# What do you think will be the next terrorist attack? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 9, 2003, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922 "2003-02-09T18:46:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![I\_Know\_Lots](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@I\_Know\_Lots](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Know_Lots)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2003, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/41 "2003-02-10T23:25:06Z")
It is very right to say that attacks on state/economic infrastructure are quickly forgotten, but attacks on innocent civilians are not. Look at the Provisional IRA: killing some poor squaddie in Belfast became very routine; suspect devices interfering with the London rail networks was annoying to Londoners and irrelevant outside London; blow up a pub in Guildford or Birmingham and everyone is terrified. Out of the 1998 embassy bombings, the USS Cole, 9/11 nad Bali, which two are foremost in the mind of the average Westerner? Attacking civilians is also much easier than attack a military target or blowing up some reinforced structure like a bridge. The other thing to consider is that after the act has happened it most be obviously that it was an act of terrorism, not an accident or natural disaster. So, for instance, although the forest fire idea is a great way of spreading destruction with just a 30 pence box of matches, how are we to know it wasn’t just from a cigarette or camp fire? The same would go for various other techniques, e.g. mass food poisoning. So it’ll be (a) probably on Western civilians and (b) obviously a deliberate human act. And probably next time © on **LONDON** , cos that place has really got it coming. ---
**Author:** ![TheeGrumpy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/779978/32.png) [@TheeGrumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheeGrumpy)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/42 "2003-02-11T00:01:59Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally posted by **I Know Lots** > Well, which group of evil Westerners stand “shoulder-to-shoulder” with the Great Satan and haven’t yet had a successful terrorist attack visited on them? > It’s going to be LONDON. This assumes that there is a larger strategy, as if a single person was directing each attack, coordinating them like a wedding planner. Except that lately they all appear to be happening whenever and wherever the bad guys can muster up the capability. Also, we seem to be talking about two different things: the next terrorist attack, and the next terrorist _super_-attack. Granted, there’s a gray area between them. A truck bomb adjacent to a nuclear power plant is which? Depends on the amount of TV coverage (does the attack get its own logo?). What about the anthrax attacks – major news coverage, a lot of disruption, but few fatalities. I vote dirty bomb in shipping containers, contaminating several ports simultaneously and forcing closures for over a week. ---
**Author:** ![leroy\_the\_mule](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/6a8cbe/32.png) [@leroy\_the\_mule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leroy_the_mule)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/43 "2003-02-11T00:34:31Z")
I woke up in a heart-pounding sweat from a nightmare last night. We were in a crowded public facility, where a group of gunmen with automatic weapons was mowing us down. This seems entirely possible to me, given the easy access of guns in the U.S., and the vivid helplessness and terror of the nightmare. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Mac\_Rame](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Mac\_Rame](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mac_Rame)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/44 "2003-02-11T02:03:06Z")
**edwino** asked: > [@](#): > > Is there any evidence of weaponized smallpox being anywhere? We talk and talk and talk about smallpox, but the last I heard there were only two stocks – one in the CDC and one in the equivalent in Moscow. Is all of this smallpox terrorism fear assuming that a) someone weaponized it and b) it fell into the wrong hands? Sure, it is a helluva scary disease and seemingly tailormade for suicidal nutjobs looking to inflict maximum casualties, but a) and b) are quite large assumptions to be made. It is not that I really doubt that it can be done, it is just that I haven’t heard anything directly. The former first deputy director of the Soviet Union’s Biopreparat program, Dr. Ken Alibek, wrote in his book [Biohazard](http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0385334966/qid=1044927069/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/002-5160880-1831248?v=glance&s=books) about the extent the Soviet Union went to weaponizing a variety of biological agents. In addition to weaponizing drug resistant anthrax, Ebola, and a number of others they made significant progress on smallpox. He also states within the book that a number of his staff may have ended up in other countries to advance the studies after the closing of the bioweapons program. As to whether or not other countries have smallpox, he states this: > [@](#): > > No, I would say that we shouldn’t be naïve to think that there are just two depositories in the world stockpiling smallpox. In Russia, in the U.S. when this decision was made, it didn’t mean that it was an obligatory requirement for all countries. [here.](http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/21/204923.shtml) Within the same he also states within the link that it is his opinion that N.Korea does have smallpox and Iraq may. I hope that he is wrong but he is a pretty damning source. Another short and interesting read about him can be found at [The Scientist](http://www.the-scientist.com/yr2000/apr/hollon_p18_000417.html). Registration is required but it is free and they haven’t spammed me yet. As to the OP, I vote for the simple, violent and maximizing in shock value, along the lines of what was suggested by **toadspittle** and **leroy\_the\_mule**. Smallpox, I pray, is to difficult for the terrorists to utilize. Guns and easily made explosives, OTOH, are cheap and plentiful, as are the people who know how to use them. I also am of the opinion that all Western Countries and their allies are as likely as the US to be hit. From the point of view of a terrorist, the differences between the US, Italians, the Turks or the Germans are few and far between. Of course, that is just a WAG. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/45 "2003-02-11T02:18:23Z")
In one of the speeches Bin Laden said “we will kill your children”. I thought of Children’s Hospital in Little Rock and a truck bomb. I was glad Clinton isn’t President. ---
**Author:** ![tiny\_ham](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a183cd/32.png) [@tiny\_ham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tiny_ham)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/46 "2003-02-11T02:28:32Z")
Interestingly, On the list of **Smartest Things I’ve Ever Done** I am **not finding** : Reading this thread Right before Bedtime :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/47 "2003-02-11T04:10:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Truck bomb pulls over to the shoulder of I-5 directly opposite the San Onofre nuclear facility (between LA and San Diego). Boom. How far away is the containment building from the interstate? Unless it’s like, 20 feet away, a chemical bomb like the Oklahoma city bomb isn’t going to do anything. Conventional explosives rely on the overpressure from the blast to do damage. They work best in enclosed spaces like underground garages. Set off a truck bomb outside more than a few feet away from a concrete containment building, and it’ll do absolutely jack. I would expect the next attack to be something very different. Imagine a zamboni at an NHL game, with the snow hopper filled with explosives and packed with nails and screws. Drive it out into the middle of the ice and detonate it, and you’ve got a horror on your hands. Tens of thousands of casualties. And I doubt the security is all that high around the Zamboni, y’know? That’s the problem with a free society, when it comes to terrorism. It’s all so chaotic and there are so many ways in which people come together that you just can’t plug all the gaps. And even if you plug 99% of them, all the terrorists have to do is wait until you show your plan, then choose the other 1% of targets. That said, my guess would be that the next target of a major attack will be Israel. al-Qaida’s stated goal is to push other Muslim countries away from the west, and cause a general muslim uprising against us. How better to inflame that situation than to goad the Israelis into an incredibly powerful counter-attack? The minute the Israeli military starts actively attacking targets in Muslim countries, the Middle East is going to go nuts. I notice that Israel has closed the Gaza strip, and has been particularly active in arresting and busting up terrorist rings in the last week or so. I guess they’re worried about the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Beagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Beagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beagle)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/48 "2003-02-11T05:19:55Z")
> [@](#): > > I would expect the next attack to be something very different. Imagine a zamboni at an NHL game, with the snow hopper filled with explosives and packed with nails and screws. Drive it out into the middle of the ice and detonate it, and you’ve got a horror on your hands. Tens of thousands of casualties. And I doubt the security is all that high around the Zamboni, y’know? Black Sunday, On Ice -------- the movie. Oh, I would not be surprised - sadly - to see a dirty bomb detonated. That’s a twofer in the eyes of a terrorist. Immediate damage and lasting horror. Some things about technology suck. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/49 "2003-02-11T05:32:50Z")
Slight hijack here, but what do you think would be American reaction if Al Qaeda’s next target was one of the IRS buildings? ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/50 "2003-02-11T05:35:20Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Tuckerfan \* > \*\*Slight hijack here, but what do you think would be American reaction if Al Qaeda’s next target was one of the IRS buildings? \*\* My guess? Mourning for the lives lost, per normal, but mixed with hints of guilty pleasure for some. But mostly mourning. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/51 "2003-02-11T13:26:21Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Tuckerfan \* > \*\*Slight hijack here, but what do you think would be American reaction if Al Qaeda’s next target was one of the IRS buildings? \*\* Those b\*\*\*\*\*ds have day care, too. ---
**Author:** ![tiny\_ham](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a183cd/32.png) [@tiny\_ham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tiny_ham)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/52 "2003-02-11T15:05:51Z")
I was just thinking this morning about the poster who said ‘something that could be played out live on t.v.’, and then I was thinking about how first they attacked our ‘evil business capitalist practices’ by bringing down WTC. And then I thought of the Academy Awards. Sin, sex, violence, debauchery…that’s Hollywood. Live on t.v., cripple our entertainment industry? Scary. ---
**Author:** ![blinx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a5b964/32.png) [@blinx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blinx)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/53 "2003-02-11T15:15:39Z")
Or perhaps next time terrorists strike, it will be by bombing Baghdad? ---
**Author:** ![PunditLisa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/4af34b/32.png) [@PunditLisa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PunditLisa)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/54 "2003-02-11T15:34:41Z")
> [@](#): > > But if you get could six martial arts experts on a plane, and had some way of getting through the cockpit door, would that be a feasible way of repeating 9/11? I don’t think so. First of all, I think you underestimate security. I doubt six middle-eastern men are going to get on board any one plane without raising red flags. Secondly, six unarmed men, even martial artists, would be hard pressed to take on a plane full of angry, motivated people. We won’t get fooled again. Finally, the pilots are smarter now. None of them tried defense maneuvering (barrel rolls or sudden changes in altitude) because they didn’t know what the terrorists were up to. And if the terrorists could somehow pry the cockpit door open, it would take time. Time for the pilot to take the plane down if he really had to. Nope. I think an airplane is one of the safest places you can be anymore. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/55 "2003-02-11T15:51:02Z")
I’ve seen a packed crowd of 120,000 open up to receive an ambulance into its midst. I’m glad I don’t go to things like Glastonbury or Lolapalooza any more. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/56 "2003-02-11T16:48:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SentientMeat \* > \*\*I’ve seen a packed crowd of 120,000 open up to receive an ambulance into its midst. > \*\* The Israelis claim that the Palestinians use ambulances to carry explosives. I wonder how hard it would be to steal one when the attendents go to lunch. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/57 "2003-02-11T20:54:09Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Bosda Di’Chi of Tricor \* > **I suspect Al Quida is falling apart under the arrests, the loss of funding, dead or missing leadership…** I hadta open me big yapper. :smack: > **[Breaking International News & Views](https://www.reuters.com/)** ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2003, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922/58 "2003-02-11T21:24:35Z")
If they can put together clips, why can’t we? Make a tape wherein Osama says he likes little boys when he gets drunk every night and stuff. Thinks about Ashcroft when he whacks off. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-do-you-think-will-be-the-next-terrorist-attack/153922.md?page=2)