# What Happens If Assad (Syria) Falls? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 9, 2015, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661 "2015-05-09T23:13:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/21 "2015-05-10T16:55:48Z")
In fact, one scenario is that the Iranians double down and send ground troops to support the advisers already working in Syria. If that happens, all bets are off. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/22 "2015-05-10T17:11:17Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > That is an outdated way of thinking of “western”, during the cold war you had Communism (East) vs Capitalism (West), now things are not so simple but secularism is certainly more western than religious fundamentalism. considering that “religious fundamentalism” also was created in “the West” it’s quite odd that you think that somehow religious fundamentalism is alien to the west. I’m also not sure why you think it’s “outdated” since both China and Cuba, both of which are “secular” are not considered “western”. FWIW, while I do use terms like “the West” I do agree that it’s a bit of a vague term that really ought to be discarded if for no other reason than people can’t seem to agree on what it is. I’m also a bit amused to think that people are trying to compare the fight between “communism and capitalism” to “secularism and religious fundamentalism” since you’ll regularly see groups representing each side linking up and fighting other pairings of the two. You could make a much, much stronger argument that Saudi Arabia is run by a “western oriented despot” than you could Syria. I’m also chuckling at the idea that Assad, who governs a country who’s constitution declares that “all laws herein are inspired by the Holy Quran” and where by law the President must be “a believing Muslim” and who’s a close ally of Iran is considered a proponent of secularism and staunch opponent of religious fundamentalism. The Middle East is not nearly as simple as we’d all like to think. FWIW, I’ll agree with those who think it’s naive to think we know what will happen if Assad falls. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/23 "2015-05-10T17:14:54Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I think Syria will wind up like Iraq-in a state of continual civil war. Why do you think Iraq will remain with continual civil war? I think Iraq will partition into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish countries (with the Sunni part may well including massive parts of Syria (the Islamic State)) and there will be massive population flight as people move to their ethnic areas. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/24 "2015-05-10T17:55:05Z")
> [@eenerms](#): > > It will be Libya two. Only with more factions and greater population density. And more poverty! ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/25 "2015-05-10T19:42:11Z")
> [@Miller](#): > > He’s paid at least minimal attention to what’s been happening in the region over the last hundred years? “Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings.” There are dozens of ways in which Assad might fall, and a good half a dozen foes who might supplant him. Israel might get involved – the 800 pound gorilla next door – or they might not. The U.S. might get involved – the 18000 tyrannosaur a little farther away – or they might not. What will Russia do if Assad starts to topple? No one can predict these things. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2015, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/26 "2015-05-10T19:50:55Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > No one can predict these things. I agree. Good analysis can give you some idea of the forces at play. Just because something is more likely doesn’t mean it plays out that way in the chaos though. It’s especially hard to figure out the international byplay of major powers that have motivations in Syria. Does something in the Pacific affect the Russia-US balance and thus indirectly affect Syria… hard to say. The Taliban wouldn’t have been a front runner to control most of Afghanistan when the Soviets withdrew. Later they were soundly defeated by Massoud’s forces and possibly out of the conversation. Like someone turned into a newt, with outside support, they “got better.” ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/27 "2015-05-11T17:22:53Z")
Assad is a smaller version of Saddam Hussein. I think the real question is: how long can he fund his army? I assume his soldiers are almost mercenary, and would turn on him, if they don’t get paid. Syria has almost no foreign trade, so unless his friends (Iran, Russia) send him some cash, it is hard to see how he can survive. No doubt he has prepared for exile-I’m sure he doesn’t want to suffer the same fate as Kaddafi or Hussein. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/28 "2015-05-11T17:58:46Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > The Islamic State will take over the vast majority of the country: the predominently Sunni areas. Doubtful. We have little reason to think anyone, Sunni or not, in areas ISIS does not now control wants them to come in. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/29 "2015-05-11T18:26:58Z")
Yeah but how organised would they be in the face of such an onslaught? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/30 "2015-05-11T22:20:59Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > FWIW, I’ll agree with those who think it’s naive to think we know what will happen if Assad falls. Yes, except “peace spontaneously breaks out” is not going to be on the table. So if the options given by the OP are “peace” or “war”, I think I can confidently predict “war”. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/31 "2015-05-11T23:05:24Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > One article I read pointed out that the US has learned that helping radical Muslims has a way of biting the helper in the rear end. I don’t think that Turkey has learned that lesson yet. Turkey is in a position where the civil war status quo is already biting them in the rear end to the tune of [UNHCR estimating](http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e48e0fa7f.html) 1.7million Syrian refugees there by the end of this year. That’s a touch over 2% of their population. As a bordering country and regional power they also need to consider long term risks to their interests. Whether it’s effects on their internal Kurdish insurgency, allowing other regional powers to drive things in ways that affect the regional interests, or concern about someone like ISIS winning and sharing the border there’s risk. The teeth are already gnawing on Turkey and likely will keep doing so no matter what they do. Figuring out how to limit the chunk they lose to it is damn tough. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/32 "2015-05-11T23:08:18Z")
It’ll probably end up like Lybia or Egypt: some western backed strongman tries to bring the country together through religious unity while doing questionable human rights violation-y things, but not as overt and severe as Assad. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/33 "2015-05-12T02:04:40Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > You are assuming very wrongly. Stop basing your posts on your own assumptions. I was giving you the benefit of the doubt. If you read the OP and think that no one knows whether we’ll have peace or war if Assad steps down, then I don’t really know what to say. I’d love to hear you make the case for peace, if you really think it’s a distinct possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/34 "2015-05-12T02:13:08Z")
To imagine that peace or war are the only possibilities is wrong: there’s a huge spectrum in between. Shaky cease-fires, long term truces, small patterns of fighting without a large-scale engagement, and so on. To say “peace or war, and nothing in between” excludes a huge chunk of middle. We have no way of knowing the extent of fighting, or its duration. Peace is, of course, always a possibility, even if staggeringly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661/35 "2015-05-12T02:21:57Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > To imagine that peace or war are the only possibilities is wrong: there’s a huge spectrum in between. Shaky cease-fires, long term truces, small patterns of fighting without a large-scale engagement, and so on. To say “peace or war, and nothing in between” excludes a huge chunk of middle. Take that up with the OP: > [@OP](#): > > Suppose we read (one morning) that Assad has flown off to Switzerland)-would peace break out or more bloody war? > [@](#): > > We have no way of knowing the extent of fighting, or its duration. Peace is, of course, always a possibility, even if staggeringly unlikely. I’m happy to go on record that peace is so unlikely that the the odds are essentially zero. There has never in the history of mankind been a situation like this where peace broke out after a dictator stepped down during a raging ciivil war. There is nothing to indicate that the various sides would reconcile. But yeah, we have a way of knowing. There are more sides to this Civil War than you can shake a stick at. If Assad flies off to Switzerland, the bloody civil war will continue. Assad is only one player in a multi-sided civil war. The other sides have no reason to cooperate or give in. No outside power is going to come in and quell the civil war unless there is a massive invasion that is upheld of an extended period of time. And there is no indication any power is going to do that. So, we have a civil war with or without Assad. We may not know what flavor of war, but war it will be. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-assad-syria-falls/719661.md?page=1)