there, I could’ve missed something. As to the op- both should just present their visions of America’s future and their veiw of how to get us there. We’ll see which one resonates. What they shouldn’t do is pander to where they think the Middle is. Articulate why America should go that direction and in that manner. Do it well enough and the Middle will think they’ve always thought that too but you just said it better. The Middle responds well to a real leader. ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/28 "2008-05-27T03:08:15Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Am I missing something at that link? I don’t see that there, I just see how most people want out and a timetable seems the right way to do it to the biggest bulk. Admittedly there are a lot of polls there, I could’ve missed something. [/QUOTE] It’s in the 3rd poll down, the CBS/NYT poll from April 25-29. The question was “Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? Would you prefer the next president try to end the Iraq war within the next year or two, no matter what, or continue to fight the Iraq war as long as they felt it was necessary?” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/29 "2008-05-27T03:33:10Z")
Thank you. Sorry I doubted you. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/30 "2008-05-27T14:47:19Z")
Let’s define our terms reliably before proceeding. (Hint: “Middle America” is not the same thing as the **political** middle.) The [Pew Political Typology,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pew_Research_Center_political_typology) a scientific study first conducted in 1987 and updated three times since then, currently divides the American people, based on their political views, into nine groups – three “Left,” three “Right,” and three “Middle.” The “Middle” groups are the Upbeats, Disaffecteds, and Bystanders. Their characteristics are described [here:](http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=949) > [@](#): > > **UPBEATS** > PAST TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: New Prosperity Independents, Upbeats > > 11% OF ADULT POPULATION > > 13% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > > PARTY ID: 56% Independent/No Preference, 39% Republican, 5% Democrat (73% Rep/Lean Rep) > > BASIC DESCRIPTION: Upbeats express positive views about the economy, government and society. Satisfied with their own financial situation and the direction the nation is heading, these voters support George W. Bush’s leadership in economic matters more than on moral or foreign policy issues. Combining highly favorable views of government with equally positive views of business and the marketplace, Upbeats believe that success is in people’s own hands, and that businesses make a positive contribution to society. This group also has a very favorable view of immigrants. > > DEFINING VALUES: Very favorable views of government performance and responsiveness defines the group, along with similarly positive outlook on the role of business in society. While most support the war in Iraq, Upbeats have mixed views on foreign policy but most favor preemptive military action against countries that threaten the U.S. Religious, but decidedly moderate in views about morality. > Key Beliefs: General Population Upbeats > Government often does a better job than people give it credit for 45% 68% > Most elected officials care what people like me think 32% 64% > Most corporations make a fair and reasonable profit 39% 78% > Immigrants strengthen our country 45% 72% > As Americans, we can always find ways to solve our problems and get what we want 59% 74% > > WHO THEY ARE: Relatively young (26% are under 30) and well-educated, Upbeats are among the wealthiest typology groups (39% have household incomes of $75,000 or more). The highest proportion of Catholics (30%) and white mainline Protestants (28%) of all groups, although fewer than half (46%) attend church weekly. Mostly white (87%), suburban, and married, they are evenly split between men and women. > > LIFESTYLE NOTES: High rate of stock ownership (42%, 2nd after Enterprisers). > > 2004 ELECTION: Bush 63%, Kerry 14%. > > MEDIA USE: Upbeats are second only to Liberals in citing the internet as their main news source (34% compared with 23% nationwide); 46% also cite newspapers. No more or less engaged in politics than the national average. > **DISAFFECTEDS** > PAST TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Embittered, Disaffecteds > > 9% OF ADULT POPULATION > > 10% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > > PARTY ID: 68% Independent/No Preference, 30% Republican, 2% Democrat (60% Rep/Lean Rep) > > BASIC DESCRIPTION: Disaffecteds are deeply cynical about government and unsatisfied with both their own economic situation and the overall state of the nation. Under heavy financial pressure personally, this group is deeply concerned about immigration and environmental policies, particularly to the extent that they affect jobs. Alienated from politics, Disaffecteds have little interest in keeping up with news about politics and government, and few participated in the last election. > > DEFINING VALUES: Despite personal financial strain and belief that success is mostly beyond a person’s control Disaffecteds are only moderate supporters of government welfare and assistance to the poor. Strongly oppose immigration as well as regulatory and environmental policies on the grounds that government is ineffective and such measures cost jobs. > Key Beliefs: General Population Disaffecteds > Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care 44% 80% > Government is always wasteful and inefficient 47% 70% > Most elected officials don’t care what people like me think 63% 84% > Hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people 28% 48% > > WHO THEY ARE: Less educated (70% have attended no college, compared with 49% nationwide) and predominantly male (57%). While a majority (60%) leans Republican, three-in-ten are strict independents, triple the national rate. Disaffecteds live in all parts of the country, though somewhat more are from rural and suburban areas than urban. > > LIFESTYLE NOTES: Somewhat higher percentages than the national average have a gun in the home, and report that someone in their house has been unemployed in the past year. > > 2004 ELECTION: Bush 42%, Kerry 21%. Nearly a quarter (23%) said they didn’t vote in the last election. > > MEDIA USE: Disaffecteds have little interest in current events and pay little attention to the news. No single medium or network stands out as a main source. > \ > > BYSTANDERS > PAST TYPOLOGY COUNTERPART: Bystanders > > 10% OF ADULT POPULATION > > 0% OF REGISTERED VOTERS > > PARTY ID: 56% Independent/No Preference, 22% Republican, 22% Democrat > > BASIC DESCRIPTION: These Americans choose not to participate in or pay attention to politics, or are not eligible to do so (non-citizens). > > DEFINING VALUES: Cynical about government and the political system. Uninterested in political news. > Key Beliefs: General Population Bystanders > Follow what’s going on in government and public affairs 80% 45% > Voted in 2004 Presidential election 74% 3% > > WHO THEY ARE: Young (39% are under age 30, average age is 37). Lowest education (24% have not finished high school). Less religious than any group other than Liberals (26% attend church weekly). Largely concentrated in the South and West, relatively few in the East and Midwest. One-in-five are Hispanic. > > LIFESTYLE NOTES: About half (49%) say they often can’t make ends meet, fewer than among Pro-Government Conservatives, Disadvantaged Democrats or Disaffecteds; 30% attend bible groups or prayer meetings; 30% own a gun. > > 2004 ELECTION: 96% did not vote in presidential election. > > MEDIA USE: Television is the main news source for Bystanders (79%) as for all other typology groups, with network news (24%) the most frequently cited TV source; 34% read newspapers and 23% get their news from the radio. The Bystanders are electorally irrelevant unless you think one candidate or the other has what it takes to get them off their asses, this year, at long last. The Disaffecteds might well vote for Obama just because he represents change and they don’t care what kind. I’d say the Upbeats, who “support George W. Bush’s leadership in economic matters more than on moral or foreign policy issues,” will likely support McCain **unless** the economy is even more in the crapper by November, which it will be. Then it’s a tossup. ---
**Author:** ![Hakuna\_Matata](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@Hakuna\_Matata](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hakuna_Matata)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/31 "2008-05-27T15:14:12Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] PARTY ID: 56% Independent/No Preference, 39% Republican, 5% Democrat (73% Rep/Lean Rep) BASIC DESCRIPTION: Upbeats express positive views about the economy, government and society. Satisfied with their own financial situation and the direction the nation is heading, these voters support George W. Bush’s leadership in economic matters more than on moral or foreign policy issues. Combining highly favorable views of government with equally positive views of business and the marketplace, Upbeats believe that success is in people’s own hands, and that businesses make a positive contribution to society. This group also has a very favorable view of immigrants. DEFINING VALUES: Very favorable views of government performance and responsiveness defines the group, along with similarly positive outlook on the role of business in society. While most support the war in Iraq, Upbeats have mixed views on foreign policy but most favor preemptive military action against countries that threaten the U.S. Religious, but decidedly moderate in views about morality. [/QUOTE] Very interesting! I would place myself in this description loosely. I am very satisfied with my financial situation, however I am NOT happy with the direction of the economy under Bush. However I do believe success is in your own hands. I do have favorable impressions of both government and business-they both need to be good to be successful in my opinion. I also am very pro immigrant. I am a minority and I believe it is one of the great things about this country, that anyone can succeed. I was not supportive of the war effort before the war started and I have not been happy with the continuation. I feel that money would have been better spent in this country. Well here is to hoping more people like me support Obama! If Obama can pick up this 13% of the voters that would be a huge swing for him wouldn’t it? It appears Bush got 63% of this group in 2004. I think he needs to really start focusing on the economy and portray himself as the leader to take us out of the current market funk we are in. That is a big negative for me for McCain, I feel he will continue the Bush approach. When McCain and Clinton came out in support of that lame ass gas tax rebate–they both lost huge credibility points with people like me. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/32 "2008-05-27T15:34:39Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Two years. [/QUOTE] The answer, if you’re talking about a newly elected first term president, is always “five years”. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2008, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706/33 "2008-05-27T15:53:24Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Two years. [/QUOTE] There is 0% probability of that happening. Zero. That’s not even what he is promising. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-obama-and-mccain-need-to-do-to-attract-the-middle/450706.md?page=1)