# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/241 "2012-09-10T12:24:21Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where are you getting that information? I don’t find anything about the first, and regarding the second what I can find seems to indicate that notices of layoff aren’t to be sent out because it’s not certain where exactly certain budget cuts will end up falling. Regarding defense contractor cuts. Most of the people will not know until the day they are let go. That is a standard security policy for any that are working on or using computerized system. This is to prevent those being let go from sabotaging the systems. Also, contractors (the companies) do not let the workers know any earlier than they have to because as soon as it is confirmed that a specific team is taking cuts, the bestest-and-brightest hit the streets for a new job and they’re left with the slow witted to work out the balance of the deliverables. SO, for pink slips to start flying in November, that would mean that workers were being let go at that time. I don’t see any contractors walking away from even an hour’s worth of billable work (let alone nearly two months), no matter who they want to win the election. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/242 "2012-09-10T12:33:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Thing is, this pilot program only applies to Medicare Advantage plans rated three stars or above, which means that many beneficiaries will lose their benefits in October as originally scheduled. > > That will definitely affect the outcome in Florida, especially if the media here gives it wide coverage, which it will. So, in October, it will kick off discussion about how Medicare Advantage (very similar to Romney/Ryan’s proposed solution) was a failure and ended up costing more? > [@](#): > > **Henry Aaron, Inventor Of Paul Ryan’s Medicare Reform Concept, Explains Why It’s Wrong** > > […] > > But in the case of Medicare Advantage, similar to premium support in that Medicare pays a private insurer to cover someone, the attempts at risk adjustment have raised costs by about 8 percent, Aaron noted. On top of that, although there are many Medicare Advantage plans in existence, they are not cheaper than traditional Medicare, and there’s little to suggest they will get cheaper. > > “The evidence to date is not encouraging,” Aaron said, noting a recent study that isolated the effects of competition on Medicare Advantage costs from government-related influences. “After controlling for all those factors, Medicare Advantage plans are more expensive than is traditional Medicare.” > **[Inventor Of Paul Ryan's Medicare Idea Explains Why It's Wrong](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/henry-aaron-paul-ryan-medicare_n_1466826)** > > Inventor Of Paul Ryan's Medicare Idea Explains Why It's Wrong I think that will be a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/243 "2012-09-10T12:47:42Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > Don’t believe everything you read in the New York Post. Yeah, in New York, avoid the Post, and in Washington, avoid the Times. They really oughta just swap names in Washington to cut down on any confusion! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/244 "2012-09-10T13:02:05Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Statistically speaking, it’s wildly improbable that a dozen randomly selected polls are all going to be sitting at the edge of their confidence interval, all in the same direction. The only way they’re all wrong in that fashion is if the sampling isn’t representative (a possibility I’d never rule out, especially with the increase in people with no land line - I know polling firms are trying to compensate for that, but are they doing so in an accurate fashion?) Actually most polls seem to poll registered voters, as opposed to likely voters. Historically Republicans are more likely to vote than Dems. So the polls of registered voters may all show a modest Dem advantage but the results of the election may be a Rep win. If that seems upsetting then get out and vote and encourage others to do the same. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/245 "2012-09-10T13:48:26Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where are you getting that information? I don’t find anything about the first, and regarding the second what I can find seems to indicate that notices of layoff aren’t to be sent out because it’s not certain where exactly certain budget cuts will end up falling. The WARN Act requires 60 day notice before mass layoffs. > [@](#): > > [Reuters Cite](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/us-usa-sequestration-layoffs-idUSBRE86U00720120731) from July 30, 2012 The Labor Department said that the law did not apply in the current circumstances because while sequestration may occur, efforts are being made to avoid it. > > So “even the occurrence of sequestration is not necessarily foreseeable,” the guidance said. It said relevant case law would not require employers to provide notices under the current conditions. But at least some major defense contractors will go ahead with the layoff notices which must be sent out a few days before the election if Congress has not fixed this mess first. > [@](#): > > [TheHill Cite](http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/industry/243005-us-defense-firms-may-push-forward-with-layoff-notices-) from August 9, 2012 Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney are going forward with plans to issue layoff notices to thousands of employees due to looming defense cuts under sequestration, despite administration claims that such warnings are unnecessary. Lockheed Martin may still be on track. Some states apparently have 90 day notice requirements so we may see in early October which contractors are likely to send out notices. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/246 "2012-09-10T14:30:35Z")
You don’t think defense contractors would try to manipulate this to make Obama look bad, do you? Nah, they wouldn’t do that…😉 ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/247 "2012-09-10T14:32:26Z")
Honestly either way I’m surprised if this would have that much of an effect on the election. Probably no one is going to literally change their mind as a result of recieving a layoff notice, so it will only affect undecideds within the defense industry and those close to them who are also undecided. Moreover, surely these guys already know all about this? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/248 "2012-09-10T15:55:42Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Actually most polls seem to poll registered voters, as opposed to likely voters. Historically Republicans are more likely to vote than Dems. > > So the polls of registered voters may all show a modest Dem advantage but the results of the election may be a Rep win. > > If that seems upsetting then get out and vote and encourage others to do the same. Not really. Some poll likely voters and some poll registered voters. Obama consistently does much better in polls for registered voters but he leads by smaller margins in likely voter polls. So it would be more accurate to summarize this election by saying that a poll of registered voters shows a large Obama advantage, but the results of the election may be a smaller Obama win. Meanwhile the Likely voter polls showing a modest Obama advantage may be correct. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/249 "2012-09-10T16:03:34Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Actually most polls seem to poll registered voters, as opposed to likely voters. Historically Republicans are more likely to vote than Dems. > > So the polls of registered voters may all show a modest Dem advantage but the results of the election may be a Rep win. > > If that seems upsetting then get out and vote and encourage others to do the same. Nate Silver’s methods [take all that into account.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/obama-would-be-big-favorite-with-fired-up-base/#more-34165) On Sept 6, his model predicted a 68.1% chance of an Obama victory among likely voters, but a 90.6% victory if all registered voters showed up. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/250 "2012-09-10T16:29:30Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Moreover, surely these guys already know all about this? As a defense contractor, I can most assuredly say yes. Nobody except the very dimwitted are going to be caught by surprise that their division is getting downsized, or that their contract isn’t getting renewed. And nobody is going to switch political parties over it. Unlike a private company which can keep its inner workings secret, most matters of DoD contracts and budgeting are public record, and we’re all pretty good at figure this stuff out. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/251 "2012-09-10T16:34:45Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > It’s what Romney and his supporters (and wife) have been saying ever since the “nail ladies” comment - that Obama is bad for America, he just _is_, for what they consider to be self-evident reasons, and when the little people wake up, they’ll understand immediately and realize that Romney is obviously the grown up and we should all vote for him, again for reasons they don’t feel any need to enumerate. I had to tolerate overhearing a conversation about this very subject this weekend. Two conservatives prattling on about how the election would be a landslide Romney victory if only the public were educated enough. Followed by much speculation on how the election will probably be a Romney win anyway even though all polls show otherwise. I really wanted to bring up the In-Trade suggestion stolen from this thread, but I thought better of sticking my nose into that hornet’s nest. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/252 "2012-09-10T16:52:51Z")
If Romney loses, I’m curious, is the conventional wisdom still that Rick Santorum will wind up as the GOP nominee in 2016? I mean, as per the OP, I really only see two ways in which the Pubbies could respond in the wake of a decisive Romney loss: (1) they could do some soul-searching and realize that they strayed way too far to the right in this election and try to purge the Tea Party crazies from their ranks, or (2) they could argue that their candidate wasn’t conservative _enough_ and that’s why they lost. Frankly, I just think the first option won’t happen, and that the second scenario is infinitely more likely. With that in mind, that would pave the way for Santorum next time around, assuming that people still recognize that the GOP operates under an “it’s your turn” philosophy when it comes to presidential nominations. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/253 "2012-09-10T16:58:54Z")
Ryan, not Santorum, would be my guess. ---
**Author:** ![BlinkingDuck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/eada6e/32.png) [@BlinkingDuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlinkingDuck)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/254 "2012-09-10T17:00:40Z")
If the Republicans are lucky, Obama will trounce the hell out of them in a way that makes it impossible for them to reconcile it…and give the REAL Republicans in the party an opportunity to take control and bring back the people who have left the party over the past few years. The worst result for the Republicans is to lose but only by 60 EV or so. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/255 "2012-09-10T17:07:26Z")
> [@BlinkingDuck](#): > > If the Republicans are lucky, Obama will trounce the hell out of them in a way that makes it impossible for them to reconcile it…and give the REAL Republicans in the party an opportunity to take control and bring back the people who have left the party over the past few years. But Romney is a pretty moderate Republican - formerly pro-choice, author of a universal health care law, etc. The whole beef against him in his party was that he was too moderate, not too extreme. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/256 "2012-09-10T17:09:01Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > If Romney loses, I’m curious, is the conventional wisdom still that Rick Santorum will wind up as the GOP nominee in 2016? > > I mean, as per the OP, I really only see two ways in which the Pubbies could respond in the wake of a decisive Romney loss: (1) they could do some soul-searching and realize that they strayed way too far to the right in this election and try to purge the Tea Party crazies from their ranks, or (2) they could argue that their candidate wasn’t conservative _enough_ and that’s why they lost. > > Frankly, I just think the first option won’t happen, and that the second scenario is infinitely more likely. With that in mind, that would pave the way for Santorum next time around, assuming that people still recognize that the GOP operates under an “it’s your turn” philosophy when it comes to presidential nominations. I’m just curious: Do you feel like Democrats did an appropriate amount of soul-searching and realized they strayed way too far to the left after their 2010 ass-whipping? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/257 "2012-09-10T17:20:41Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m just curious: Do you feel like Democrats did an appropriate amount of soul-searching and realized they strayed way too far to the left after their 2010 ass-whipping? That’s just a mid-term, with very low turnout. The Dems actually did do this in past presidential drubbings- with Bill Clinton as the final product. This is how our political system supposed to work- if a party gets trounced in a presidential election, it _ought_ to take a good, long look at itself. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/258 "2012-09-10T17:22:04Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m just curious: Do you feel like Democrats did an appropriate amount of soul-searching and realized they strayed way too far to the left after their 2010 ass-whipping? I’m assuming you’re too new to have read this the forty million times it was posted before, so I’ll repeat it yet again. The 2010 election was an anomaly. Usually turnouts go down by about half in non-presidential years. In 2010 Republicans got more of their right-wing base to turn out than in 2008 but the Democratic vote went down as usual. That’s a superb achievement, but one that has never happened before, is not likely to again, and has no predictive power. We know this because the effect did not even last until the Republican primaries, in which all the base candidates lost and the establishment candidate won as predicted by everyone who understood what happened in 2010. It’s completely unclear what the party will do after the election. The right wing of the party has shown that it has no national future, although they may continue to be a force in local and state races. I’ve been predicting all year that the election would be close but Romney had to swing too many states to make him a likely winner. Unless something amazing happens in the next two months an Obama win is nearly inevitable. The only thing I’m sure of is that Rick Santorum has no future in the national party and that nobody in America thinks he will be the nominee. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/259 "2012-09-10T17:37:20Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Unless something amazing happens in the next two months an Obama win is nearly inevitable. You really feel that way? ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/260 "2012-09-10T17:45:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You really feel that way? You have to really delude yourself to think otherwise at this point. The last couple weeks were the candidate’s chances to introduce themselves to the slim portion of voters who really weren’t paying attention already. The polls are very clear that Obama came out of that process better - the only question to see from polling in the coming weeks will be how big an advantage he got. But Obama has been ahead the entire campaign - the only thing that has changed since the conventions is that he’s further ahead. There were even some Romney campaign officials admitting privately over the weekend that they’re losing at this point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=14)