Then there’s a nuclear exchange, and we’re all too busy scrabbling in the ruins to have a civil war. Which is why China won’t do anything that stupid.
With the current administration, I would have thought at the first sign of something like this - whoever starts it - Trump would take it as a valid excuse to ramp up forced deportation (or even summary execution) of those groups he dislikes most.
If the State starts fighting back disproportionately, the deciding factor might be the military’s willingness to fire on civilians. Something like the Russian Revolution?
[quote=“Cartooniverse, post:20, topic:1024317”]
China will not only call in our debt [/quote]
This is total BS.
- China owns 2.1% of the US government debt. In other words, $750 billion treasury debt out of $37 trillion total.
- Japan and the UK own more US government debt than China.
- Total US (excluding non financial sector debt is ~$80 trillion. US federal debt is $33 trillion, corporate is $22 trillion, with State and Local government debt at $4.5 trillion.
- The average daily trading volume of only US treasuries over the past year is about $1 trillion per day. High volume days can exceed $1.5 trillion.
- If somehow, a mass sell-off of US debt holdings in a single day by China were to occur, it represents only half of a high volume day.
Just how, pray tell, is China’s paltry $750 billion dollars significant leverage?
[I tend to agree with you on the infra side, but it is to laugh that China’s treasury holdings are a big stick to be afraid of.]
I’ve said this before, but my work brings me into contact with a number of retired Colonels. I don’t find them to be particularly right wing or MAGA, and all are intelligent and thoughtful.
They might be Reagan Republicans, but they ain’t MAGA Republicans. Anecdote, I know.
Add to that the fact that 30% of active duty military identify as racial minorities and I think you will be hard pressed to get the military to participate.
Which would just make the armed resistance that much bigger. This would highlight the absurdity of Trump’s obsession. There’s actual fighting going on, and he’s diverting troops to deport grandmothers and children? Nice priorities, there, buddy. At the same time he has fewer soldiers available to fight, he’ll be creating even more active revolutionaries.
Which is why the Trumpists are purging the military leadership of non-white men and non-toadies.
Two things had to happen for the US civil war. First the south had to secede and then southern hotheads had to decide to attack Fort Sumter. What would have happened if only the first step had taken place? Would the situation have eventually stabilized with two separate countries which might eventually somehow agreed to the status quo, with slavery in the Confederacy and banned in what was left of the US.
There is not the same geographical separation now, but I could imagine the west coast states joining the northeastern states to separate.
It may look more like the Spanish civil war. A rebellious faction seizes territory but not necessarily separated by existing political boundaries. The current divisions in the US are between cities and rural areas. Remember Paradise CA? el donald won 60% of the vote there in 2016.
I doubt it; the slavers couldn’t tolerate (or survive) the existence of the free states. They were both an ideological threat to the slavers, and were outcompeting the slave states to such an extent that if the North was permitted to exist and continue developing, it would inevitably turn the Confederacy into a subject nation if it didn’t bother re-conquering them. And on top of that, the South had an ideologically driven drive to spread slavery via force.
They had to either conquer and destroy the free states, or be destroyed or subjugated by them.
But the US tolerated the existence of British North American and of Mexico when they outlawed slavery. Mexico even borders Texas.
MAGA is a Political Cult of Personality.
100%.
When Trump goes, the coalition of Evil will collapse into infighting.
Whether or not blood is spilled is iffy.
But unlikely to be lots, or last long.
Because the US took over a big chunk of Mexico so as to expand slavery. And the South had plans for further conquests, protecting & promoting slavery was pretty much the sole focus of their culture. I recall reading how Southerners who heard sermons in Northern churches expressed surprise that the Bible actually spoke on any other subject than defending slavery.
So are you saying that it was the South that drove the Mexican-American War, and that they had further designs on Mexico?
On all of Central America and surrounding regions in general. And yes.
I fully expect something like the Years of Lead by 2030. A full blown civil war like what Lincoln fought? Most likely not. This can change in the future though. I fully expect American society (and global civilization as a whole) to collapse (or become something no sane and moral person would want to live in) by 2100.