# What do you think is the likelihood that something HUGE and terrible will happen? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 19, 2003, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010 "2003-02-19T00:31:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/1 "2003-02-19T00:31:05Z")
What do you think is the likelihood that something HUGE and terrible will happen? What I mean is something like a large scale chemical attack on a major city. Or biological weapons killing many thousands of people. Or a nuclear bomb. Do you think it is actually likely that this will happen in the near future (say, the next 5 years)? ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/2 "2003-02-19T00:34:55Z")
You mean bigger than 9/11? If you’re talking 9/11 size, it obviously happened once recently, and can happen again. ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/3 "2003-02-19T00:38:56Z")
I mean bigger. I mean really, really big. ---
**Author:** ![Lorenzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4da419/32.png) [@Lorenzo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lorenzo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/4 "2003-02-19T00:53:50Z")
You mean like Armageddon? The end of the world as we know it? The Big One? That big? Or just something bigger than has ever before been that big? ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/5 "2003-02-19T01:36:15Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by autz \* > \*\*What I mean is something like a large scale chemical attack on a major city. Or biological weapons killing many thousands of people. Or a nuclear bomb. > \*\* ---
**Author:** ![ResIpsaLoquitor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b3f665/32.png) [@ResIpsaLoquitor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ResIpsaLoquitor)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/6 "2003-02-19T01:45:09Z")
The sun WILL eventually explode, so hey, I’d say our chances are 100%. ---
**Author:** ![Sylkyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/da6949/32.png) [@Sylkyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sylkyn)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/7 "2003-02-19T01:45:24Z")
I’m thinking that I was totally unprepared for 9/11, so now, I’m thinking anything of any size can happen. I’m not freaking out about it…but I’m not _not_ expecting it either. If 9/11 could happen to us…then of course anything bigger can happen. Sooner or later, and I much prefer later. Like after my great-great-great grandkids are dead. But yeah, sure. It could also happen tonight. I think the likelihood is there for it to happen at any time. [sub]Hopefully after “The Shield” is over…I just looooove that show.[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/8 "2003-02-19T01:48:51Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ResIpsaLoquitor \* > \*\*The sun WILL eventually explode, so hey, I’d say our chances are 100%. \*\* I said within the next 5 years. (This is the third explanation of my OP. Did anyone really read it?) ---
**Author:** ![dangermom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e274bd/32.png) [@dangermom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dangermom)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/9 "2003-02-19T02:58:54Z")
Are you counting terrorist activities only? Are we confining ourselves to the US, or is this worldwide? Does widespread slaughter by a government or war count, or just chem/bio/nuke? Yes, I read the OP, it just wasn’t specific enough. ---
**Author:** ![Annie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/858c86/32.png) [@Annie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/10 "2003-02-19T04:48:48Z")
You were specific enough. Shit, fan, high impact. I dunno.30% ? I’m not moving to the bush or anything though. I’m pretty apathetic. ---
**Author:** ![Marduk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Marduk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marduk)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/11 "2003-02-19T04:53:38Z")
For some reason I am reminded of the Invader Zim X-mas episode. Little Child: Because Santa lives on in the hearts and minds of us all? Snowman: No. Because he lives out in space! Gathering power to return! _Alarms blare_ Oh! It looks like he’s here now! RAISE the shields children! ---
**Author:** ![Michael\_Ellis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/977dab/32.png) [@Michael\_Ellis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Michael_Ellis)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/12 "2003-02-19T07:24:03Z")
The odds are roughly 1:1, IMO. Ah ha, you ask, the odds of what? I’m not going to tell you. I’m a bitch. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/13 "2003-02-19T07:35:03Z")
Anywhere in the world? Shit…It’s gonna happen somewhere, forget likelihood, it’s a done deal, 100% count on it! How bad? Now that’s a real question. MILLIONS ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/14 "2003-02-19T16:32:29Z")
I think something massively huge and (within our mortal time frame) permanently horrible _could_ happen. Massive proliferation of nuclear weapons, and their use by various and assorted groups attempting to fight what they regard as an Empire of Evil (which would be the US and its allies), followed by, on fairly short notice, a dramatic and global decrease in individual privacy and freedom of movement, and dwindling individual rights in all other areas over the next 5-20 years; quelling of domestic resistance to that (freedom-and-rights rallies /marches /speakouts) in increasingly brutal suppression of freedom of speech/assembly/press. End of the “democratic free world” as we know it, mostly at the hands of our own governments as they attempt to respond to terrorism with increasingly universal surveillance and behavior-tabulating, morphing into increasingly invasive and restrictive controls on individual behavior. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/15 "2003-02-19T17:19:52Z")
**Autz** - I read your Op and I have an answer. No. I do not think there will be a massive biological.nuclear attack on the United States. One of our biggest and most formidable defenses is the sheer size of our country, and the massive oceans seperating us from the rest of the world. Looking at your OP you are in Tucson. I would not worry about much there, **Autz** ok. I seriously doubt any terrorist is going to blow up Palo Verde Nuke plant, especially with all those jets flying around from Luke. I think you need to do some more research, and really take a good look at what is actually happening in the world. Understanding can be a very good friend. There are certainly people in the world that want to do the US harm, on a grand scale. But I certainly believe they do not have the means to carry out the kind of large scale attack you are postulating. A small attack possibly, maybe even a series of small devistating attacks. But not mass murder or a nuclear bomb, I just do not see it happening… ---
**Author:** ![Lorenzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4da419/32.png) [@Lorenzo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lorenzo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/16 "2003-02-19T17:49:45Z")
[QUOTE] \*Originally posted by Phlosphr \* \*\*\*\*Autz **I think you need to do some more research, and really take a good look at what is actually happening in the world. Understanding can be a very good friend.** With all due respect, **Autz** asked the question but never posted her views, implied as they may be. Your response seems to suggest it was wrong for her to ask the question. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/17 "2003-02-19T18:39:59Z")
Absolutely not!! **Lorenzo** I think she should have asked the question, and it was a very good one at that. BUt I detect a slight sense of anxiety in the post, and with more knowledge about the current global situation, that anxiety may be a litttle quelled. Thats all. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/18 "2003-02-19T19:29:25Z")
> [@](#): > > Absolutely not!!Lorenzo I think she should have asked the question, and it was a very good one at that. BUt I detect a slight sense of anxiety in the post, and with more knowledge about the current global situation, that anxiety may be a litttle quelled. Thats all. I fail to see where the “anxiety” comes from, yet you devoted 3/4 of your response to a rather patronizing statement. I suspect you were projecting what you _thought_ **autz** ’s state of mind ought to be. ---
**Author:** ![Lorenzo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4da419/32.png) [@Lorenzo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lorenzo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/19 "2003-02-19T19:34:06Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Phlosphr \* > **…with more knowledge about the current global situation, that anxiety may be a litttle quelled.** Good advice to any of the anxious among us. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Bad\_Astronomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@The\_Bad\_Astronomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Bad_Astronomer)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2003, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010/20 "2003-02-19T21:48:59Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by ResIpsaLoquitor \* > \*\*The sun WILL eventually explode \*\* No it won’t. It lacks the mass to explode. It will die by becoming a red giant, [blowing a (relatively) dense solar wind](http://www.badastronomy.com/bitesize/sn87a_explosion.html), losing its outer layers, and finally becoming a white dwarf. No boom, just a long, drawn out sigh. We’re still toast though. As far as the next five years, a lot of things can happen. There could be a big meteor strike. Part of the island of La Palma could slip into the sea, creating a vast tsunami which wipes out the US east coast. Etc. These are high-risk but low-probability events for any given time, but dead certainties over the long range. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-likelihood-that-something-huge-and-terrible-will-happen/156010.md?page=2)