# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/381 "2012-09-19T23:10:34Z")
> [@Andiethewestie](#): > > Oh Wow, Nate just posted about Pollsters that call cellphones rather than only landlines is showing a stronger lead for Obama … nd he’s got OBama’s chances of victory lower again. It’s not one poll, it’s all of them, as Silver would tell you. Nobody in the thread wants to mention the Gallup poll today that had Obama’s lead shrunk to one percent. Overall his lead is slim. This is no massacre. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2012, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/382 "2012-09-19T23:43:09Z")
It’s true. Don’t get complacent out there. But the status of the race (and for me 2008 felt like a nailbiter, even though it didn’t end up being one), seems to be better for Obama [now than it was four years ago](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html). Still, plenty of time for shit to go wrong for Obama, and who knows. If that jobs report ends up being disastrous, that could swing the electorate enough. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/383 "2012-09-20T00:17:24Z")
The national popular vote is irrelevant. Every single person in the South could vote for Romney and it wouldn’t make a difference. There’s a reason Nate puts the Electoral Vote at the top of the page. I just heard on the radio that three new Fox News polls put Obama up seven points in Virginia and Ohio, and up five in Florida. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/384 "2012-09-20T00:29:45Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I just heard on the radio that three new Fox News polls put Obama up seven points in Virginia and Ohio, and up five in Florida. [You heard right.](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/19/obama-has-edge-over-romney-in-three-battleground-states/) Not only that, but Obama leads Romney in these crucial categories: > [@](#): > > Majorities of voters are unhappy with how things are going in the country, yet in all three states more say they trust Obama than Romney to improve the economy. > > Likewise, in each state more voters believe the Obama administration’s policies have helped rather than hurt the economy – albeit by slim margins: By two points in Florida, three points in Ohio and five points in Virginia. > > Amid the turbulent situation in the Middle East, each of the polls shows the president is more trusted than Romney on foreign policy. Oh, and about that “enthusiasm gap”: > [@](#): > > In Ohio and Virginia, the president’s favorable rating is 10 percentage points higher than Romney’s, and it’s 6 points higher in Florida. > > In addition, Obama supporters are much more likely than Romney supporters to say they “strongly favor” their candidate: In Ohio by 23 percentage points, in Florida by 21 points and by 17 points in Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/385 "2012-09-20T00:30:17Z")
I thought you guys hated Fox/News polls? 😛 (Kind of weird to see you guys trot them out whereas you’d be crying foul. But I digress.) I only clicked on the Florida poll and I can tell you that 42/37/20 is not a likely split at all. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/386 "2012-09-20T00:32:17Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I just heard on the radio that three new Fox News polls put Obama up seven points in Virginia and Ohio, and up five in Florida. That’s right. I think that on Election day, once we hear that Florida’s 29 EV have gone to Obama, then the election is called on the spot. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/387 "2012-09-20T00:34:06Z")
What do you think happened to the poll to make it in such error? What do you think of Fox polls, in general? Generally reliable, or not? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/388 "2012-09-20T00:46:48Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > What do you think happened to the poll to make it in such error? What do you think of Fox polls, in general? Generally reliable, or not? I asked my question first? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/389 "2012-09-20T01:00:07Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I thought you guys hated Fox/News polls? 😛 > > (Kind of weird to see you guys trot them out whereas you’d be crying foul. But I digress.) Nobody “hates” a poll. It’s just taken into context. Some polls seem to show partisan biases, for whatever reason. I think the point is that Fox News polls have traditionally shown a slight Republican lean (although it seems less so to me this election cycle), so it’s especially encouraging (for those of use who are Obama supporters) if those polls are trending left. Now if you see Rasmussen saying the same thing, that _really_ doesn’t bode well for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/390 "2012-09-20T01:00:22Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I asked my question first? I haven’t heard that the Fox News pollsters show any demonstrable bias either way. Rassmussen yes, but Fox no. If they are biased for Republicans, things are really up shit creek for them, aren’t they? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/391 "2012-09-20T01:51:51Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > That’s right. I think that on Election day, once we hear that Florida’s 29 EV have gone to Obama, then the election is called on the spot. The nets have an agreement in place not to say that directly until the polls close in CA and WA (OR uses mail). But it will be clear enough from their circumlocutions. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/392 "2012-09-20T02:23:41Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > … nd he’s got OBama’s chances of victory lower again. It’s not one poll, it’s all of them, as Silver would tell you. > > Nobody in the thread wants to mention the Gallup poll today that had Obama’s lead shrunk to one percent. Overall his lead is slim. This is no massacre. Actually the lead is better than slim, and Nate has re-adjusted the chances of victory higher to 75.2% this evening. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/393 "2012-09-20T02:30:21Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I haven’t heard that the Fox News pollsters show any demonstrable bias either way. Rassmussen yes, but Fox no. > > If they are biased for Republicans, things are really up shit creek for them, aren’t they? I was thinking Fox had a slight Republican lean. But let’s say they have a major Republican lean. That would mean that poll from them showing Romney in front is less trustworthy than a poll from them showing Obama in front. I don’t see the shock or surprise in that. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/394 "2012-09-20T02:30:33Z")
> [@Andiethewestie](#): > > Actually the lead is better than slim, and Nate has re-adjusted the chances of victory higher to 75.2% this evening. The Now-Cast is an interesting number, with Romney down to 5.6% ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/395 "2012-09-20T02:37:29Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > The Now-Cast is an interesting number, with Romney down to 5.6% Oooo I just clicked on that handy tab, thanks! Very impressive for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/396 "2012-09-20T04:21:59Z")
I don’t follow polling closely enough to have an opinion that matters about it, I’ve heard Rasumussen leans predictably right, I would have suspected Fox likewise. I only deliberately look at 538 so I guess that’s what I trust most. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 9:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/397 "2012-09-20T09:16:22Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The nets have an agreement in place not to say that directly until the polls close in CA and WA (OR uses mail). But it will be clear enough from their circumlocutions. Why not wait for Alaska and Hawaii? Or do polls happen to close in both states at an earlier local hour than in CA and WA? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/398 "2012-09-20T13:41:09Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Why not wait for Alaska and Hawaii? Or do polls happen to close in both states at an earlier local hour than in CA and WA? The honest answer is that nobody cares about Alaska and Hawaii so the networks don’t have to either. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/399 "2012-09-20T13:46:30Z")
And a 4-point swing towards Obama in Rasmussen tracking this morning to O+2, after a 1-point move towards him yesterday. It seems the 47% remark may be moving at least one poll (which also happened to be the only one showing a Romney lead). Brings the RCP average back up to O+3.3. It will be interesting to see if Gallup follows over the next few days (it moves slower because it’s a 7-day tracker instead of 3-days). ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/400 "2012-09-20T14:11:38Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The nets have an agreement in place not to say that directly until the polls close in CA and WA (OR uses mail). But it will be clear enough from their circumlocutions. Of course, the nets are irrelevant now in the Internet age. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=21)