What do we do when we run out of labour?

You do not understand my scenario.

In a capitalist society, wealth tends to concentrate at the top. The people who own the production facilities have an interest in selling their stuff to as many people as possible, true, but they have no interest in HIRING anyone and PAYING them money above and beyond what it takes to produce their widgets at the lowest possible rate.

Now, if as seems increasingly likely, a few hundred thousand people own every last factory, every last distribution channel and bit of farmland in America, what are they gonna need the REST of us for? Sure, there’ll still be jobs in retail sales, but virtually NONE in production.

These wealthy few might have appetites for paintings or lawn services or prostitutes, but they could satisfy them extragantly and STILL there would not be a pressing need for, say, 200 million out of the 300 million or so Americans we’ll have by then.

What will they do to earn money? The free market types like to talk in dulcet tones about “the pain of economic realignment” but historically, capitalism has let huge portions of the population of Europe and America starve, right up to the 1930s. Are you going to uncritically accept their assurances that it will never happen again?

I see a train coming down the tracks, I think it would be well not to be on them.

And where else is there to stand?

Wait, what percentage of the US population starved to death during the 1930s? Was it a huge portion?

And I still don’t understand your scenario, but here’s what I think you’re saying.

Due to the inexorable laws of capitalism, eventually a very small number of people, n, will own every factory, every farm, every store, and every business. For simplicity’s sake, let’s say n=1. There’s one guy, and he has finally crushed his last competitor and he now owns everything. And due to the inexorable laws of technology, automation has grown more and more effective, so those factories have needed fewer and fewer employees. In fact, on the same day this guy (lets call him Bill) crushed his last competitor he also fired his last factory worker.

So now everyone in the world is obliged to buy goods from Bill. Except no one has a production job, since he fired everyone. But Bill doesn’t care, since every good he could possibly need comes from his private factories, so he has no need to sell goods anyway. People might have service jobs, but they can only exchange services with each other, not goods. Since the vast majority of service providers have nothing to offer Bill, most people have no way to purchase goods anymore. Bill could use some services–whores, pieces for his living chess set, a piss boy or two, etc, but these are now the only jobs on the planet. Everyone on earth except his private servants quickly starves to death. When Bill eventually dies of old age without an heir, his private slaves also quickly starve to death. The automated factories sit there ready to produce any good imaginable, but because humanity was so foolish as to believe in laissez faire capitalism they are useless, and the human race becomes extinct.

Of course, this is a cartoon version of your argument. I know you think n might be hundreds of thousands or even millions of people. But why wouldn’t the forces that would prevent the n=1 scenario from occuring also occur if n=100,000?

(HINT: I don’t agree that capitalism results in inexorable concentration of wealth)

Then by all means, please give us a counterexample. One not attributable to government action or resistance by organized labor.

It is a bit cartoonish. But I’m confused about what you think is wrong with it in principle, about those forces that prevent this from happening. At some point, those who own the means of production will not require human labor for production (or will require vanishingly small amounts). As that trend continues, it becomes harder and harder for anyone not born into money to lift himself up through labor to eventually invest in capital and become an owner. At some point, people who are no longer needed for labor either start starving or… what, exactly? You seem to think that they won’t starve. What will they eat?

While one of my degrees is in Economics…Damnit Jim, I’m a lawyer, not an economist!

I’ve been reading your posts on the various economic threads and I, too, do not understand your scenario…nor your world-view of economics. Not to be snarky, and with all due respect, but have you even taken an economics course?

I’m with you up until you talk about no interest in hiring. True, a producer’s wildest dream is to have a product (widget) that can be made with as little cost as possible, hence your view of cutting out the most costly and most variable of all costs, labor. However, labor will always be needed, but let’s say that it’s true, that machines take over labor. You are missing the demand side of the equation. To echo Lemur’s post, if there is no one employed to buy this product, what point is there in making it?

Who is going to buy these products? Who is going to provide the manual labor to these products? Even if there were these glorious machines that automated 100% of all production, that should drive costs down to nothing. I’m not going to get into an elaborate discussion on price of a widget vs. cost of a widget, etc., but hopefully these questions make you re-evaluate your thought process on this matter.

Exactly. What are these 200-300M people going to do if they’re not working? They will not be producing wealth, and therefore there is no wealth for the owners to reap. Where are these super-wealthy .1% (since you limited it to a few hundred thousand) going to draw there wealth from when the masses do not earn anything? The cigar-smoking, top hat and monacle wearing, bourgeoisie fat cat is not stuffing his mattress full of money. His goal is to sell to as many people for the most amount of money as possible, be it cars, servers, wood, meat, etc.

While I feel most sentiments, statements, etc., should be challeneged, do you honestly see a repeal of the 8 hour day, the 2 day weekend, overtime laws? Don’t you think that there is enough variable employers out there that they offer additional benefits to attract the best and brightest of workers (401(k), telecommuting, paid gym membership, ESPP, day care, public transportation subsidy, paid parking, etc.)?

You might be interested to know that Mack Reynolds was writing a series of stories for Analog on this exact premise 40 years ago. I’ll have to look up when they are set. In his world, everyone got shares of “common Basic” a stock which paid dividends that replaced welfare. Not a lot, but enough to live on.

The reason that this is not going to happen is that capital is not free. With the race to the bottom we are seeing already, there are going to be jobs for a lot more than 50 years where it is cheaper to get people instead of machines. I’d guess that there would be a reduction in the work week long before it gets to the point you’re forecasting. As for what is in it for the rich people - as long as we have a pseudo-democracy, there will be a brake on too much greedy capitalism (we haven’t hit it yet) and there is the issue of keeping your McMansion from being burned down by unhappy unemployed peasants.

Buying and selling is trade, for trade to occur, both parties need something that the other party does not have. If we envision a scenario in which mechanization completely replaced human labour, then there is NOTHING the prolatetariet can offer the fat cat in exchange for goods, thus, it’s impossible for the fat cat to actually sell anything. The only way for the fat cat to distribute their goods is via charity and history is replete with examples of small groups of people with enough wealth to more than satisfy their needs giving very little money for charitable acts.

Sure, the fat cat may have more than he needs, but he doesn’t have as much as the OTHER fat cat down the road. It could be argued that even today, middle class america has more than enough income to live a comfortable life, but we still LIKE to get those 42" TV’s rather than those 40" TV’s and dont give a flying fig about all those prolatetariat below us.

I don’t disagree with this at all, and, I think this is at least what is partly at the heart of those who want to meddle more with free trade (btw, I do believe that there should be a small amount of meddling in the economy). The only problem with this sentiment is that it runs awfully close to legislating morality.

Frankly, it is impossible to predict what lengths technology will go to in terms of decades. Computers today are significantly more powerful than computers of 10 years ago, and several advances have been made regarding standardization, but they are still pretty much the same thing.

In order for a machines to totally replace human workers in assembly/industrial applications, they need to be 1) able to reason and judge a situation and 2) be cheap to own and operate over time. Given one robot, you need to supply technicians to keep it working, and it deals with a very limited set of commands; the ones it was programmed for. In order to do anything else, you need to reprogram the system.

There has been AI hypothesis for several decades, but frankly, no one knows. It will probably be a breakthrough that can’t be predicted on a time scale. Everything in this thread is as absurdly hypothetical as in the “why aren’t the aliens talking to us” thread. I agree that AI is an exciting prospect, but it is very much a hypothetical lab topic for now.

I’m not sure I understand. Capitalism is impossible without government action, or perhaps some other method of social control that is so strong it might as well be government regulation. Without the rule of law, enforcement of contracts, protection from theft, and protection from violence you can’t have capitalism. If a so-called capitalist can violently steal from people, have them killed at his whim, and disregard any contracts he signs and if you don’t like it you get whacked, what you have is not capitalism but feudalism, where the aristocracy has the literal power of life and death over the commoners.

I suppose you believe that the inherent contradictions of capitalism will inevitably cause it to destroy itself as the capitalists put themselves beyond the rule of law. But of course, the capitalist himself has an interest in protecting the rule of law, since he needs the rule of law to protect him from the other capitalists. And I mean protect him on a very basic level, so that his competitors can’t come over to his factory and shoot him in the head. And why exactly would that so-called capitalist open a factory to produce goods that he intends to sell, if he is powerful enough to simply take what he wants from others?

That’s why the generic science fiction dytstopia where corporations rule the world makes no sense. If corporations really ruled the world they wouldn’t act like corporations do today, they’d act like third world dictators. Why should the CEO of OmniMegaCorp make money by producing widgets and selling them to you, when he can just come over to your house and take your money without giving you anything in return? And at that point the whole concept of “money” breaks down, and money becomes worthless and we return to a feudal barter/tribute economy. The CEO of OmniMegaCorp can’t steal your money, since you don’t have any money, instead he enserfs you and takes a cut of everything you produce. And your only protection against violence is that you are OmniMegaCorp property and will be protected because you are valuable to them.

And why should organized labor be incompatible with a capitalist economy? If your point is that better working conditions and higher wages and benefits were forced on unwilling capitalists by the labor unions you are certainly correct. Just as the capitalist tries to sell his product for the highest return and with the lowest costs, the workers try to sell their labor at the highest possible price. I have no more problem with labor unions than I do with other professional organizations like, say, the AMA. Employers should have to compete with each other for workers, just like they compete with each other for customers. So explain again why labor unions forcing a price increase on their customers aren’t part of a capitalist economy. Personally I think unions might be better served by thinking of themselves more as worker-owned companies providing a service to various other companies, and that many of the functions that unions used to provide for their members might be more efficiently provide in other ways.

Anyway, here’s my take on why completely automated factories won’t be a civilization wrecker. The thing is, even today the labor costs of the guys down on the production floor are a very small part of the total costs of production. A company probably spends much more on legal, design, HR, administration, marketing, advertising, shipping, cleaning staff, etc. In other words, white collar and pink collar jobs. Are we imagining that automation will replace the legal department, the design department, the marketing department, the IT department? Are we imagining that we will be able to automate maintence of the automated production equipment? Can we automate the factories that produce automated factories? Are we automating resource extraction industries?

Of course to some extent some of these jobs can be “automated”, even if they aren’t done in the same way. We won’t have anthropomorphic robot receptionists sitting at the front desk and answering phones, we’ll have voice mail and key cards. The legal department can use computer searches and the internet rather than file clerks. So fewer people can get more done, and yes the most replaceable jobs are the low-end low-pay unskilled jobs.

But there are lots of jobs that simply cannot be done by machines, unless we imagine some sort of strong AI, which may happen some day but is not predicted to happen any time soon. And if we have strong AI that is about as smart as a human being, by Moore’s law 18 months later you have a machine twice as smart as a human being. If we have artificial intelligences that are much more intelligent than human beings it becomes pointless to speculate about the future any more, because we’ll have hit a Vingean technological singularity where the old rules. If strong AI can automate the marketing department, surely we can also automate the board of directors and the CEOs, the writers and artists, the banks and the venture capitalists, the shareholders and financial advisors, the courts, the legislature, and the presidency. We can impose whatever rules we like in our brave new world of unlimited wealth and prosperity, as long as our new silicon overlords agree. In either case, it certainly means the end of capitalism for the vast vast majority of goods and services that now cost money to provide.

And if you argue that the guys who built the AIs (assuming that the AIs are tame) will now own everything and everyone, I suppose we could use the last tiny remaining bit of goverment taxation authority left to scrape up enough money to build one (just one) publicly owned automated factory. Then tell the factory to build automated factory machinery. Once the new automated factory machinery is finished, tell it to build more automated factory machinery. Once you got a few billion small automated factories produced, tell them to build shipping units, load themselves in, and mail themselves, one for every human being on the planet.

Step 9999999: PROFIT!

When I took AI in 1972, we used a book from the late 1950s. AI was just around the corner then. I think it has gotten further away. If the elimination of the need for workers depends on AI working, we can all breath easily.

No, Moore’s Law is not about smarter. Just because a computer is twice as fast doesn’t make it twice as smart. Not even close.

Why? Does he have robots that police the entire Earth that prevent people from even subsistance farming?

Actually, Moore’s original observation was that technological advances allowed IC densities to increase by about 2x every 12 - 18 months.

You can read the original 1965 paper here (warning: PDF).

Seconded. Computer power is going up and getting smaller, but computers aren’t improving much. They just do what they did, only faster.

Yes, I am familiar with the original, but its predictions nicely correlate to the speed of the computer something most people can get a feel for.

Smarter is a lot harder. Smarter at what? I have seen software both get better and worse in the last ten years. There are some things that I could do in 1997 that are much harder now. There are things which are easier.

I still want to know how this rich person is going to work to prevent any but his servants from living.

Not considered as a stack. Increasing memory allows increasingly bloated software which cuts down on the spped advantage. (Though you get talking paper clips.) My 2 GHz laptop is not even close to 20 times faster than my old 100 MHz Pentium. Though it might be if I had tried to run XP on the old machine.

In the 1800s, many Americans worked seventy hours or more per week and the length of the workweek became an important political issue.

http://www.eh.net/encyclopedia/?article=whaples.work.hours.us

Today we have about a 40 hour workweek (2000 hours of work a year divided by 52 weeks). Plus we do not have as many child laborers or housewives laboring as much as they did back then. So it is safe (to me at least) to say that as a nation we per capita put in about 1/3 as many hours of work as we did 200 years ago. In 200 years maybe we’ll put in 1/3 as many as we do today and a 15 hour workweek will be normal. Maybe we’ll need 15 hour workweeks to keep everyone employed. If you still kept the 9-5 system open but only let everyone work 20 hours a week you’d have 2x as many people employed.

Hey, it’s not my scenario, it’s Evil Captor’s. His scenario is that capital ownership becomes concentrated (simplifed for illustration purposes to n=1) and automation becomes ubiquitous (simplifed for illustration purposes to 100%). Under his scenario everyone everyone who isn’t a personal servant of the owners of the automated factories is unemployed, and since he states that the capitalists don’t care if the rest of us live or die, I therefore project that they will all die. Why doesn’t it make sense? She dies, we die, everybody dies.

Of course, another point is that if labor costs are zero for the automation capitalist, and resource costs are zero since we’d have to automation resource extraction jobs too, then the cost of goods would rapidly approach zero as well. Even if we decide that pure laissez faire capitalism is the only approach possible, a tiny amount of taxation on the income of the capitalists (say a 1% income tax) would be enough to support the 99% of the population that is unemployed in lifestyles that Donald Trump would envy.

Oh, and my Moore’s law observation was simply to point out that if we could build an AI as smart as a person it wouldn’t take very long before we had AIs much smarter than a person, even if all we did was stuff in N times as many processors and memory. I realize that it wouldn’t neccesarily be a linear progression slavishly following Moore’s law, its just that it would be foolish to assume that there would be no improvments in hardware or software that would allow a human-level AI to work faster or better. It seems pretty obvious that a machine that thinks as well as a human being would pretty quickly lead to the development of a machine that thinks a little better than a human being, and a little bit better, then a lot better. And it also seems pretty obvious that one of the main tasks a better-than-human AI would be assigned to would be developing even better AI. Positive feedback loop, rinse and repeat until we have something incomprehenisble.