# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2012, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/221 "2012-09-05T18:15:54Z")
\*\*OMG \*\*was relating an easily-cited truism. I don’t know why he had such a hard time turning up a recent cite - googling [“undecideds break for the challenger”](https://www.google.com/search?q=%22undecideds+break+for+the+challenger%22&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a) (in quotes) gives several recent assertions of it, and some data that seems to bear it out: [Incumbent Rule](http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm) [Do Undecideds Break for the Challenger?](http://polipundit.com/?p=40207)(spoiler: yes) [Undecideds go 80% for challenger in presidential elections](http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-cant-get-to-50/) Granted, there’s evidence (and coming from Nate Silver, it should be taken seriously) that the rule may no longer be true, if it ever was. But cites for the claim, from this cycle, are easy to come by. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2012, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/222 "2012-09-05T18:35:09Z")
> [@bup](#): > > \*\*OMG \*\*was relating an easily-cited truism. Truism has two meanings in modern usage. A self-evident truth and a trite saying that is meaningless at best and probably false. Which are you using? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/223 "2012-09-05T18:42:04Z")
A trite saying. I disagree that it has to be ‘meaningless at best and probably false.’ I meant it in the sense of ‘common wisdom’ - some of which is true, some of which isn’t, but is too easily accepted. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2012, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/224 "2012-09-05T20:58:06Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Perhaps, Rick. But McCain got a very nice bounce in 2008. As did Bush in 2004. The quality of the conventions (and the candidates) still matter. > > As to undecideds, IIRC the latest research indicates that it is very different for races with high name recognition like POTUS. I’ll try to find the cite tomorrow. It would really astonish me if the conventions were successful in changing anyone’s vote, but I’ll bet they’re successful in converting registered voters into likely voters, at least temporarily. Since September is traditionally when the polling firms convert to a likely voter model there’s usually a convention bounce. Probably less pronounced in the Republican’s case, mainly because they’re better at showing up for elections and are probably already likely voters. More of a bounce for the Democrats, because their constituents are less likely voters, and subject to fits of enthusiasm, but will that translate to votes on election day? Support a mile wide and an inch deep doesn’t get it done. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/225 "2012-09-05T21:11:04Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > It would really astonish me if the conventions were successful in changing anyone’s vote, but I’ll bet they’re successful in converting registered voters into likely voters, at least temporarily. I know it’s only anecdotal, but I know two personal friends that typically vote GOP that specifically called me to say there were voting for Obama after his 2008 convention speech. That’s not to say it’s common, but it does happen. There is a great mass of very, very low-information voters out there as well as tons that literally tune out everything political until right about now. Lots more eyeballs watch these conventions than any other political event, IIRC, particularly the big speeches. That’s why the bad TV ratings for the GOP event were such a bad sign. I believe the conventions also solidify “leaners”, which some polling firms push harder than others. A low-push poll might see a pretty big bounce as all of the “undecided, lean Romney” voters decide to start saying “Romney” or vice versa. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/226 "2012-09-09T04:00:18Z")
Nate Silver has been Tweeting a lot tonight. It sounds like he’s ready to call the election, if he did that sort of thing. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight 90% of the time, people overinterpret the movement in polls but I think the opposite is happening now. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Sometimes the election is won or lost at the conventions and this looks like it could be one of those years. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Also, it’s remarkable how unassertive GOP has been on foreign policy & social policy. Economy is #1 issue but not literally the only one. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight .@PatrickRuffini: The upside case for Romney is that conventions were a wash, he’s still down ~2. Downside case: he’s in big trouble. Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight One more thought: the bin Laden mission may be an underrated factor in helping Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/227 "2012-09-09T05:07:42Z")
[http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/sept-8-conventions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/?utm\_source=twitterfeed&utm\_medium=twitter](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/sept-8-conventions-may-put-obama-in-front-runners-position/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) > [@](#): > > But on Friday, I wrote that Mr. Obama might eventually hold about a five-point lead over Mr. Romney once the tracking polls fully rolled over to post-convention data. Now it looks like his advantage could potentially be a bit larger than that, depending on how long the bounce holds. Despite a mediocre jobs report on Friday, there were no signs in the polls that Mr. Obama’s bounce had immediately receded, as he gained further ground in the surveys that were released on Saturday. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/228 "2012-09-09T05:41:58Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > … not to mention that a substantial fraction of undecideds are actually apathetic and won’t vote at all. Not to mention that some cohort of undecideds are undecided because they’re centrists. There might be some who disagree about who is the more centrist candidate, but most people know who it really is. You could expect the more centrist candidate to capture a larger share of votes from the centrist undecideds. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/229 "2012-09-09T17:57:23Z")
Hahahahahaha > **[Wingnuts argue conservatism being failed: by the American People](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/09/09/1129551/-Wingnuts-Argue-Conservatism-Being-Failed-By-The-American-People)** > > Ayn Rand is being failed by the American People. What would John Galt do? > > As Mark Kleiman notes , Republicans are waking up to the fact the Romney is losing. So it' People are too stupid and lazy to realize how great conservatism is, that is the line that is starting to take hold now that the polls show Romney consistently losing. What is the response to that? “Educate” the voters? lol. This is even better than I thought. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/230 "2012-09-09T18:14:48Z")
It’s what Romney and his supporters (and wife) have been saying ever since the “nail ladies” comment - that Obama is bad for America, he just _is_, for what they consider to be self-evident reasons, and when the little people wake up, they’ll understand immediately and realize that Romney is obviously the grown up and we should all vote for him, again for reasons they don’t feel any need to enumerate. Given their reluctance to explain their reasoning, it’s pretty hard not to suspect that this glaringly self-evident difference between Romney & Obama to which they’re referring is the obvious one. You’re right, too - it is pretty funny. ---
**Author:** ![fiddlesticks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddlesticks/32/18129_2.png) [@fiddlesticks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fiddlesticks)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/231 "2012-09-09T18:26:28Z")
That does explain the Republicans’ voter ID/voter suppression angle pretty clearly! ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/232 "2012-09-09T19:11:24Z")
Here’s Nate’s paragraph for those who want to keep up: > [@](#): > > Even without that, there are still some undecided voters left: not many, but a few. It is not the case, as a general rule, that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent. (You can safely ignore someone on your television set who says the opposite: they haven’t done the research.) But it’s also not necessarily the case that the undecideds will split evenly. In some elections, one candidate (either the incumbent or the challenger) wins most of them. It could be Mr. Romney, especially since his campaign figures to have more money to spend on advertisements in the remaining months. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/233 "2012-09-10T03:10:00Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > **bup** quoted some of the data, but I was actually going on a statement from Nate Silver [yesterday](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/sept-3-par-or-bogey/): So since 1968 at least, the challenging party has never finished with a bigger margin than what they had right after their convention other than Obama in 2008. > > And I would argue that the collapse of Lehman and general financial meltdown counts as a “unknown unknown” - the sort of external event that drives elections outside their typical path. And I think that, barring one of those, Obama is a solid favorite right now. There are two known things coming, and one big unknown: Known: 1. Many Medicare Advantage enrollees will receive notice of cancellation of their policies in october. 2. Many defense workers will receive layoff notices in the first week of November. Unknown: 1. Europe and the euro. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/234 "2012-09-10T03:12:06Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Speaking as a Pubbie. > If Romney loses, the Republicans will look at the numbers. 97+% of religious fundamentalists, social conservatives and tea-partiers voting for Romney vs. 20-30% of independent voters voting for him. Their reaction to those numbers will be > “How do we get that 3% of our base to vote Republican?” Ah, but what if Romney wins among independents? Some polls have showed Romney winning that group solidly. Not sure if that’s the case now. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/235 "2012-09-10T03:40:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are two known things coming, and one big unknown: > > Known: > > 1. Many Medicare Advantage enrollees will receive notice of cancellation of their policies in october. > 2. Many defense workers will receive layoff notices in the first week of November. Where are you getting that information? I don’t find anything about the first, and regarding the second what I can find seems to indicate that notices of layoff aren’t to be sent out because it’s not certain where exactly certain budget cuts will end up falling. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/236 "2012-09-10T03:46:45Z")
BTW just a note semi-relevant to the thread: Nate Silver’s Obama win percentage just past the 80 mark. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/237 "2012-09-10T04:08:34Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where are you getting that information? I don’t find anything about the first, and regarding the second what I can find seems to indicate that notices of layoff aren’t to be sent out because it’s not certain where exactly certain budget cuts will end up falling. That’s what the administration wants. The legal requirements are clear, however. Layoff notices will be sent. As for the first: > **[An $8 billion trick?](https://nypost.com/2012/04/23/an-8-billion-trick/)** > > Call it President Obama’s Committee for the Re-Election of the President — a political slush fund at the Health and Human Services Department. Only this isn’t some little fund from shadowy private … Thing is, this pilot program only applies to Medicare Advantage plans rated three stars or above, which means that many beneficiaries will lose their benefits in October as originally scheduled. That will definitely affect the outcome in Florida, especially if the media here gives it wide coverage, which it will. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/238 "2012-09-10T04:16:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Ah, but what if Romney wins among independents? Some polls have showed Romney winning that group solidly… Got a cite? Seriously, I haven’t seen that, and I’d be interested. Although feel free to be honest and say: “wishful thinking”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/239 "2012-09-10T04:21:50Z")
> **[Romney extends lead among Independents to 14 percent](https://redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/07/10/romney-extends-lead-among-independents-to-14-percent-n43713)** > > In the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney extends his lead among Independents to 14 points, 53-39 percent. Two months ago, a  POLITICO/George Washington Unive... > **[Romney opens 10-point lead among Independents](https://redstate.com/california_yankee/2012/05/07/romney-opens-10-point-lead-among-independents-n43072)** > > A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll finds the presidential race between President  Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to be very close, with Romney leading b... [http://patdollard.com/2012/08/james-carville-poll-panics-dems-romney-leads-by-15-points-among-independents/](http://patdollard.com/2012/08/james-carville-poll-panics-dems-romney-leads-by-15-points-among-independents/) Yeah, I know, right wing blogs, but they link to the actual polls in PDF format. Double digit lead among independents in three seperate polls. Not to mention that if a race is tied, the GOP has to be leading among independents because there are more Democrats than Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/240 "2012-09-10T04:23:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s what the administration wants. The legal requirements are clear, however. Layoff notices will be sent. > > As for the first: > > [An $8 billion trick?](http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/an_billion_trick_ImTBFfz7MeuZLJY7JzXEIJ) > > Thing is, this pilot program only applies to Medicare Advantage plans rated three stars or above, which means that many beneficiaries will lose their benefits in October as originally scheduled. > > That will definitely affect the outcome in Florida, especially if the media here gives it wide coverage, which it will. Don’t believe everything you read in the New York Post. Especially a piece clearly marked as a ‘opinion’ piece. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=13)