# What do you expect to be the first "REALLY BAD NEWS" from the Trump administration? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 16, 2025, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054 "2025-01-16T20:06:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/1 "2025-01-16T20:06:59Z")
Many of us anticipate all manner of unpleasant things from the Trump administration. In a perverse way I was wondering whether I actually HOPED he would do something really blatantly evil and/or stupid, to justify my fear and dislike for the man. It is a given that he and his administration will just generally lower standards of professionalism and civility, continuing his fine work from his prior term and his campaigns. And I expect he and his will drive out competent civil servants and replace them with toadies - or simply not replace them. But so much of what he is and does is just the empty bluster or an ignorant blowhard and bully. So what do you think will be the first concrete action that he takes that you will consider a definite concrete terrible thing? Will one of his Agencies take some specific step - lessening environmental or health protections? Will he commit troops or fail to support our allies? Will he order any specific action re: immigration? Will he get Congress to pass some crazy offensive legislation? I’m not sure horrible appointments to the administration or courts are what I’m asking, at least until those appointees take specific action. Moreover, is there ANYTHING he could do that will make ANY of his supporters rethink their support? I think not, but I guess I hold out the faintest of glimmers of hope that not every single person who voted for him is beyond all reason. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/2 "2025-01-16T20:15:18Z")
Tariffs. ---
**Author:** ![Si\_Amigo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/si_amigo/32/2877_2.png) [@Si\_Amigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Si_Amigo)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/3 "2025-01-16T20:16:37Z")
Massive deportation without due process of law. It would create and stoke fear in communities and upset the economy greatly when people realize just how much our everyday necessities of life are provided for by immigrants providing basic services. It would be like taking the bottom card out of a house of cards. This and trade wars caused by random tariffs would tank the economy. ---
**Author:** ![xizor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xizor/32/102_2.png) [@xizor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xizor)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/4 "2025-01-16T20:18:36Z")
I think the first thing he will do is declare a “state of emergency” to allow him to enact all his (and his handlers’) whims without pushback. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/5 "2025-01-16T20:27:33Z")
Tariffs could happen next week. Mass deportations would need some buildup. Covert action in Mexico could be basically immediate, but we wouldn’t necessarily know about it. Announcing we’ll abandon Ukraine could also be immediate. Spinning the wheel… tariffs it is. Trump had an American child assassinated his second week in office last time. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/6 "2025-01-16T20:29:54Z")
Details would be useful - just to consider the magnitude of what you fear, and how it could be accomplished. I believe he has the ability to impose tariffs w/o Congressional approval, but I would be very surprised if he imposed anything as profound as his campaign blather. Rather than his proposals of 10-20% on all imports up to 100% from BRICS, I could see him impose something very limited and say, “See! I did it!” Similar to the deportation. He has suggested 10s of millions of folk will be rounded up and deported, but I imagine he will find it is far more complicated and expensive than he believes. I would expect some more limited measures and, again, claims of success. Declaring a state of emergency to allow all measure of actions would certainly qualify. And would be terrifying. I was wondering about abandoning Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/7 "2025-01-16T20:38:59Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Similar to the deportation. He has suggested 10s of millions of folk will be rounded up and deported, but I imagine he will find it is far more complicated and expensive than he believes. I would expect some more limited measures and, again, claims of success. It’s interesting in that Trump isn’t a true believer. Miller is a white supremacist that wants to ethnically cleanse the US. Homan is a true believer. Vought is a true believer. Will Trump allow others to carry out their lifelong dreams even though it will harm the economy and therefor his chances at adulation / grifting? I kinda agree with you that he’ll do token acts that fox will champion for him, but the chance they go all in is terrifying. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/8 "2025-01-16T20:49:29Z")
Lots of people think that military action is unthinkable, but I put the chances way higher. I’m thinking of how Reagan just threw the 82nd Airborne at a couple of fairly easy targets, there were few consequences, and he came out of it looking like a macho man. That’s got to be appealing to Trump. I don’t expect it to be Panama Canal, at least not right away. That’s very sensitive internationally among some large powers, and the risks are complicated. But he might just send in the Rangers into Guatemala to blow up some infamous prisons, so he can say he solved MS-13. Maybe not exactly that, but something similar. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/9 "2025-01-16T21:00:32Z")
I do not know what the first REALLY BAD NEWS will be, but it will be heralded in his inaugural address. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/10 "2025-01-16T21:04:40Z")
That’s the thing, tho. I have no doubt that he will keep SAYING that he is going to do all manner of terrible things. But what will he actually DO? A couple that haven’t been mentioned yet - I expect pardons for many (if not all) 1/6 criminals. And I bet he encourages DoJ to launch a few investigations of the likes of Jack Smith. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/11 "2025-01-16T21:05:05Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Tariffs could happen next week. Mass deportations would need some buildup. Covert action in Mexico could be basically immediate, but we wouldn’t necessarily know about it. Announcing we’ll abandon Ukraine could also be immediate. Trump could effectively pull all support from Ukraine with a single order (well, two or three orders to Defense, Intelligence, and State). It wouldn’t have any immediately profound impact upon domestic politics or economics but it would certainly be devastating to Ukraine, and will cause a reevaluation among all of the NATO members about what they do and how much they can rely upon a Trump Administration (although I think they’re already pretty aware that the cannot). Although the executive has significant ability to impose or modify tariffs, the Constitutional authority actually lies with the Congress per Article i, Section 8, Clause 1: > _The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;_ It is possible that enough Republicans might push back to allow Congress to actually defy Trump on this point because of the compound and dire impacts a broad imposition of tariffs would actually have on local and state economies. However, regardless of whether they do or don’t, it takes some time to render an order for tariffs into duty schedules, and unless Trump’s first action is to disband the United States International Trade Commission and do it himself (somehow) it will take at least weeks if not months to assess and apply the sweeping array of tariffs that he has promised. This is one of the many ways Trump and his band of Heritage Foundation oafs have failed to understand their need for a bureaucracy to achieve what they want instead of just tearing everything down. I’m sure that Trump, and especially Stephen Miller and his cosplay _Sturmabteilung_ friends would like to engage in mass deportation starting on January 21 but the reality is that this is an ‘eating an elephant’ type task that would take an enormous logistical effort to enable this, and there is just isn’t the standing army of law enforcement agents to do this kind of work. ICE is perennially understaffed, it is not a mission that the FBI, DEA, or the Marshals Service is trained or composed for, and as large as it is, CBP just doesn’t have the workforce or facilities to handle rounding up more than a few tens of thousands of people at a time even if they just grab everyone who ‘looks suspicious’. (And no, Trump can’t just use the Army or federalize National Guard without declaring a national emergency, and as an organization it is not composed to perform law enforcement-type activities, and if we go down _that route_ immediately we have even bigger problems.) It took Germany under the Nazi regime years to build up the infrastructure and organization to engage in mass arrests and internment; if that is the first thing Trump does he is going to fall right on his face. Which is not to say he won’t try, and do a lot of harm in the process; it just won’t work and he’ll look stupid trying (not that this has ever stopped him). Putting US troops in Panama, refusing emergency funds or support to California for fire damage, threatening Denmark or Canada economically or even militarily, and telling NATO to “Fuck off!” while warmly embracing a ceremonial strategic or economic partnership with Russia are all likely possibilities for near term horribleness. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/12 "2025-01-16T21:08:02Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Moreover, is there ANYTHING he could do that will make ANY of his supporters rethink their support? I think not, but I guess I hold out the faintest of glimmers of hope that not every single person who voted for him is beyond all reason. Things would have to get pretty bad before a good number of them change their mind. They were fond of telling people facts don’t care about their feelings but these people don’t care about facts. They live in a separate reality. My suspicion is most of them will make a horrible face while they eat the shit sandwich Trump has served them, but they’ll blame the Democrats that it tastes so bad. Some of these people have already starting coping with the fact that Trump lied to them. “Oh, every politician lies,” is what they say when Trump decides H-1B Visas are good. The first really bad news I expect from the Trump administration is an announcement that is inauguration as successful, then I expect tariffs, and something about illegal immigrants. I imagine the Dreamers where I work will soon find their authorization to work either revoked or they won’t be permitted to get it renewed. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/13 "2025-01-16T21:23:17Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > Things would have to get pretty bad before a good number of them change their mind. They were fond of telling people facts don’t care about their feelings but these people don’t care about facts. They live in a separate reality. I think you are right. I’m just thinking of the very limited arguments I got from Trump supporters - that prices would drop, and he would do “something” about “the economy” and immigration. I think MAGAs are not unique in their ability to forget what they said was important yesterday, to excuse token efforts when bold sweeping action was promised, and to blame the opponents for any failures. But they do seem to be exceptionally good at such mental gymnastics. ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/14 "2025-01-16T21:35:22Z")
I think it’s likely that he will implement some kind of loyalty oath that all federal employees will have to sign. One reason why he couldn’t do as much damage the first time around was that the “Deep State” stymied him and they wouldn’t obey his wishes. Remember “Drain the Swamp”? I think that a lot of federal employees will leave Government or be fired for not signing the oath, which will cause problems that will impact thousands, if not millions, of US citizens. If any of those citizens happen to be MAGAs that might hit home for some of them. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/15 "2025-01-16T21:42:56Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > I think it’s likely that he will implement some kind of loyalty oath that all federal employees will have to sign. Yeah, a cow-orker brought this up today (general discussion - no Hatch violations! ;)) at my federal workplace today. He anticipated that folk will be required to return to work - even though telework is guaranteed in the various labor contracts. I wonder how he will get around the labor contracts. Or if somehow he can just DO something, hope people quit, and force the others to litigate. No big deal for me - I live 6 minutes from the office and am planning on retiring in \<3 years… I would definitely retire rather than sign an oath. More likely, I would expect early out offers. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/16 "2025-01-16T21:58:38Z")
The question that immediately came to mind is “bad news for who?”. Because Trump will be exceedingly bad news for a very broad swath of American society, both rich and poor, and internationally also for many countries, particularly Mexico, Iceland/Greenland, Panama, Ukraine, Canada, China, and to some degree much of western Europe. I tried to lay out some of the possibilities in my “compendium of horrors thread”, but I fear I only just scratched the surface. The question of who gets it in the ass first is somewhat moot, as eventually we all will, including the imbeciles who voted for him. It will be a very unpleasant four years and beyond, especially if he tanks the economy, alienates America’s allies, abandons Ukraine while strengthening Russia, and creates an immigration crisis and chaos in the workforce. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/17 "2025-01-16T22:14:55Z")
I expect some variation of, “No disaster aid for California until they outlaw abortion.” ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/18 "2025-01-16T22:28:32Z")
It depends on what you mean by “really bad news,” but I think what will probably be one of his first actions might qualify: a fairly complete blanket pardon of the January 6 insurrectionists. ---
**Author:** ![Zoobi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/13edae/32.png) [@Zoobi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoobi)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/19 "2025-01-16T22:32:12Z")
The massive internment or concentration camps that will be necessary to complete the large scale deportation efforts will be a breeding ground for violence and disease. I can easily imagine a new pandemic spreading from these camps placed along the border. ---
**Author:** ![colinfred](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colinfred/32/21338_2.png) [@colinfred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/colinfred)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054/20 "2025-01-16T22:34:52Z")
Forcing Israel into a ceasefire that will only delay 7/10 part 2 [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-expect-to-be-the-first-really-bad-news-from-the-trump-administration/1013054.md?page=2)