# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/261 "2012-09-10T17:46:17Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m just curious: Do you feel like Democrats did an appropriate amount of soul-searching and realized they strayed way too far to the left after their 2010 ass-whipping? That’s a fantasy interpretation of the 2010 election. Let’s not forget that 2010 was really the rise and apparent zenith of the Tea Party, a movement that brought a loose, incoherent message of liberty and economics as a cover for a core party plank of “holy shit the US has a black president.” Fortunately, Birtherism is self defeatingly crazy, and the Kenyan colonial socialist is gonna getcha does not appear to be a sustaining message. If it were, then given the present economic environment, Romney would be up by 20. I don’t think anyone did any soul searching. I think a portion of the Republican base subtly got up to move away from the muttering dishevelled guy on the bus next to them. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/262 "2012-09-10T17:48:55Z")
Given the drop in ad buys for Romney in PA, MI, OH, & WI, it is somewhat difficult to see what the Romney campaign sees as its path through the electoral college. They seem to believe the ship is sinking. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/263 "2012-09-10T18:10:00Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Given the drop in ad buys for Romney in PA, MI, OH, & WI, it is somewhat difficult to see what the Romney campaign sees as its path through the electoral college. They seem to believe the ship is sinking. How do you figure? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/264 "2012-09-10T18:15:07Z")
Hasn’t their path always been: win NC, FL, and OH and then cobble together 16-17 more electoral votes between MI (16), VA (13), WI (10), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), and NH (4) ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/265 "2012-09-10T18:16:33Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > “holy shit the US has a black president.” I was going to ask for a cite on this, but I googled “President of the United States” and, [Holy fuck you’re right!](http://www.whitehouse.gov/) Man, have I not been paying attention. I thought it was some crazy right-wing theory like the moon landing. > [@](#): > > Hasn’t their path always been: win NC, FL, and OH and then cobble together 16-17 more electoral votes between MI (16), VA (13), WI (10), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), and NH (4) Then, dropping the tv onslaught in Ohio and Michigan is inconsistent with that strategy, right? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/266 "2012-09-10T18:16:58Z")
Because those states represent about 50-60 electoral votes that he HAS to compete for to win. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/267 "2012-09-10T18:19:31Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Hasn’t their path always been: win NC, FL, and OH and then cobble together 16-17 more electoral votes between MI (16), VA (13), WI (10), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), and NH (4) But HtB said they are _pulling back_ from Ohio. I’m not saying he’s right, but your question was really weird given what he said and what you’re saying now. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/268 "2012-09-10T18:21:19Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Then, dropping the tv onslaught in Ohio and Michigan is inconsistent with that strategy, right? I don’t see how. OH is pretty much considered a must-win for Romney I think. Advertising there would seem like the logical thing to do. As for MI, I’m not sure it is a “must-win” state, but it’s one of a number of competetive states that he could use to get to 270 (269 really .. but I think we can all hope it doesn’t come down to that). Anyways, I don’t see how anyone can equate advertising in a battleground state with “They seem to believe the ship is sinking.” ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/269 "2012-09-10T18:22:35Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I’m not saying he’s right, but your question was really weird given what he said and what you’re saying now. Ahhh, i see. He said, “drop in ad buys” and I read it as “drop-in ad buys.” My bad. Is Romney really pulling back on advertising in Ohio? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/270 "2012-09-10T18:24:27Z")
Maybe HurricaneDitka believes that people will be more likely to vote for Romney if they see less of him. Hey… ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/271 "2012-09-10T18:27:24Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Ahhh, i see. He said, “drop in ad buys” and I read it as “drop-in ad buys.” My bad. Is Romney really pulling back on advertising in Ohio? Ah, that makes much more sense! There were some reports that Romney had stopped running ads in Ohio. I would believe that a majority of Ohioans got together and made burnt offerings to the gods of advertising to give them a bit of respite, but I can’t believe that Romney would really abandon Ohio. That would be utterly insane. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/272 "2012-09-10T18:29:21Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > the drop in ad buys for Romney in PA, MI, OH, & WI, Where did you learn about this? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/273 "2012-09-10T18:31:27Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where did you learn about this? A quick Google search turned up [this](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/07/1129067/-Romney-goes-dark-in-Ohio-because-who-the-hell-knows), but even it seems to concede that this looks like a one-week-off rather than complete surrender in OH. > [@](#): > > The Romneys aren’t pulling out. Ohio is part of their “carpetbombing” effort coming up next week. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/274 "2012-09-10T18:32:37Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Where did you learn about this? A variety of sources. I’d heard about PA and MI a while ago. I was shocked about OH when I read about it a few days ago. Here’s one source: > **[Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now)](https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-xpm-2012-sep-06-la-pn-romney-obama-ohio-ads-20120906-story.html)** > > Romney cedes Ohio TV airwaves to Obama (at least for now) I just don’t see them giving up on OH without giving up on the election altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/275 "2012-09-10T19:00:25Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You really feel that way? Read my posts for the last year. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Hasn’t their path always been: win NC, FL, and OH and then cobble together 16-17 more electoral votes between MI (16), VA (13), WI (10), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), and NH (4) McCain got 173 electoral votes in 2008, so Romney has to pick up 97. NC, FL and OH are only 62. That would leave him 35 votes short, not 16-17. So he has to pick up a minimum of three more states. [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) has all those states as toss-ups, but shows Obama leading in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. I.e. every toss-up state but North Carolina. Many of those leads are razor-thin. It’s not impossible that Romney will put them out. Every day that goes by without Romney pulling into the lead makes running the board less and less likely, though. The Fivethirtyeight blog now has Obama’s chances of winning up to 80%, which is astounding. Intrade remains lower but seems stuck at about 60%. Republicans have hope but I know of no objective evidence that points to a Romney win. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/276 "2012-09-10T19:08:30Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > McCain got 173 electoral votes in 2008, so Romney has to pick up 97. NC, FL and OH are only 62. That would leave him 35 votes short, not 16-17. So he has to pick up a minimum of three more states. I think you may have missed this little thing we do every 10 years called a “census.” For your benefit, let’s review: Romney is favored in states with 191 electoral votes according to RCP. 191 + 29 [FL] + 15 [NC] + 18 [OH] would put him at 253 votes, or 17 short of the 270 he needs to win outright. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/277 "2012-09-10T19:28:07Z")
Obama is starting to run away with Ohio. Silver gives him about a 75% chance of winning the state, which is a very high number in his model. Florida is at about 67% for Obama. \*\*HurricaneDitka \*\*- How do you see Romney turning those numbers around in his favor in the next 2 months? ---
**Author:** ![CJJ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecc23a/32.png) [@CJJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CJJ)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/278 "2012-09-10T19:29:26Z")
[QUOTE=HurricaneDitka] I think you may have missed this little thing we do every 10 years called a “census.” [/quote] Romney’s total is also enhanced by his lock on IN’s 11 electoral votes, a state which Obama won in 2008. The census accounts for the other 7 EV’s, giving him a sure 173+7+11 = 191. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/279 "2012-09-10T19:30:14Z")
I’ve been thinking about the question raised in the OP. There are many of us who would wish to see a Republican Party return to sanity, something like the old “Big Tent”: fiscal responsibility, socially moderate, willing to acknowledge environmental concerns, strong on national security. Basically, minus all the egregious corporate welfare (and the related, stupid trickle-down economic theories) and minus the hard-right, anti-science religious wackos. Basically, I see several obstacles to this. First, abortion. That issue alone has led to the veneer of moral superiority that the GOP parades about hither and thither, and which is of course dubious at best. But that issue isn’t going to be resolved anytime soon. Gay marriage will be a done deal sometime, but I don’t see abortion going away as an issue. Second, the money in the hard-right evangelical religious community. It’s A LOT of money. The GOP gets most of it, and that will continue as long as the abortion issue in particular is polarized between the parties. It just doesn’t seem like a situation that’s likely to change. Third, “Citizens United” will pretty much guarantee for the foreseeable future that both parties remain beholden to powerful monetary interests above all else. What would need to change for the “sane” GOP I describe above to have a chance is for the far-right religious types to be thoroughly repudiated and diminished, as is the case in many European countries. I think the country will indeed swing to a increasingly secular mindset, but it won’t happen fast if at all. The other thing that would have to change is a constitutional amendment codifying some kind of strong campaign finance reform, such as the McCain-Feingold Act. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that. In a nutshell, if the GOP loses decisively, nothing will change. Romney’s influence will vanish like dust in the wind, since he will be blamed for having been a weak candidate (like Dukakis, to name another MA governor who was basically a loser), and the GOP will continue to push for hard-right candidates, because no one else would survive being vetted in the primaries and caucuses. The other possibility I think could happen would be if a transformational, inspiring figure become the next presidential GOP nominee, but one who would really sell a more moderate GOP platform. It would have to be someone who could get through the nominated process and defeat the Tea Party types, and yet be someone who would appeal to moderate Democrats and foster in a new version of the “Big Tent.” But, who with this person be? I’m not seeing anyone on the horizon, mainly because the Tea Party and far religious right are not going to lighten their grip on the GOP anytime soon, and there’s no one I can think of who could overcome them who isn’t, well, one of them. In short, the more things change, the more the stay the same. Hoping for a big shift in the current state of American politics is akin to hoping some friendly space aliens would visit us and give us a bunch of amazing new technologies for free. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/280 "2012-09-10T19:41:07Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > Obama is starting to run away with Ohio. Silver gives him about a 75% chance of winning the state, which is a very high number in his model. Florida is at about 67% for Obama. > > \*\*HurricaneDitka \*\*- How do you see Romney turning those numbers around in his favor in the next 2 months? Bob, I don’t pay as much attention to Nate Silver as most of the liberals here do. I see Obama ahead by [~2.2 points in OH](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html) and [~1.7 points in FL](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html). I don’t see either of those as insurmountable leads, but obviously Romney will have to do better than he has up 'til this point in the race. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=15)