# What do you think is the most likely outcome of the Republican primary? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 4, 2016, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945 "2016-03-04T18:46:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/1 "2016-03-04T18:46:09Z")
I am attaching a poll with four options. This is the most unusual race that I’ve witnessed since I started following politics. I’d like to get the collective wisdom of the dope on this most interesting issue. This is the first time I have posted a poll, so please forgive me if I mess it up on this first attempt 😛 ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/2 "2016-03-04T18:52:13Z")
I added a fifth option, although my guess is that the fifth option is the least likely outcome. My vote is for Trump winning with a majority of the delegates. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/3 "2016-03-04T18:57:09Z")
Once FL and OH come in for Donald, it will be all over but the crying. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/4 "2016-03-04T18:58:14Z")
I think it is possible the convention will be contested, and because Cruz has the highest delegate count of all the non-Trumps, the nomination will ultimately be thrown to Cruz. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/5 "2016-03-04T18:58:28Z")
Looking at it right now Trump wins with a majority of the delegates. There’s a long way to go, it’s just common sense to assume the current delegate leader will win in the end, but it’s nowhere near decided yet. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/6 "2016-03-04T19:15:51Z")
At this point, I think any discussion of Trump not getting the nomination is wishful thinking along the lines of “If only 90% of that district has reported their votes, maybe the last 10% are entirely for the underdog!” Yes, it is _possible_, but at a certain point it is so statistically unlikely that it’s not even worth thinking about. In my opinion, it is more likely that Trump has a heart attack than that he is voted out. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2016, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-is-the-most-likely-outcome-of-the-republican-primary/747945/7 "2016-03-04T19:32:47Z")
I’d bet on Trump wins outright at this point – around 80-85% chance. I don’t think there’s any chance (or any more than about 1%) that any other candidate wins outright, so the remaining likelihood would be for a contested convention.