# What happens if Trump drops out for medical reasons? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 2, 2020, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017 "2020-10-02T07:27:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/1 "2020-10-02T07:27:12Z")
1. Does Pence automatically become the GOP Presidential nominee? 2. How would Pence do against Biden? 3. Miss you, Jenny. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/2 "2020-10-02T09:52:20Z")
All unknown. This has never really happened before. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/3 "2020-10-02T10:12:16Z")
Keep in mind, for Senate and House elections [dead people _have_ won elections.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/01/five-people-have-won-election-to-congress-despite-being-dead/) Since the deceased can not function in Congress (despite some truly decrepit specimens no one seated in Congress has actually been _dead_, just one foot in the grave. We won’t see that until the December Zombie Apocalypse scheduled for the end of 2020) state governors appoint the replacement. However, this situation is unprecedented for a presidential election. There is a defined line of succession for the seated president which may or may not be useful, but it says nothing about _candidates_ for the job. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/4 "2020-10-02T17:45:01Z")
I don’t think that Trump can drop out at this point. His name is already on the ballot in most states and in states that allow early mail-in voting, people have already voted for him. There’s no way for those voters to be able to retrieve and redo their votes, and as far as I understand Bush vs Gore, that would preclude a change in ballot. If Trump simply said “I’m too sick, I’m quitting, Pence is the presidential candidate now”, and Trump/Pence somehow won, then my guess is that the Electoral College would choose Pence as president. Technically, it’s the electors who are elected, not the president. Some state laws might interfere with that, but I’m guessing that those laws could be overridden. Regarding your second question, in a national presidential election as a straight up contest between Pence and Biden, I think Pence would win, but would really depend on how well he presented himself. I think solid Republican with socially conservative values still carries a lot of weight with mainstream voters, and Biden’s not an inspiring candidate. But if Pence came across as a Tea Party candidate, I think he’d lose badly. However, the hypothetical isn’t about a straight up contest, it’s about a sudden change in candidate. Pence would start way behind and have no chance to catch up. If Trump dies from catching the coronavirus? I think that gives Pence a better chance as he would gain some sympathy and disruptive voters. But again, he’d be way behind in public awareness as a candidate and I don’t think he could overcome that gap versus Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/5 "2020-10-02T17:47:37Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > If Trump simply said “I’m too sick, I’m quitting, Pence is the presidential candidate now…” But is it Trump that gets to make that decision in the first place? I can think of several high-ranking Republicans that would love to jump into that political hole if given a ghost of a chance. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/6 "2020-10-02T21:08:58Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > But is it Trump that gets to make that decision in the first place? I can think of several high-ranking Republicans that would love to jump into that political hole if given a ghost of a chance. The Electors make the decision and I think if Trump said this was my guy, those Electors would follow Trump’s wishes. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/7 "2020-10-02T21:50:01Z")
This question has been asked in more than one thread. Basically the RNC will choose a new candidate and the electors, being party hacks, will go along with that. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/8 "2020-10-02T21:52:13Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > This question has been asked in more than one thread But the second part, as to how Pence would do if inserted at this late date, hasn’t really been. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/9 "2020-10-02T22:47:42Z")
For the statement? Trump can declare whoever he wants his replacement to be. For the Republican Party endorsement? They could go for whoever they thought would be most electable. And sure, that might involve a bit of intramural competition for who that person is. But they’d be conducting their internal squabble against a hard deadline, and facing an even worse voter recognition premise than if Pence was the candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/10 "2020-10-03T20:39:22Z")
Put your tin foil hats on for this one . . . What if this new COVID development is Trump’s way of bowing out, by making it look like his hand was “forced.” I wonder if this is his method of “showboating” towards martyrdom. He always _does_ have to be the center of attention. I can’t think of anything better for his “legacy” than being “brought down by the ‘China virus\*’”. \*Note: his words. Tin foil hat over. Tripler Honest question. ---
**Author:** ![Katriona](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/katriona/32/113_2.png) [@Katriona](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Katriona)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2020, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/11 "2020-10-03T20:53:06Z")
Would the RNC have something in place for this? IIRC, when a Missouri candidate was killed in a plane crash at a point where it was too late to change the ballots, the state Democratic apparatus selected the backup, so that even though you were voting on the dead man’s name, the vote went to the new candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/12 "2020-10-04T04:07:16Z")
Good article about possible problems with the 25th Amendment: [Trump’s health condition highlights gaps in the 25th Amendment - POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/trump-coronavirus-25-425871) “If Trump becomes incapacitated due to complications from the coronavirus, it could be for an unknown or an extended time period. And, should Vice President Mike Pence also fall ill, the 25th Amendment does not outline who is next in the chain of command. There is nothing in the law or the Constitution, moreover, that dictates who would actually decide to invoke the Presidential Succession Act if both the president and vice president become incapacitated, said Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. That could theoretically lead to a fight among those in the line of succession. Even if Pence were able to take over from Trump, the Constitution requires a “cumbersome process” to authorize it, Ornstein said. Notably, that process would require a two-thirds vote from Congress, who may be unavailable to return for such a vote in the middle of a pandemic. Whereas the House has authorized remote voting by proxy, the Senate has not.” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/13 "2020-10-04T05:21:32Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > If Trump simply said “I’m too sick, I’m quitting, Pence is the presidential candidate now”, and Trump/Pence somehow won, then my guess is that the Electoral College would choose Pence as president. Technically, it’s the electors who are elected, not the president. Some state laws might interfere with that, but I’m guessing that those laws could be overridden. Yes, the laws can be rewritten. But the question is whether a law can change the way an election is run after people have cast their votes (which many people have already done by mail). There are people who cast votes for Trump and I question the legality of telling them that those votes will now be counted for Pence. If that’s legally possible, what stops you from passing a law that says ballots cast for Trump will be redirected as votes for Biden? Another complication is that Pence is already on the ballot as a Vice Presidential candidate. Are the Republicans supposed to also name a new VP candidate or is Pence supposed to be running for both offices? Would Pence drop out of the VP spot without knowing if he will have enough votes to get elected President? Legally, electors can’t cast votes for Pence for both positions. What happens if he gets more votes for Vice President than for President (which could happen with the votes being cast for Trump). Are the electors supposed to ignore the greater number of votes and vote for Pence as President? Thirty three states have laws against electors being faithless. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/14 "2020-10-04T05:23:47Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > What if this new COVID development is Trump’s way of bowing out, by making it look like his hand was “forced.” I wonder if this is his method of “showboating” towards martyrdom. He always _does_ have to be the center of attention. I can’t think of anything better for his “legacy” than being “brought down by the ‘China virus\*’”. There is zero evidence that Trump has any desire to bow out. He’s already openly talking about a third term. ---
**Author:** ![Wrenching\_Spanners](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ecb155/32.png) [@Wrenching\_Spanners](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wrenching_Spanners)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/15 "2020-10-04T11:00:42Z")
In my opinion, Trump would have to stay on the ballot, in the same way that several non-presidential election candidates have stayed on the ballot despite dying prior to the election. The question is what would happen after a Trump/Pence ticket won, assuming Trump insisted he would not be president. Would the members of the Electoral College elect him anyway, or could they elect Pence instead? And what would happen if Electoral College voters who were lawfully required to vote for Trump, voted for Pence anyway? I’m speculating the Supreme Court would rule they had a constitutional right to pick Pence, the candidate who was running for President after Trump dropped out. But that’s only speculation about a very fanciful situation. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/16 "2020-10-04T11:33:06Z")
> [@Wrenching\_Spanners](#): > > If Trump dies from catching the coronavirus? I think that gives Pence a better chance as he would gain some sympathy and disruptive voters. But again, he’d be way behind in public awareness as a candidate and I don’t think he could overcome that gap versus Biden. I think it’s more than just public awareness. The president dying by _Hoistem onus petardus_ is not something easily deflected or forgotten. Informed voters will be aware that it was not just Trump to blame for the recent fuckups, but a complicit party. Less informed voters will just perceive the whole party as tainted by association. Either way, Trump’s death would be a constant reminder. As I said in one of the other threads, in a straight vote in these circumstances, I think Pence would be defeated handily. But if, for whatever reason, there’s chaos at the ballots; some combination of mail votes being “lost”, ballot stations being “guarded” or just violence on the streets, then all bets are off. This is always true of course, but might actually be tested in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/17 "2020-10-04T14:33:16Z")
Granted; talk is one thing, doing is another. From my recollection in growing up around NYC, he has _exactly_ that quality in particular. Tripler After consideration, I consider his ‘talk’ a smokescreen to set up his kids to run. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2020, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/18 "2020-10-04T14:59:41Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > Granted; talk is one thing, doing is another. > > From my recollection in growing up around NYC, he has _exactly_ that quality in particular. I agree. Trump actually has surprisingly little agency; he’s almost a figurehead in his own presidency. He can bluster a lot but he doesn’t seem to really have any idea of how to get things done. In my opinion, Trump thinks that by putting out the idea of him having a third term, he can create a popular groundswell of support for the idea and then other people will do the work of making it happen. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/19 "2020-10-14T19:28:17Z")
Moderating: What is being debated here? It is really a GQ, although it has been answered, at least as much as it can be. Moving. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017/20 "2020-10-15T14:02:50Z")
I think we were debating the feasibility that a “dropout” due to medical reasons would just be a Shakespearean-Machiavellian-Tom Clancy plot/ploy set a sympathetic stage for his children to run for office. But the debate occurred over a week ago, so I think the topic kind of fell off our collective radars. Tripler I think the ‘debate’ is dead in the water. . . [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-happens-if-trump-drops-out-for-medical-reasons/922017.md?page=2)