# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/401 "2012-09-20T14:23:04Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The honest answer is that nobody cares about Alaska and Hawaii so the networks don’t have to either. Alaska +3 to Romney Hawaii +4 to Obama There. Now we don’t have to wait. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/402 "2012-09-20T15:39:09Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The honest answer is that nobody cares about Alaska and Hawaii so the networks don’t have to either. Especially since their EVs are pretty much taken for granted in the Presidential contest, with Alaska in the GOP column, and Hawaii going Dem, in anything short of a Johnson-Goldwater, Nixon-McGovern, or Reagan-Mondale landslide. Of course, the way the Dems have come to own the West Coast states, they might as well call the Presidential election as soon as the polls in all the Rocky Mountain states close. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/403 "2012-09-20T17:44:49Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > Of course, the nets are irrelevant now in the Internet age. In 2008, I was watching network election coverage and biting my nails because they kept reporting states being won by McCain and discussing his chances. At 6:30 p.m. Pacific, I clicked on the SDMB and instantly learned that Obama had already won the election. Of course, that wasn’t announced by the networks for another 90 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/404 "2012-09-20T17:47:32Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Especially since their EVs are pretty much taken for granted in the Presidential contest, with Alaska in the GOP column, and Hawaii going Dem, in anything short of a Johnson-Goldwater, Nixon-McGovern, or Reagan-Mondale landslide. > > Of course, the way the Dems have come to own the West Coast states, they might as well call the Presidential election as soon as the polls in all the Rocky Mountain states close. True enough. But Hawaii has a fairly interesting senate race this year. And every senator counts. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/405 "2012-09-20T18:22:51Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Why not wait for Alaska and Hawaii? Or do polls happen to close in both states at an earlier local hour than in CA and WA? I think the point is this: Immediately after the polls close in CA and WA, the networks will announce that their electoral votes have been won by Obama. They’ll know it from the exit polls, but of course it’s a foregone conclusion. At that point the total electoral votes from all the called races will be enough to put Obama over the top, and so that’s when they’ll announce that he’s won re-election. That’s what happened in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2012, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/406 "2012-09-20T22:37:17Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The nets have an agreement in place not to say that directly until the polls close in CA and WA (OR uses mail). But it will be clear enough from their circumlocutions. By the way, WA does all of its ballots exclusively by mail now as well. You _can_ drop it off somewhere locally, but the ballots are mailed to registered voters who then can mail the completed ballot in or find somewhere legit to drop it off. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2012, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/407 "2012-09-21T01:15:39Z")
Nate’s adjusted Obama’s chance of win Nov. 6 Forecast to 76.1% ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/408 "2012-09-30T22:41:09Z")
Reality is falling in to line with 538. Intrade lags a bit, but is catching up. The Nov 6 forecast is now 84%/%16 - Obama. Intrade is 77%/23% - Obama. Vegas odds are closer to 66% Obama but there is a house bias. 538 gives the Senate to the Dems. The interesting thing will be to see how the model handles the House. Although unlikely, the Dems could take it back. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/409 "2012-10-01T02:15:48Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Vegas odds are closer to 66% Obama but there is a house bias. I’m curious as to what you mean by this. The thing to remember is that Vegas doesn’t try to predict the outcome. It’s _only_ focus is to even out the amount of money put on both sides of the bet. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/410 "2012-10-01T02:33:19Z")
Z, In Vegas betting. Obama is the odds-on favorite. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/411 "2012-10-01T02:54:43Z")
Yes, but what I’m saying is that you shouldn’t look at the Vegas odds as being predictive. It’s not their purpose. The odds are set (and maintained as much as possible) to ensure that money splits evenly on both sides. Vegas odds don’t care who wins. They want the losing gamblers to cancel out the winning gamblers. That leaves them with the vig which is _always_ a winner (if you’re the book-maker). Now, as it happens in this case, it seems like Vegas has started to align with the predictive models, but they could just as easily be moving the other way and, as long as the money split remained near even, the bookie would be perfectly happy. ---
**Author:** ![zoog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/7ea924/32.png) [@zoog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoog)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/412 "2012-10-01T03:22:50Z")
I didn’t think that they could take money on elections in Vegas. I have heard of some offshore books that took action on elections. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/413 "2012-10-01T12:40:20Z")
Z, Perhaps so, but that’s still the way you bet. In any case the predictive models strongly point toward an Obama victory. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/848f3c/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_Dunlop)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/414 "2012-10-01T17:12:20Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > But their “Now Cast” lead has expanded even more to where Romney now only have 11.8%. How embarrassing. I hope it drops to single digits, if only for a day. Well now I feel pretty silly, given that Romney is currently struggling to keep above the 1% mark. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/415 "2012-10-01T18:14:16Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > Reality is falling in to line with 538. Intrade lags a bit, but is catching up. > > The Nov 6 forecast is now 84%/%16 - Obama. Intrade is 77%/23% - Obama. Vegas odds are closer to 66% Obama but there is a house bias. > > 538 gives the Senate to the Dems. The interesting thing will be to see how the model handles the House. Although unlikely, the Dems could take it back. > > Crane I don’t think Nate Silver makes predictions about the House of Representatives. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/416 "2012-10-01T18:25:25Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_Dunlop](#): > > Well now I feel pretty silly, given that Romney is currently struggling to keep above the 1% mark. Now now, don’t exaggerate. As of today, Romney is close to cracking 2% in the “Now Cast” estimate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=20)