# What does the GOP do about 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 27, 2019, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476 "2019-01-27T09:31:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/41 "2019-01-27T21:36:40Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > \*All the polls- even among independents- pointed to a Hillary win. \* Yeah, at the end, 538 was giving Trump a 30% chance of winning. That’s not the sort of risk you mentally round down to zero. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/42 "2019-01-27T21:40:46Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > You’re missing the point, but only because I didn’t present it convincingly. It’s not the ban itself but the betrayal that counts. Ah, you mean like the way his base is pissed that, instead of Mexico paying for the wall, he now wants them to pay for it. Yeah, it’s the betrayal. Fer sher. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/43 "2019-01-27T21:42:05Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > The Republican nightmare is Pence resigns causing Trump to keel over, making Pelosi President. Pelosi is like a freaking whack-a-mole. Ain’t she just? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/44 "2019-01-27T21:44:49Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > No really, what were those “hard core promises”? Also, if he’s talking about NRA money, he’s talking about Russian money, so apparently **pkbites** is like the C-Span lady who called in and thanked Russia for beating Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/45 "2019-01-27T22:10:07Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Also, if he’s talking about NRA money, he’s talking about Russian money, so apparently **pkbites** is like the C-Span lady who called in and thanked Russia for beating Hillary. Well you know, some things are just **so** important that even betraying your country to a hostile foreign power pales by comparison. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/46 "2019-01-27T22:21:49Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > You’re missing the point, but only because I didn’t present it convincingly. It’s not the ban itself but the betrayal that counts. > > Gun rights advocates are typically reliable Republican voters. The GOA/NRA spent millions to help get him elected and he made hard promises to their agenda. And for every NRA/GOA member there are many more voters who are not members but share their ideology. > > Trump quickly flipped on a couple of key gun rights issues. I want to emphasize how quickly he flipped. That base stayed home in 1992 against Bush and could do the same in 2020. Doing that plus the absence of campaigning/money is a significant loss to any candidate. Now throw in all the other hi-jinx and the egg he has on his face recently. Dollars to doughnuts that you vote Republican in 2020 as you likely have your entire life. If gun “rights” are your issue, you vote Republican. What else are you going to do? Vote Democratic? I don’t think so. I don’t care if the Dem nominee campaigns with an AK-47 strapped to his chest, he will not win the gun vote. Russia and the NRA will dump plenty of money and their bots will put up plenty of Facebook posts to make every gun fanatic scared shitless to do anything but vote Republican. What the GOP does next year is open to speculation. I assume that they will not run a candidate who is in federal prison- a distinct possibility for Donald. Assuming that he is in office next year, he will be the nominee and if it destroys the party, they would rather let that happen than alienate the racist scum that make up the Republican base. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/47 "2019-01-27T22:27:09Z")
The GOP wet dream would be Warren on the Dem ticket and Bernie on the Independent ticket. If that happens, the GOP would win the election even if their ticket was McConnell/Kavanaugh. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/48 "2019-01-27T23:00:13Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > You have _customers?_ I thought you were a cop. I own a gun store as well. > [@k9bfriender](#): > > Well, to be fair, they were inspired to buy them by the actions of a mass murderer, so I’m not feeling too sorry for them. No they weren’t. Plenty of people bought them prior to that. And the BATFE documented that they were legal. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/49 "2019-01-27T23:36:01Z")
**pkbites** , why in the world did your customers spend hundreds of dollars for an item they could have easily made themselves? Are gun owners just that foolish? And I hate to break it to you, but that organization you belong to, that channeled so much money to Trump’s election? Their goal isn’t gun rights. Their goal is to ensure that Putin will be able to rebuild the old Soviet Union. That’s what they paid for, and that’s what they’re getting. ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/50 "2019-01-27T23:39:12Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > The GOP wet dream would be Warren on the Dem ticket and Bernie on the Independent ticket. If that happens, the GOP would win the election even if their ticket was McConnell/Kavanaugh. For the most part, at least in my memory, Democrats just won’t run as a Third Party or mount any kind of splinter campaign. Bernie proved that all too well last time around. It is far more likely that if we see a “also run” it will come from the Republican side from their moderates who accept/feel that our current POTUS never really was part of “their” party as they see it. Their best/secret hope is that we end up with someone as bat-shit-crazy-far-Left as possible and right now I can’t even come up with a name other than -------- well, you gotta admit; Nancy is a little extreme sometimes. But I think you have to go far further and nuttier than even her. In other words; forget the Democrats spurring a Third Party ------ keep your own side from creating one. Assuming you was the Republicans to keep the Executive Branch. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2019, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/51 "2019-01-27T23:40:53Z")
**What does the GOP do about 2020?** They renominate Trump, energize his base and hope the Democrats still can’t get their shit together. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/52 "2019-01-28T00:12:58Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Independents don’t matter. They are right-wingers who are picky about who represents them. They clutch their pearls about the horrors of right-wing extremism, but won’t vote for the viable party who opposes that extremism (Democrats). Not recently. > **[NBC News Exit Poll: For first time since 2008, independent voters break for...](https://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-news-exit-poll-first-time-2008-independent-voters-break-n932926)** > > Should the Democratic Party capture the House of Representatives in today’s midterm elections, they’ll have independent voters to thank. ---
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/53 "2019-01-28T00:19:22Z")
> [@kopek](#): > > For the most part, at least in my memory, Democrats just won’t run as a Third Party or mount any kind of splinter campaign. Bernie proved that all too well last time around. It is far more likely that if we see a “also run” it will come from the Republican side from their moderates who accept/feel that our current POTUS never really was part of “their” party as they see it. Their best/secret hope is that we end up with someone as bat-shit-crazy-far-Left as possible and right now I can’t even come up with a name other than -------- well, you gotta admit; Nancy is a little extreme sometimes. But I think you have to go far further and nuttier than even her. > > In other words; forget the Democrats spurring a Third Party ------ keep your own side from creating one. Assuming you was the Republicans to keep the Executive Branch. Nancy Pelosi, extreme? She’s considered barely a Democratic in California. She has consistently been quite conservative for her constituency. You’re pulling that Overton window WAY to the right to get Pelosi to “extreme”. ---
**Author:** ![Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mundane_super_hero/32/6304_2.png) [@Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mundane_Super_Hero)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/54 "2019-01-28T01:07:43Z")
Run town-hall meetings on ‘visitors day’? ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/55 "2019-01-28T01:42:35Z")
> [@kopek](#): > > For the most part, at least in my memory, Democrats just won’t run as a Third Party or mount any kind of splinter campaign. How quickly Ralph Nader is forgotten. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/56 "2019-01-28T01:58:38Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This myth should be long dead. It was about culture (largely race and ethnicity), not the economy. Nate Silver has shown this definitively. Trump supporters weren’t poorer than non-Trump-voters. They had more “cultural anxiety” (racism and bigotry). I really think you’re reading that data wrong. ‘Cultural Anxiety’ means more than racism. Racism and xenophobia stem from economic anxiety. Hell, 538 itself - which you cite without citing - disagrees with your thesis… > [@](#): > > Economic hardship doesn’t explain Trump’s support. In fact, quite the opposite: Clinton easily won most low-income areas. But anxiety is a different story. Trump, as FiveThirtyEight contributor Jed Kolko noted immediately after the election, won most counties — and improved on Romney’s performance — where a large share of jobs are vulnerable to outsourcing or automation. > **[Stop Saying Trump’s Win Had Nothing To Do With Economics](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-saying-trumps-win-had-nothing-to-do-with-economics/)** > > This is In Real Terms, a regular column analyzing the latest economic news. Comments? Criticisms? Ideas for future columns? Email me, or drop a note in the comm… > [@](#): > > According to my own analysis of voting data, for example, the slower a county’s job growth has been since 2007, the more it shifted toward Trump.1 (The same is true looking back to 2000.) And of course Trump performed especially strongly among voters without a college degree — an important indicator of social status but also of economic prospects, given the shrinking share of jobs (and especially well-paying jobs) available to workers without a bachelor’s degree. We need to stop attributing things to racism and start attributing them to the thing that drives racism: fear. Pointing and saying, ‘racism’, is easy and it allows you to place people in a category of ‘other’ whereas assigning motivating to ‘fear’ allows for a more nuanced approach to a problem and one that calls for a starting point of empathy to allow a starting point to address the underlying issues at work. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/57 "2019-01-28T02:00:21Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > **What does the GOP do about 2020?** > > They renominate Trump, energize his base and hope the Democrats still can’t get their shit together. Honestly, that’s probably their best answer. He’s the bull in their china shop. They have to deal with him as it is. Hell, maybe he ekes out another win. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/58 "2019-01-28T02:04:57Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, at the end, 538 was giving Trump a 30% chance of winning. > > That’s not the sort of risk you mentally round down to zero. That’s what really drives me bananas about this sort of discussion. 30%. Things with a 30% probability happen all the fucking time. Every time I roll a six-sided die and it comes up 1 it’s a more unlikely outcome than Trump winning in 2016. Every time someone plays Rock-Scissors-Paper and chooses Rock their odds of winning are about the same as Trump’s were. People need to understand polling and math better. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/59 "2019-01-28T04:18:06Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, at the end, 538 was giving Trump a 30% chance of winning. > > That’s not the sort of risk you mentally round down to zero. Sure, which is why I used the term 'pointed to", instead of “a sure thing”. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2019, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476/60 "2019-01-28T10:38:48Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I really think you’re reading that data wrong. ‘Cultural Anxiety’ means more than racism. Racism and xenophobia stem from economic anxiety. I don’t buy the 2nd part, at least not as a comprehensive explanation. Slavery and Jim Crow didn’t “stem from economic anxiety”. Neither did the near-genocide of Native Americans. > [@](#): > > Hell, 538 itself - which you cite without citing - disagrees with your thesis… > > [Stop Saying Trump’s Win Had Nothing To Do With Economics | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stop-saying-trumps-win-had-nothing-to-do-with-economics/) > > We need to stop attributing things to racism and start attributing them to the thing that drives racism: fear. Pointing and saying, ‘racism’, is easy and it allows you to place people in a category of ‘other’ whereas assigning motivating to ‘fear’ allows for a more nuanced approach to a problem and one that calls for a starting point of empathy to allow a starting point to address the underlying issues at work. Okay, perhaps I was a bit too definitive. But it was mostly due to racism and related phenomena: [https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703975062500732932](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703975062500732932) Trump became the Republican front-runner because of racism (for the most part). He rose to political prominence due to birtherism. That gave him a big chunk at the beginning of the primary. He won the Republican primary because of more racism – the wall and denigrating immigrants. It was racism and related bigotries, for the most part. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-does-the-gop-do-about-2020/828476.md?page=4)