# What do we do when Iran drops the big one on... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 7, 2012, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485 "2012-07-07T00:42:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/61 "2012-07-07T10:30:49Z")
> [@Namkcalb](#): > > If they nuked an uninhabited Canadian island… Well, I’d expect an American immediate and unrestrained invasion of Iran. Not if they have nukes; they’d use them on the invading army. Anyone would against an army they didn’t think they could defeat with conventional weapons. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/62 "2012-07-07T13:06:11Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > That’s much of how the Japanese got their reputation for not surrendering; the ones that were taken alive were generally murdered by the American troops anyway. This is something you made up, obviously. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/63 "2012-07-07T13:28:31Z")
> [@greenslime1951](#): > > the Iranians, for example, have never known it, educated and sophisticated as they are. The most they can grasp in terms of governmental reform, then, is replacing the old boss and hoping the new boss isn’t the same as the old boss. As noted, that is quite inaccurate. In fact, barring a brief, abortive two year flirtation with a constitutional government in the Ottoman state in the 1870’s, Iran was the first country in the region to establish [a functioning parliament](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Constitutional_Revolution). The [Young Turk Revolution](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Turk_Revolution) would follow it in 1908. Though the Iranian legislature would go through many vicissitudes as it struggled with the monarchy in the decades that followed, it always existed in one form or another. The Iranians have had more and more continuous experience with at least the trappings of democracy than any other state in the region and are well aware and proud of the fact. It’s a sad truth that it has been reduced to a manipulated veneer at various times - after the Pahlavi accession in 1925, again after 1953 coup, and then steadily squeezed by the theocrats after the 1979 Revolution. But the Iranians are well aware what pluralistic democracy is - they simply have been involved in a see-sawing struggle with various authoritarian forces since its inception. > [@](#): > > I also don’t think a heavily Muslim country could possibly become a democracy. Islam micromanages daily life and does not tolerate dissent. Its values are antithetical to democracy. Speaking as an atheist with some mild academic interest in the area, I disagree. But I’m no longer much interested in debating the point. > [@](#): > > Nevertheless, the Iranian people seem to want an Islamic theocracy–which would seem to indicate that they don’t want democracy. This really isn’t accurate. It is more correct to say that _some_ Iranians want a theocracy, concentrated particularly in some elements of the lumpen proletariat and the pious [bazaari](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazaari). But that is hardly all of Iran. The 1979 Revolution was conducted by a complex stew of social forces. It was just to the great misfortune of the left ( both secularists and their left-liberal religious allies ) that they were comprehensively outmaneuvered by the radical theocrats in the immediate post-revolutionary period of 1979-1982. ---
**Author:** ![handsomeharry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e9c0ed/32.png) [@handsomeharry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/handsomeharry)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/64 "2012-07-07T16:02:08Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Yeah, right. :rolleyes: They only need to look at Iraq to see the kind of murderous thugs we are. Who are you including in your confession? ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/65 "2012-07-07T16:07:53Z")
> [@al27052](#): > > Start throwing China, N. Korea, Pakistan, and Iran into the mix, and the game changes. (I only mention China because of the Taiwan issue) None of those countries are crazy, either. And frankly, even if they were, it wouldn’t make a difference. The USSR had nukes under the truly nutso Stalin, and China had nukes under the even nastier Mao, and you’ll notice nothing untoward ever happened. The only problems with MAD right now are that North Korea could launch in response to an invasion (but there wouldn’t be an invasion anyway), or Pakistan could somehow lose a nuke to a terrorist group (but their government is in much better command of the situation than we like to think, so it’s not likely.) > [@GreasyJack](#): > > I mean, seriously, can anyone point to an example where “retaliation” would be a legitimate reason for committing a crime against humanity? Do we let populations that have been victims of genocide commit retaliatory genocides in the name of genocide deterrence? A retaliatory nuclear attack against a civilian population without at least a fig-leaf of military necessity would be just as much of a war crime as the initial unprovoked attack. The question isn’t whether it would be right. The question is that the US would have to respond instantaneously if it wants to maintain a credible MAD-based deterrent. So it would. An invasion would give the regime a month, and that’s about thirty days and twenty-two hours too long. So regardless of ethics, there would be an immediate nuclear retaliation. And, as people have already pointed out, _nobody_ would try to come to Iran’s defence. > [@greenslime1951](#): > > Pluralistic democracy is simply not in the psyche of the vast majority of Middle Eastern countries–the Iranians, for example, have never known it, educated and sophisticated as they are. The most they can grasp in terms of governmental reform, then, is replacing the old boss and hoping the new boss isn’t the same as the old boss. > > I also don’t think a heavily Muslim country could possibly become a democracy. Islam micromanages daily life and does not tolerate dissent. Its values are antithetical to democracy. Nevertheless, the Iranian people seem to want an Islamic theocracy–which would seem to indicate that they don’t want democracy. This is utterly bigoted claptrap. There already _are_ heavily Muslim, democratic countries. Turkey is a stable democracy. Tunisia’s government was freely elected. As I recall, Indonesia is democratic these days. Then there are a bunch of other countries with imperfect democracy: Egypt, where there’s a democratic government that’s having to fight with the military over control; Lebanon, where there’s a democratic government but various sectarian militias have too much power for it to govern effectively; and a bunch of countries where there’s a king who overrides the parliament on a regular basis. Even Iran itself had a freely elected president until Ahmadinejad stole the last election, although the president was subordinate to the theocrats and only controlled domestic policy. And it was a big deal when the election got stolen, even though Ahmadinejad probably would have won anyway! The government had to put down massive protests in the streets. Remember that? Unlike Americans post-Civil Rights Movement, Muslims in the Middle East have been willing to march and die in the streets for democracy. Democracy is very much “in their psyche”. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/66 "2012-07-07T17:14:38Z")
POTUS: How many cruise missiles do we have in theatre? JCOS: We have N cruise missiles, sir. POTUS: Ok, I want all of those launched within the next 12 hours, then start shipping all of our remaining stocks from everywhere else in that direction. Also, I want every aircraft in that hemisphere on it’s way to Kuwait within 12 hours and every carrier capable of mission on it’s way within 48 hours. I want a plan of deployment for everything we’ve got on my desk by 9am tomorrow. Gentlemen, you have work to do. ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/67 "2012-07-07T18:32:16Z")
…and I forgot Iraq. And that Libya had its first free election today. You’ll take my point. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/68 "2012-07-07T21:30:27Z")
A nuclear attack by Iran, anywhere in the world, would be met with a nuclear response. I am sure of it. The whole country? I don’t know, but it would be a nightmare. I don’t think Iran would do a nuclear strike, though. They aren’t ‘insane’, contrary to the OP’s assertion. They want a bomb 1) because Israel has it. 1.1) because the US has it. 2) because India has it, 3) Pakistan 4) China 5) Russia. Something like that. “First strike” doesn’t make the list IMHO. The most effective thing we could do to persuade them to give up their nuclear program is to disarm Israel, a highly unlikely outcome. In [Why Iran Should Get the Bomb](http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137731/kenneth-n-waltz/why-iran-should-get-the-bomb), Kenneth N. Waltz makes the case that a nuclear Iran would be the best thing for stability in the ME, as it would correct the current destabilizing balance of power. Any merit to a pro-proliferation stance? Or do people seriously believe Iran would launch a first strike? ---
**Author:** ![Uber\_the\_Goober](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/58956e/32.png) [@Uber\_the\_Goober](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uber_the_Goober)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/69 "2012-07-07T22:48:09Z")
> [@Mekhazzio](#): > > Responding to a nuclear attack with anything short of another nuclear attack undermines the entire concept of deterrence. But how sweet would it be, and how much “street cred” (as was mentioned up thread) would come about from utterly obliterating the enemy who nuked you with non nuclear means? Seriously, our Air Force has the capability of city-to-rubble conversion, as does the Navy (come on up through the Arabian Sea with some big boats), such that we’d never have to even set foot in the place. I think that’s a way to be seen as the responsible adult in the room while still accomplishing the same goal of smacking the little kids who misused their nukes. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/70 "2012-07-07T22:55:02Z")
The threat would be more effective. “We will withhold nuclear retaliation _at the moment_, but we do intend to destroy the Iranian regime in response to this crime against Humanity. We would therefore like to put the Iranian people on notice that should there be another incident, we will wipe their nation from the face of the Earth.” Then see how quickly the mullahs start swinging from the minarets. ---
**Author:** ![Uber\_the\_Goober](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/58956e/32.png) [@Uber\_the\_Goober](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uber_the_Goober)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/71 "2012-07-07T23:02:20Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > The threat would be more effective. > > “We will withhold nuclear retaliation _at the moment_, but we do intend to destroy the Iranian regime in response to this crime against Humanity. We would therefore like to put the Iranian people on notice that should there be another incident, we will wipe their nation from the face of the Earth.” > > Then see how quickly the mullahs start swinging from the minarets. That is an Epic Statement, and I would so love to hear it said by a US President, but I don’t know if Obama has enough podium oomph to give it the right effect. ---
**Author:** ![GreasyJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/df705f/32.png) [@GreasyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreasyJack)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/72 "2012-07-07T23:26:43Z")
> [@straight\_man](#): > > The question isn’t whether it would be right. The question is that the US would have to respond instantaneously if it wants to maintain a credible MAD-based deterrent. So it would. An invasion would give the regime a month, and that’s about thirty days and twenty-two hours too long. So regardless of ethics, there would be an immediate nuclear retaliation. And, as people have already pointed out, _nobody_ would try to come to Iran’s defence. The reason why you need to instantly reply in a MAD situation is because if you hesitate, the enemy’s first strike might be able to neutralize or reduce your ability to respond. This would only apply to a power with a large nuclear arsenal, not a rogue state that managed to slip a single nuke into New Jersey in a shipping crate. Using a nuclear weapon for no other reason than essentially revenge would be so spectacularly wrong, I can’t imagine any leader of a western democracy seriously considering it. If nothing else, it would completely piss away the massive international support we would have. Maybe if Washington DC got nuked and there were serious chain-of-command issues, maybe mistakes would be made, but I seriously doubt there is any sort of rational thought process that would lead to “they nuked us, so we’ve gotta nuke them back on principle.” ---
**Author:** ![GreasyJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/df705f/32.png) [@GreasyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreasyJack)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/73 "2012-07-07T23:35:36Z")
> [@greenslime1951](#): > > I also don’t think a heavily Muslim country could possibly become a democracy. Islam micromanages daily life and does not tolerate dissent. Its values are antithetical to democracy. Nevertheless, the Iranian people seem to want an Islamic theocracy–which would seem to indicate that they don’t want democracy. Also, while we’re piling onto this whopper, I’d point out that Indonesia, which has something like 40% of the world’s Muslim population, has a fairly long (albeit somewhat troubled) history of democratic institutions. ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/74 "2012-07-07T23:37:57Z")
The term you’re looking for is “retaliation”, not “revenge”, spectacularly wrong as it is. But no, the logic of MAD doesn’t work unless it ends with annihilation — the second-strike capacity stuff is just a fun extension of MAD created by improvements in technology. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/75 "2012-07-07T23:39:15Z")
> [@handsomeharry](#): > > Who are you including in your confession? It’s not a “confession”; I consistently opposed the war and occupation. Blood is on the hands of anyone who _supported_ it. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/76 "2012-07-07T23:47:17Z")
Annihilation of _régime_, SM, not necessarily of the nation-state. Granted, in Iran’s case, that might entail mass civilian casualties. ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/77 "2012-07-07T23:48:06Z")
> [@greenslime1951](#): > > Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Iran is indeed developing nuclear weapons (not a stretch) and that they possess the technology and resources to at least make a few Hiroshima-sized bombs (not a stretch). > > Let’s also assume that, practical-minded souls that they are, they use the first bomb they make, on a) Tel Aviv or Jerusalem; b) New York or Washington; c) an uninhabited Canadian island, because their delivery system screws up somehow. In any case, we’re in a Tom Clancy novel so we can determine the origin of the bomb beyond a shadow of a doubt by delicately tasting the fallout. Do you think we would, in each case: > > 1. Retaliate with a nonnuclear strike against strategic targets in Iran, including nuclear fabrication sites, missile sites, aircraft and airfields, etc and impose a strict quarantine on the country? > 2. Obliterate a civilian target to the extent that they would suffer at least as many casualties as their attack(s) had caused? > 3. Turn the country into a radioactive slagheap? > 4. Immediately forcefully demand that the U.N. frown at them? > > I’m afraid that they might think that we would never do 2) or 3), even if they did devastate New York. And certainly, it’s unlikely we would do 2) or 3) if they blew up Tel Aviv (although Israel would probably do 3) all on its own in that event). So if they (rightly or wrongly) underestimated our resolve, they might make the Pearl Harbor-ish blunder of blowing up the Great Satan and damn the consequences. > > How far do _you_ think we would go to retaliate (in each scenario, above)? How far do you think _they_ think we would go? Do we, in fact, have a credible deterrent? (Deterrents don’t work very well if your adversary is insane, for example.) And this is in GD’s? My goodness… :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![GreasyJack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/df705f/32.png) [@GreasyJack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreasyJack)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2012, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/78 "2012-07-07T23:52:15Z")
> [@straight\_man](#): > > The term you’re looking for is “retaliation”, not “revenge”, spectacularly wrong as it is. But no, the logic of MAD doesn’t work unless it ends with annihilation — the second-strike capacity stuff is just a fun extension of MAD created by improvements in technology. Retaliation is a less loaded term perhaps, but it’s the same thing. I don’t know how you have it in your head that MAD is some sort of inviolable pillar of our foreign policy-- I don’t think it’s EVER been applied to a country that wasn’t Russia and it probably isn’t even current official doctrine right now. It’s certainly never been official policy with regard to rogue nations without any nuclear stockpiles to speak of. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2012, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/79 "2012-07-08T00:09:15Z")
**GreasyJack** is the only one in this thread talking any sense. There’s no reason to think that the concept of MAD requires nuclear weapons. Like he says, against another superpower, excessive use of nuclear weapons and massive civilian casualties are the only way of knocking out their offensive capabilities in a timely manner. Against Iran? We can deliver conventional weapons with cruise missiles, we can have bombers on target in a matter of minutes (like, an hour). Three hours after the nuclear strike, anything related to nuclear weapons that we know about would be smoldering. 48 hours after the strike, anything resembling a weapon would be smoldering. 30 days after the strike, the entire Iranian government would be smoldering, and we’d be occupying ourselves another country. Is that not assured destruction? It is, in fact, assured destruction, and no nuclear weapons are required. Since we _can_ do it without massive civilian casualties, we most certainly _would_. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2012, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485/80 "2012-07-08T00:22:34Z")
I hope you’re right. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-we-do-when-iran-drops-the-big-one-on/627485.md?page=5)