# What exactly will happen when we leave Iraq, and why is it not as bad as staying? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 30, 2007, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745 "2007-07-30T23:41:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/61 "2007-08-02T23:04:37Z")
Having no running water isn’t exactly the same thing has having NO water…which was the point I was making. If there is NO water in Baghdad then pretty much the city will be full of corpses by this time next week. I’m not trying to make it sound like this isn’t a dire problem…just pointing out they exaggerations. -XT ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/62 "2007-08-02T23:16:03Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Having no running water isn’t exactly the same thing has having NO water…which was the point I was making. If there is NO water in Baghdad then pretty much the city will be full of corpses by this time next week. I’m not trying to make it sound like this isn’t a dire problem…just pointing out they exaggerations [/QUOTE] Iraq’s a failed state under US occupation, in fact the second worst in the world – a statement of fact. Please point out the exaggerations in said sentence. Any takers? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/63 "2007-08-02T23:24:08Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Iraq’s a failed state under US occupation, in fact the second worst in the world – a statement of fact. [/QUOTE] Well, the ‘failed state’ part is an exaggeration…so far. Its a FAILING state, not a FAILED state. ‘second worst in the world’ what? Second worst state in the world? Sure, thats an exaggeration (if thats what you meant). North Korea is in a LOT worse shape. There are several African states that are in as bad or worst shape, and maybe one or two in Central America. So pretty much the whole thing is an exaggeration. And to what point? Why not just say that Iraq is fucked up and in bad shape? You don’t NEED to exaggerate how bad it is…just like you don’t NEED to use stupid and explosive labels like ‘genocide’ to describe the US occupation. The reality is bad enough. But you never seem to get that your hyperbolic language actually does more harm than good to your own side in these debates. -XT ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2007, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/64 "2007-08-02T23:33:45Z")
Yeah, that becomes pretty obvious from the rush of people stampeding to embrace your positions. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/65 "2007-08-03T00:12:11Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Well, the ‘failed state’ part is an exaggeration…so far. Its a FAILING state, not a FAILED state. ‘second worst in the world’ what? Second worst state in the world? Sure, thats an exaggeration (if thats what you meant). North Korea is in a LOT worse shape. There are several African states that are in as bad or worst shape, and maybe one or two in Central America. So pretty much the whole thing is an exaggeration. And to what point? Why not just say that Iraq is fucked up and in bad shape? You don’t NEED to exaggerate how bad it is…just like you don’t NEED to use stupid and explosive labels like ‘genocide’ to describe the US occupation. The reality is bad enough. But you never seem to get that your hyperbolic language actually does more harm than good to your own side in these debates. -XT [/QUOTE] “Exaggerate” this: [**Iraq second on ‘failed state’ index**](http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/iraq-second-on-failed-state-index/2007/06/19/1182019116066.html) Not for nothing, **XT** , but if you want to keep debating in GD, it might do you well to keep-up with current events. Certainly helps when trying to back statements of fact. And sorry, your whole “I hate Spain” shtick is not gonna help you outta of this one. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/66 "2007-08-03T00:12:27Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] There is NO water? Thats not a slight exaggeration, is it? Because if there is NO water then everyone in the city will be dead within the week…10 days tops. Are you sure of that? [/QUOTE] Well there is the Tigris rivers, various small branches, filthy puddles of water, etc. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/67 "2007-08-03T00:20:28Z")
PS-Original source: [**The Failed States Index 2007**](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865&page=7) Pinko commies no doubt. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2007, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/68 "2007-08-03T00:31:20Z")
Say **'luc** , lay-off **XT** , would ya? I mean you lefties are all the same, hammer the undecided, kill your opponents and bicker amongst yourselves. 😉 Fuck. I hate smilies. But just in case you still don’t know me well enough. Though I very much doubt it what with all the years we’ve been compañeros . Open book here – albeit with what? 20% of the pages as yours. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2007, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/69 "2007-08-04T22:10:50Z")
[Iraq power grid said to be near collapse](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070804/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq;_ylt=Aij8nKWymaajxCgr_SB0t2UE1vAI) > [@](#): > > Iraq’s power grid is on the brink of collapse because of insurgent sabotage of infrastructure, rising demand, fuel shortages and provinces that are unplugging local power stations from the national grid, officials said Saturday. > > Electricity Ministry spokesman Aziz al-Shimari said power generation nationally is only meeting half the demand, and there had been four nationwide blackouts over the past two days. The shortages across the country are the worst since the summer of 2003, shortly after the U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, he said. > > … > > “We no longer need television documentaries about the Stone Age. We are actually living in it. We are in constant danger because of the filthy water and rotten food we are having,” said Hazim Obeid, who sells clothing at a stall in the Karbala market. The distinction between having no water or electricity, and having little water or electricity, is irrelevant. There is not enough of either to support the democratic society Bush is insisting on before he will withdraw. At some point, the people of Iraq will be hungry enough or thirsty enough or scared enough to abandon any illusion of democracy and beg for someone like Saddam to take control. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2007, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/70 "2007-08-05T01:08:23Z")
What will happen when we leave Iraq? Most likely continued turmoil. That’s the only prediction that has been borne out so far. I don’t think that the big domes have any more clue as to what will happen than do you and I. They haven’t done too well so far. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/71 "2007-08-07T18:07:59Z")
[As the British pull out of Basra, three Shi’ite factions fall to fighting each other.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/06/AR2007080601401.html?hpid=topnews) What we’re looking at here is going to be a Lebanon the size of California. Inevitably. ---
**Author:** ![plnnr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7ea924/32.png) [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2007, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/72 "2007-08-07T18:53:02Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Well, the ‘failed state’ part is an exaggeration…so far. Its a FAILING state, not a FAILED state. -XT [/QUOTE] I think I can comfortably say that any state that cannot provide for its own defense, or supply adequate food, water, electricity, education, shelter, security or anything else except sand for its residents is a failed state. That we “helped” it fail is not beside the point. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/73 "2007-08-08T01:53:38Z")
It does appear to me that the outcome will be a Shia run theocracy with close ties to Iran. Are we helping or harming by staying? We are starting to remind me of a deadly serious version of the dinner guest who makes a verbal gaffe and then just makes things worse by babbling on in an effort to cover it up. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/74 "2007-08-08T03:21:14Z")
[QUOTE=David Simmons] It does appear to me that the outcome will be a Shia run theocracy with close ties to Iran. [/QUOTE] No, that’s a best-case scenario. It assumes the Shi’ites can get along with each other, which apparently they can’t. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2007, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745/75 "2007-08-08T16:06:00Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] No, that’s a best-case scenario. It assumes the Shi’ites can get along with each other, which apparently they can’t. [/QUOTE] True enough but I suspect the group that emerges as the controllers will be Shia. The shakeout might take a couple or three years and in any case almost certainly won’t be the one we aimed for. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-exactly-will-happen-when-we-leave-iraq-and-why-is-it-not-as-bad-as-staying/413745.md?page=3)