# What fraction of Texas windturbines were frozen? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 19, 2021, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267 "2021-02-19T04:21:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/1 "2021-02-19T04:21:40Z")
Question in the subject line. I’ve heard that it was actually a fairly small percentage, but can’t find specific numbers by googling. [Note: I know that the main cause of the power outage in Texas was fossil fuel power plants going off line and not windturbines freezing. Let’s not argue about that. (Vainly hoping to forestall that argument.)] ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/2 "2021-02-19T05:57:37Z")
Here’s a BBC article on it: le > **[Texas weather: Are frozen wind turbines to blame for power cuts?](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-56085733)** > > Frozen wind turbines are being blamed for power failures - but problems with fossils fuels are a bigger issue. > [@](#): > > Wind turbines froze, as well as vital equipment at gas wells and in the nuclear industry. > > But because gas and other non-renewable energies contribute far more to the grid than wind power, particularly in winter, these shortages had a far greater impact on the system. > > So when critics pointed to a loss of nearly half of Texas’s wind-energy capacity as a result of frozen turbines, they failed to point out double that amount was being lost from gas and other non-renewable supplies such as coal and nuclear. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/3 "2021-02-19T06:25:15Z")
“Nearly half” is not exactly what I want. I’m looking for actual numbers. Or at least a more exact percentage. Wikipedia says there are about 10,700 wind turbines in Texas. How many were out because they were frozen? ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/4 "2021-02-19T08:37:09Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Here’s a BBC article on it: le Pretty much what I’d expect the BBC to say when talking about Wind Turbines: the BBC fails to point out that while 20% of the oil and gas went offline, for wind turbines it was 50%. In the nature of business, those suppliers won’t be releasing data unless compelled to do so. Their contracts may compel them to do so, and there may be data in their stock market reports, but I’m not a aware of any general real-time reporting for Texas. Texas is pretty hard-core on avoiding regulation and oversite, and for some reason I’m unable to access any of the ERCOT documents. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/5 "2021-02-19T08:45:46Z")
The Times today said that they expected about 7% of their power to come from wind turbines - lower than capacity during the summer. So that would mean the capacity was reduced by about 3.5%. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/6 "2021-02-19T09:57:59Z")
I don’t know the data, but to calculate the percentage correctly I would think you need to know the percentage of the total electricity generated with wind, gas, coal, water and nuclear (and other, if applicable) first by capacity and then compare that with the real data of a given day. If wind generation has the capacity to cover 10% of the consumption on a given day if all works well (and that consumption will not be the same in winter and in summer) but can only cover 7% because of problems the moment you are interested in, then I would not say that wind is reduced by 3% (from 10% to 7% of the total), but by 30% of its capacity. And even that would be a very crude calculation. You should also take into account spare and reserve capacities and how much of those there _should_ be (or rather, have been) by law and why that reserve was not there. The potential for manipulating the data is enormous. There are civil, penal and political liability issues and everybody will try to cover their asses. ---
**Author:** ![BwanaBob](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bwanabob/32/2985_2.png) [@BwanaBob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BwanaBob)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/7 "2021-02-19T13:09:48Z")
The cheap idiots didn’t buy the “winterize” upgrade for the windturbines. WHat a shock. They froze in extremely cold weather. Like putting the wrong oil in your car. Don’t blame the car when it doesn’t start. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/8 "2021-02-19T13:17:15Z")
I’ve been looking at various numbers on the ERCOT website this week, but while I’ve seen capacity versus available, I haven’t seen anything remotely like that statistic. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/9 "2021-02-19T13:36:02Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Question in the subject line. I’ve heard that it was actually a fairly small percentage, but can’t find specific numbers by googling I have worked in the power industry, live near Houston and am suffering through all this. IMO - you will not get the statistics you seek. At least for another year or so. There will be a lot of finger pointing but not real Data. The power generation companies will blame the wind turbine manufacturers, the turbine manufacturers will blame the companies for not winterizing or blame utilities not supplied by the turbine companies,…,; There won’t be someone to fully blame or sue. Here in Houston, in the last few years, we’ve had a Flood that was a 100 year high. Now we’ve had a 100 year freeze event. (The 100 year is a rough approximation ) People will say things but the truth is that no one prepares for 100 year events and global warming (my opinion) will increase the likelihood of infrequent weather events. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/10 "2021-02-19T15:14:10Z")
The Saskatchean Crown corporation responsible for power generation has been sending electricity south to Texas to assist: > **[SaskPower sending electricity to southern parts of United States amid storm ...](https://globalnews.ca/news/7645562/saskpower-energy-us-snow-storm/)** > > SaskPower is currently exporting 175 megawatts of electricity to the United States as a winter storm is leaving millions of Americans without power. > [@](#): > > “In Saskatchewan, we know first-hand the challenges posed by extreme winter weather, and being part of an integrated grid means that when called upon, we help each other out,” said Kory Hayko, SaskPower’s vice-president of transmission and industrial services and NorthPoint Energy Solutions’ president and CEO. > > “We have been able to help our neighbours in their time of need, while maintaining the stability of our grid and delivering reliable power to our customers.” > > SaskPower started moving 150 MW of electricity on Sunday, but has since increased that amount to 175 MW. > > “The company will continue to offer all the support it can for as long as possible,” SaskPower said in a press release issued Tuesday. > > “SaskPower has successfully managed higher-than-normal peak loads during the past 10 days as Saskatchewan has experienced extreme cold conditions associated with a polar vortex.” > > The electricity is being fed through an [intertie](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/intertie) into the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which is currently under emergency operation conditions. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/11 "2021-02-19T16:15:24Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > The Saskatchean Crown corporation responsible for power generation has been sending electricity south to Texas to assist: Can that power actually get to Texas? I thought the ERCOT grid had no interties to the rest of the continent. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/12 "2021-02-19T16:39:35Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Can that power actually get to Texas? I was wondering the same thing. “Southwestern United States” does not necessarily include Texas. ---
**Author:** ![txtumbleweed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/278dde/32.png) [@txtumbleweed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/txtumbleweed)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/13 "2021-02-19T19:47:14Z")
The US Energy Information site has some great numbers and charts that show what being generated those nights. We first hit 0F the night of 2/14-15 and it is pretty clear in the chart below when everything went to hell in a handbasket. Wind was producing a peak of 9101MW at 4pm on 2/14 and that had fallen to just 649MW by 8pm on the 15th so that’s what, (caution, liberal arts major attempting math) roughly 93% of the turbines dropping off-line? However, up until the grid collapsed, wind was generating a pretty consistent share of the available electric. While that power would have been nice, wind alone was not going to meet demand that night as temps went to zero and every heating element from Amarillo to Brownsville went active. I’ve heard a couple things, one culprit being that natural gas is pumped directly from the well-head to the pipeline to the generators. If I understand, in transit NG usually has a pretty high moisture content and at the temps we had that night the moisture was freezing up those pipelines and knocking out the NG supply. Plus, residential units get first call on NG over generators as the danger of losing NG service to a home (are you sure all those pilot lights in 30% of homes will relight if you cut off gas?) outweighs the generator need. One engineer I saw put it pretty well, it’s hard to stress test for cold weather in Texas, so you don’t know if winterizing worked until an event like this. Hopefully the engineers will learn their lessons and fix it in time for the next event like this. I don’t live here because I am fond of being cold. > **[Real-time Operating Grid - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/)** > > Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government [![](https://i.postimg.cc/vZ80mVQm/Energy-Sources.png) ](https://i.postimg.cc/vZ80mVQm/Energy-Sources.png) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/14 "2021-02-19T20:00:33Z")
> [@txtumbleweed](#): > > Wind was producing a peak of 9101MW at 4pm on 2/14 and that had fallen to just 649MW by 8pm on the 15th so that’s what, (caution, liberal arts major attempting math) roughly 93% of the turbines dropping off-line? Yes, but you can’t assume that percentage of turbines dropped out because they froze. The wind could have decreased in various parts of Texas. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/15 "2021-02-19T20:12:06Z")
Also, when parts of the transmission & distribution grid have problems, some generation sources will themselves go offline to prevent overloads or wide oscillations. So it would be a combination of “frozen” plus wind fluctuations plus units “safed” out or just not contributing because their transmission link was down. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/16 "2021-02-19T20:14:29Z")
> [@txtumbleweed](#): > > One engineer I saw put it pretty well, it’s hard to stress test for cold weather in Texas, so you don’t know if winterizing worked until an event like this. You do know if winterizing worked if you didn’t do it. Things that are’t done never work. ---
**Author:** ![txtumbleweed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/278dde/32.png) [@txtumbleweed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/txtumbleweed)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/17 "2021-02-19T20:19:14Z")
Agreed. And the wind turbines don’t appear to have dropped offline until well after the grid began to collapse. The discussion of what happened should focus on on what triggered that cliff on the 15th where about 10000mwh of NG went off-line all at once. At 0200 2/15: Wind – 5350 NG - 42372 An hour later, at 0300 Wind – 5154 NG – 33096 ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/18 "2021-02-19T20:22:19Z")
Yeah. I understand **txtumbleweed’s** point, but it reminds me of Hurricane Katrina, and how the Dutch came in to help us understand water management. We don’t need to test winterization methods in Midland, Texas if they’re already successfully winterizing the same turbine (and other) generation equipment in Manitoba. Wheel = invented. “American Exceptionalism,” writ large, is the assumption that We Do It Better Than Anybody Else Anywhere Else On The Planet (also see: abject and willful ignorance). Texas, stereotypically, is American Exceptionalism on steroids. Can you imagine them caring how some socialists in Kah-na-Duh do it ? Exceptionalists dismiss best practices. Instead, they cite the world’s _worst_ practices as axiomatic evidence of our exceptionalism (“sneak into Saudi Arabia illegally and see how _they_ treat you”). And couldn’t this be part of the problem (he asks rhetorically) ? ---
**Author:** ![abcdefghij](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/43a26b/32.png) [@abcdefghij](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abcdefghij)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/19 "2021-02-19T20:22:49Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Can that power actually get to Texas? I thought the ERCOT grid had no interties to the rest of the continent. What’s the breakdown voltage of the Red River? ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2021, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267/20 "2021-02-19T22:12:27Z")
> [@JRDelirious](#): > > Also, when parts of the transmission & distribution grid have problems, some generation sources will themselves go offline to prevent overloads or wide oscillations. This was part of the recent major outage in (the state called) South Australia. The wind system was configured to expect all the system stability to be provided by the coal/gas generators. But since the coal/gas generation had been replaced by wind, there wasn’t as much system stability as the wind systems had been configured for. The wind systems interpreted a dip as a major failure – and just switched off. This was sort of understandable in SA 3 years ago – it represented poor planning for a predictable event. If Texas didn’t check their configuration after the SA event, then that’s not just poor planning – it’s negligence. At some stage it’s not poor planning, it’s an unavoidable ‘act of God’, but if, as suggested, the wind system just started shutting down – well, if that’s not poor planning it’s poor capital investment. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-fraction-of-texas-windturbines-were-frozen/933267.md?page=2)