What do you think are the odds of the US descending into a second civil war in the next decade?

[Der_Trihs]

@Cartooniverse

There won’t be a civil war before there’s a bloodless coup.

China will not only call in our debt but crush our infrastructures with hacks.

Then there’s a nuclear exchange, and we’re all too busy scrabbling in the ruins to have a civil war. Which is why China won’t do anything that stupid.

[Ferris]

@HeyHomie

I see it as something akin to The Troubles – a years-long (or decades-long) period of intermittent violence. Car bombings, ambushes, sabotage, that sort of thing.

With the current administration, I would have thought at the first sign of something like this - whoever starts it - Trump would take it as a valid excuse to ramp up forced deportation (or even summary execution) of those groups he dislikes most.

If the State starts fighting back disproportionately, the deciding factor might be the military’s willingness to fire on civilians. Something like the Russian Revolution?

[China_Guy]

[quote=“Cartooniverse, post:20, topic:1024317”]
China will not only call in our debt [/quote]

This is total BS.

1. China owns 2.1% of the US government debt. In other words, $750 billion treasury debt out of $37 trillion total.
2. Japan and the UK own more US government debt than China.
3. Total US (excluding non financial sector debt is ~$80 trillion. US federal debt is $33 trillion, corporate is $22 trillion, with State and Local government debt at $4.5 trillion.
4. The average daily trading volume of only US treasuries over the past year is about $1 trillion per day. High volume days can exceed $1.5 trillion.
5. If somehow, a mass sell-off of US debt holdings in a single day by China were to occur, it represents only half of a high volume day.

Just how, pray tell, is China’s paltry $750 billion dollars significant leverage?

[I tend to agree with you on the infra side, but it is to laugh that China’s treasury holdings are a big stick to be afraid of.]

[OldOlds]

I’ve said this before, but my work brings me into contact with a number of retired Colonels. I don’t find them to be particularly right wing or MAGA, and all are intelligent and thoughtful.

They might be Reagan Republicans, but they ain’t MAGA Republicans. Anecdote, I know.

Add to that the fact that 30% of active duty military identify as racial minorities and I think you will be hard pressed to get the military to participate.

[Horatius]

@Ferris

I would have thought at the first sign of something like this - whoever starts it - Trump would take it as a valid excuse to ramp up forced deportation (or even summary execution) of those groups he dislikes most.

Which would just make the armed resistance that much bigger. This would highlight the absurdity of Trump’s obsession. There’s actual fighting going on, and he’s diverting troops to deport grandmothers and children? Nice priorities, there, buddy. At the same time he has fewer soldiers available to fight, he’ll be creating even more active revolutionaries.

[Der_Trihs]

@OldOlds

Add to that the fact that 30% of active duty military identify as racial minorities and I think you will be hard pressed to get the military to participate.

Which is why the Trumpists are purging the military leadership of non-white men and non-toadies.