# What do you think are acceptable exit conditions for \[the Ukraine\] war? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 22, 2023, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189 "2023-02-22T01:41:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/162 "2023-02-23T22:09:13Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > If Russia keeps showing up with bullets and missiles then their logistics is in place and working. We might choose to believe that they’re exceeding their capacities and are on an unsustainable path. Maybe, all of a sudden, all of their supply lines will self-implode and Ukraine is able to move forward and stomp a bunch of unequipped guys, left stranded in the field. That’s kind of what’s been happening. Russia is now employing ‘human wave’ attacks with very little armor support. That suggests they have lots of mobiks to throw at Ukraine, but they are getting short of machinery. Those human wave attacks are failing miserably as well. If the limiter in this war is soldiers, then Russia still has a chance. If the limiter is the availability of armor and artillery, I don’t see how Russia wins. Well, there is one way - they drag China into the war as an arms supplier to offset NATO. That’s one way this war could break out of Ukraine and start flash points elsewhere. But if China substantively stays out of the conflict, Russia can’t win without nukes, and probably not with them, either. They can’t stand an artillery standoff, because with HIMARS and other weaponry Ukraine out-ranges them and has more accurate fire. With unlimited ammunition from the west, Ukraine arty can hold back beyond the range of Russian artillery and just pummel them from a distance. The number of artillery shells required to maintain a fixed-front war of attrition is insane. In WWI, something like 1.5 BILLION artillery shells were fired. You need constant, high speed production of these shells. The U.S. was making 14,000 155mm shells per month before the war, and is ramping that up to 90,000 shells per month as fast as they can. That’s a cost of about $1-2 billion per year just to make artillery shells. Then there’s the depletion of armor, small arms ammo, missiles, drones, artillery pieces, trucks, yada yada. If Russia can’t manage ongoing production to replace these things, the clock on the war is ticking. Estimates are that Russia was firing off close to 50,000 shells per day in the early war, and that has dropped off to somewhere between 6,000 and 20,000 artillery shells _per day._ The entire world production of artillery shells cannot sustain a depletion rate of 20,000 per day. Even after the U.S. expands production, it’s not even close to replacing that level of depletion. So both sides are running down their current stockpiles of artillery. But Ukraine can get replacements from the West, and Russia has no way to replace theirs without making them themselves. A 155mm artillery shell costs around $3,000-$5,000 to manufacture, so shooting off 20,000 per day has a replacement cost of $100 million, or $3 billion per month. Russia cannot afford that, and doesn’t have the factories to make them. Also, their mobilization has caused some of their best engineers and workers to either flee the country or get drafted into Ukraine. Something has to break, and it will happen when Russia depletes its stockpiles of artillery rounds. The question is, how many shells did the Soviet Union make and stockpile? I can’t find that number. I’m guessing North Korea has a gigantic stockpile, some of which might make their way to Russia. China as well. But ultimately, I don’t think Russia can sustain firing 20,000 shells per day for years. As for the missiles that have been raining down on Ukrainian cities, Russia has almost shot its wad. Estimates are that it only has about 13% of its Iskander missiles and 37% of its Kaliber cruise missiles left. And it only started using those a few months ago. That’s also unsustainable, and those are wickedly expensive to replace. Russia is trying to make 100-120 Iskanders per year, but they are having difficulty doing so. In the meantime, they’ve fired over 800 of them in less than a year. So that’s unsustainable as well. > **[Russia Is Firing 20,000 Artillery Rounds Per Day; Moscow Is Burning Its Amno...](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-is-firing-20000-artillery-rounds-per-day-moscow-burning/)** > > Ukraine’s Minister says there are four enemies of Russia’s missile arsenal while suggesting that the country is running low on missiles. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/163 "2023-02-23T22:09:55Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > That’s kind of what’s been happening. Russia is now employing ‘human wave’ attacks with very little armor support. That suggests they have lots of mobiks to throw at Ukraine, but they are getting short of machinery. Those human wave attacks are failing miserably as well. Then they should have massive casualty numbers and Ukraine should have small casualty numbers. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/164 "2023-02-23T22:13:51Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I want Putin to lose as much as anyone. Well, maybe not anyone, since I don’t want to start WWIII over it. The thing is that WWIII has already started. Just like WWII started when Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and Europe did their best to pretend that their appeasement would end it. I realize you were referring to nuclear escalation above, but the thing is that there is no outcome here that guarantees both a reduced risk of Russian expansionism, and a reduced risk of nuclear war. If we capitulate on Ukraine, then in a few years down the road we’ll be having a conversation about whether it’s really worth going to war over the Baltics, Poland, and so on. We know they’re capable of it because they did it in the Cold War, and they’ve never stopped talking about doing it again. The only thing that stops Russian expansionism is demonstrating strength, solidarity and resolve. Nothing else has ever achieved it. Not treaties, not sanctions, not strong words. Nothing else works, nothing else has ever worked, because Russia has never valued peace as much as expansion. As to the outcome here, I’m not interested in regime change. Removing Putin is useless as the Russian people are the real problem. The correct outcome is to push them back to 2014 borders in Ukraine, and to 2008 borders in Georgia, and take control of whatever they’re doing in Transnistria. Then admit Sweden, Ukraine, and Finland, and then any other country who demonstrates the desire and means to join the partnership. Maximal counter-expansionism that stops only at Russia’s pre-2008 borders. We need to be clear here: now that Putin has broken the seal on invading a European country, the risk of nuclear war is going to be elevated for quite some time, and there is absolutely no way to reduce it. Today they’re threatening nukes over Ukraine. If we don’t face it down, then it will be “is Poland worth getting Nuked?” Then Estonia, then Latvia, then Poland, then East Germany. The only responsible course of action is to meet their force with superior force; anything else leads to worse risks down the road. The die is cast, and we need to stop pretending it can be un-cast. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2023, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/165 "2023-02-23T22:24:28Z")
nm, brain fart ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/166 "2023-02-24T00:04:03Z")
Is he selling tanks on the parking lot, or tanks not yet built? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/167 "2023-02-24T01:16:16Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Nitpick: The design was good; the tanks that actually rolled off the assembly line, maybe not so much. That isn’t what the Germans thought. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/168 "2023-02-24T01:29:15Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Then Estonia, then Latvia, then Poland, then East Germany. I suspect Sweden and Finland would be the last prior to a NATO country, as it would push out the article V question, and both were at some point part of the Russian empire. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/169 "2023-02-24T01:53:09Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I suspect Sweden and Finland would be the last prior to a NATO country, as it would push out the article V question, and both were at some point part of the Russian empire. Russia has not fared so well warring with the Finns, and as for the Swedes: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/-7Ez5UAvJSg/maxresdefault.jpg "Saab JAS 39 Gripen Multirole Fighter") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7Ez5UAvJSg) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/170 "2023-02-24T02:01:52Z")
I didn’t say it would be smart. Just that I imagine Putin has a list, and it culminated with Finland and Sweden. If he got that far (following Ukraine and Moldova), then he’d consider Poland and the Baltics. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/171 "2023-02-24T02:08:02Z")
He’d be better off going to straight to Liechtenstein. He can’t reach it but at least he might have a prayer of intimidating it into some kind of compromise in a bluff charge. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/172 "2023-02-24T02:10:19Z")
Better yet, Grand Fenwick. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/173 "2023-02-24T02:21:04Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > I suspect Sweden and Finland would be the last prior to a NATO country, as it would push out the article V question, and both were at some point part of the Russian empire. Sweden would confer upon Russia no obvious benefit in terms of defending the Russian heartland. Ukraine (and Poland, Belarus, etc.) do. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/174 "2023-02-24T02:23:27Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That isn’t what the Germans thought. The Russians drove new tanks from their factories to the front lines to fight Nazis. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/175 "2023-02-24T02:44:43Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Sweden would confer upon Russia no obvious benefit in terms of defending the Russian heartland. Ukraine (and Poland, Belarus, etc.) do. Why did Peter the Great go to war with Sweden? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/176 "2023-02-24T02:47:09Z")
If the West would finally stop being chicken and increase its arms shipments to Ukraine 3-fold or 4-fold, I see no reason why Ukraine couldn’t roll Russia totally out of every inch of Ukrainian soil. The three ingredients are willpower, manpower, and weaponry. Ukraine has the first two. All it lacks is the third. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/177 "2023-02-24T03:21:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If the West would finally stop being chicken and increase its arms shipments to Ukraine 3-fold or 4-fold That’s easier said than done: 1. The West does not have a limitless supply of weaponry and does need to look to other defense requirements. 2. You cannot just dump anything in Ukraine; tanks don’t drive themselves, planes don’t fly themselves, stuff needs to be learned. Equipment is of no use if not properly learned about, deployed to the right people in the right places, and in amounts that make sense relative to one another in terms of the application of proper combined arms approaches. 2a. All equipment presents logistical issues. The gift of 100+ modern main battle tanks means you must also lend the Ukrainians supplies of the 120mm ammunition that Abrams and Leopard II both use, a type of ammunition that so far as I can recall is used in not one single other weapons platform Ukraine possesses. That’s just one little thing; there’s a zillion others. Spare parts alone for all this Western shit will take just epic amounts of effort to keep track of and move around. 1. Frankly, the “boil the frog” approach is working. As sympathetic as I am to the Ukrainians, NATO needs to look to their own interests as well, and going all-in batshit in March 2023 may have triggered general war. This approach grinds Russia down, which is very, very good for us. ---
**Author:** ![Ssounder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d07c76/32.png) [@Ssounder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ssounder)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/178 "2023-02-24T03:29:39Z")
Not applicable to the current state of affairs. Putin is pinned in to the west and now southwest. Is he going to say hey, let’s piss someone off in the northwest too? Russia’s logistics are notoriously primitive. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/179 "2023-02-24T03:47:55Z")
If you want to lift the ante and give as Putin, Sun Tzu would say “a golden bridge to retreat across” then PRC could recognise an opportunity from the inherent weakness in the Russian military and launch it’s own invasion in the east, say a redux of the border dispute in Tajikistan from 1969. Putin could then argue the necessity to withdraw from his expansionist strategy to defend Russian soil. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/180 "2023-02-24T03:49:01Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Removing Putin is useless as the Russian people are the real problem. Maybe you are a Cold War-era Boomer, I don’t know. I’m 36 and for the vast majority of my life I have witnessed no problem with the Russian people. I’m pretty sure the problem is Putin. ---
**Author:** ![Ssounder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d07c76/32.png) [@Ssounder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ssounder)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2023, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189/181 "2023-02-24T04:10:28Z")
Nobody is fighting against the Russian people. It’s the government that rules their people/neighbors with an iron fist that a coalition of free counties are standing united in opposition to. This clash has been ongoing far longer than your lifespan. Hopefully the book on this will close soon. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-are-acceptable-exit-conditions-for-the-ukraine-war/980189.md?page=10)