# What if 538 is right, and Romney loses by 60+ electoral votes **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 31, 2012, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316 "2012-08-31T23:22:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/41 "2012-09-01T15:23:05Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Anyway, what if Republicans hold the House, pick up the Senate and lose the presidency? What then? Would it cause Democrats to reevaluate their standings? Probably not, since losing by such a wide margin during midterms didn’t cause them to try to “reach out”. I never understand the point of these threads because they inevitably degenerate into a partisan hackfest. Since the OP asks how the GOP would react and people have been answering the OP, I don’t understand why you’re expecting an answer about how the Democrats would react. I suspect they would react differently than the Republicans, though, simply because this implies a Republican landslide and nobody outside the true believer category thinks that will happen. 2010 was the single biggest aberration election ever so I can’t use that as a guide. More importantly, the GOP itself hasn’t been using it as a predictor so I can’t imagine why anyone else would. > [@](#): > > Anyway, fwiw, [according to this](http://www.gallup.com/poll/156848/obama-remains-women-presidential-pick-romney-men.aspx), Romney is actually winning among independents. Of course, the way demographics are skewed, Obama could conceivably win without winning the independent vote whereas Romney cannot. So, hypothetically speaking, if Romney wins independents yet loses the election, what then? First, never believe one poll about anything ever. Second, the national polls are irrelevant. Only the few swing states matter. If Romney wins independents but loses the election, why should the Democrats care? They’ve won the swing states exactly as forecast. That will be their guide. Overall, the country’s demographics are improving Democratic chances every year and those are the only demographics that matter. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > When I say 60, I mean 60 EV above the 270 you need to win. The real margin of victory for Obama (if he wins 332 EV) would be about 126 EV. Sorry, but how was anybody to know that? Nobody uses the numbers that way. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/42 "2012-09-01T15:32:22Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Sorry, but how was anybody to know that? Nobody uses the numbers that way. Well, either way the point is that despite the right being convinced the entire world hates Obama as much as the most right wing 10-15% of the US voting public does, how will they react if/when Obama wins the exact same states he won in 2008 minus Indiana and NC since they are convinced the entire world feels the same way they do? That is what the 538 map has been showing pretty consistently for the last few months. That gives Obama a 156 point spread in the EV. Not only that but 538 shows Obama winning with about 345 EV also being the second most probable (right now it shows that as the most probable, above about 332 which is usually the most probable outcome). I assume that means Obama wins NC, meaning Indiana is the only state he carried in 2008 that he fails to carry in 2012. But even Indiana moved pretty leftward, in 2000 and 2004 Bush carried it by a 20 point margin, in 2008 it was even and in 2012 I think Romney only has a 5-6 point lead here. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/43 "2012-09-01T15:35:20Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Listing one guys name nine times doesn’t count as multiple people. That one guy is Nate Silver, the founder and writer of [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com), and the title of the OP is “What if 538 is right…” Oh, and if you want a piece of good advice, don’t ever bet against Nate Silver. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/44 "2012-09-01T15:41:05Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Listing one guys name nine times doesn’t count as multiple people. > > Anyway, what if Republicans hold the House, pick up the Senate and lose the presidency? What then? Would it cause Democrats to reevaluate their standings? Probably not, since losing by such a wide margin during midterms didn’t cause them to try to “reach out”. I never understand the point of these threads because they inevitably degenerate into a partisan hackfest. > > Anyway, fwiw, [according to this](http://www.gallup.com/poll/156848/obama-remains-women-presidential-pick-romney-men.aspx), Romney is actually winning among independents. Of course, the way demographics are skewed, Obama could conceivably win without winning the independent vote whereas Romney cannot. So, hypothetically speaking, if Romney wins independents yet loses the election, what then? No, because that wouldn’t be a blowout. The democrats experienced blowouts in the 70s and 80s, and that caused them to reevaluate and move to the right from what I’ve seen. Bill Clinton tried to triangulate to take the wind out of GOP policies by co-opting lighter versions of them. The left seems to move to the right when they experience a blowout, the right seems to move to the right when they experience a blowout. I don’t like it, but it is what it is. As far as demographic trends favoring the dems, the GOP seems aware of this which is why they are pushing voter repression laws all over the country. The 2010 election was about turnout, not about ideology. In 2008 about 70 million people voted for Obama vs 60 million for McCain, a total of 130 million voters. The 2010 midterm had 90 million voters, 50 million GOP voters and 40 million democratic voters. It wasn’t like the public at large decided they wanted what the GOP were offering (cutting medicare and SS and using the money to fund supply side tax cuts). Tons of democrats stayed home while republicans voted. If anything the only thing the dems needed to learn from 2010 was how to keep their base and voters motivated enough to vote. The one thing I learned from the 2008-2009 period when the dems had a supermajority in congress was that the dems were unwilling/unable to play hardball while the GOP was (putting them at a permanent disadvantage), and that all legislation that was passed had to be watered down enough to make it palatable to the most conservative democratic members of the house and senate. Things like that make it hard to care enough to vote. If the GOP was incompetent and disorganized in congress while they faced a disciplined and efficient opposition, and every bit of legislation the GOP passed had to be made liberal enough to get the support of Snowe and Collins, then republicans would know how we felt in 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/45 "2012-09-01T15:41:41Z")
They’ll blame money and the ethnic vote. (Quebec politics reference) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/46 "2012-09-01T15:42:36Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Well, either way the point is that despite the right being convinced the entire world hates Obama as much as the most right wing 10-15% of the US voting public does… You seriously need to spend some time outside the echo chamber if you believe that. Actually, I’m not even sure you would get that from the echo chamber. Where are you getting that from? ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/47 "2012-09-01T15:45:56Z")
Obviously if Obama wins it is the result of voter fraud. New laws will have to restrict voting to only lifetime GOP members, which all REAL Americans are. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/48 "2012-09-01T16:05:59Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > That one guy is Nate Silver, the founder and writer of [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com), and the title of the OP is “What if 538 is right…” Kind of odd that so many here cannot understand the concept of posing a hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/49 "2012-09-01T16:29:45Z")
They’ll blame the media, of course. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/50 "2012-09-01T16:33:24Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > The model hasn’t predicted a single presidential election, correctly or incorrectly, ever, because it has just been developed. This year is the first year it has made a prediction. That’s not what that means though. It means that, looking back at previous elections with previous data, it WOULD HAVE predicted correctly, had it existed then. Which make sense, since many of these models simply use past data and results to predict the future. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/51 "2012-09-01T16:41:57Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > That’s not what that means though. > > It means that, looking back at previous elections with previous data, it WOULD HAVE predicted correctly, had it existed then. > > Which make sense, since many of these models simply use past data and results to predict the future. I could write a model just as accurate based upon who won the corresponding World Series and Best Picture Award, and that statement would be just as meaningless. It doesn’t matter where the data came from, the only thing that matters is how accurately it predicts things that haven’t happened yet. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/52 "2012-09-01T16:56:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You seriously need to spend some time outside the echo chamber if you believe that. > > Actually, I’m not even sure you would get that from the echo chamber. Where are you getting that from? I do live in an echo chamber. My info on conservatives comes from 2 sources. Liberal media outlets and people I know in person who are very, very right wing. I don’t really see conservatives either in the media or in person who aren’t on the fringes. So I have a pretty bad bias on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/53 "2012-09-01T17:48:03Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I could write a model just as accurate based upon who won the corresponding World Series and Best Picture Award, and that statement would be just as meaningless. It doesn’t matter where the data came from, the only thing that matters is how accurately it predicts things that haven’t happened yet. And then one has to take into account how an outlier that model is compared to others. > **[NerdWallet: Finance smarter](https://www.nerdwallet.com)** > > NerdWallet makes it easy to find the right financial product for you. Our Nerds do all the research so you don’t have to. > [@](#): > > 5 Reasons the University of Colorado Election Model is Dead Wrong > > 1. The CU model cheats > > If I told you what time I showed up for work every day last week would you be able to predict what time I showed up for work every day last week? You would? Great! You’re as good at statistical prediction modeling as the University of Colorado. > > Claiming to have created a model that would have “correctly predicted all elections since 1980” is complete nonsense when the model was created using data from all elections since 1980, the very data it claims to predict. In statistics we call this data mining. The proper procedure would have been to use a subset of the data to create the model (perhaps the 1980 and 1984 elections) and then test the model on an “out of sample backtest” of data that had not been used in creation of the model (the 1988 through 2008 elections). Only then do you get to claim your model is any good at making predictions. > [@](#): > > In short, the CU model is complete nonsense. This really isn’t surprising given how poor political economists are at making forecasts, according to the New York Times. But don’t take our word for it. Below is a summary of what other models and markets think of Romney’s chances: > > Models & Markets ------ Based on --------------Romney ------ Obama ------ Winner? > Princeton University ----- Polls -------------------- 12% --------- 88% -------- Obama > Nerdwallet ----------------- Polls --------------------20.2% ------- 78.4% ------ Obama > New York Times ----------- Polls --------------------28.7% ------- 71.3% ------ Obama > Washington Post------- Economic Indicators ---- 41.6% ------- 58.4% ----- Obama > American University – Economic Indicators – Obama- heavily favored - Obama > Betfair ------------------- Betting Market -----------37.0% ------- 62.1% ------ Obama > Intrade ------------------ Betting Market --------- 44.0% ---------55.2% ------ Obama > > Estimates as of August 28, 2012 ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/54 "2012-09-01T18:38:53Z")
How will the GOP/conservatives react? Since the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, then they will probably react the same this time as last time: with lawsuits (Bush v. Gore, ), extended recounts (Franken), dire predictions of the end of the world as we know it, and will finally blame the voters. I love to lsiten to the big conservative talkers following any event that happens that they feel strongly about. When Obama won, Rush Limbaugh was positively speechless the following day. He would start sentences and then let them trail off uncompleted. He lost whole trains of thought! There was a lot of desk thumping and paper rattling. But, mostly he blamed the voters for being too stupid to vote properly. I also recall some internet aquaintences claiming that voters were actually hypnotized by Obama. One of my local right wing radio hosts spent the day saying things like “You can kiss the Constitution goodbye!”, “You can kiss your freedom gooodbye!”, and “It’s the end of America as we know it!” I really enjoed that day! ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/55 "2012-09-01T19:08:47Z")
To be fair Romney IS a pretty bad candidate, so blaming him is not entirely wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/56 "2012-09-01T19:52:56Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > That’s not what that means though. > > It means that, looking back at previous elections with previous data, it WOULD HAVE predicted correctly, had it existed then. > > Which make sense, since many of these models simply use past data and results to predict the future. [explanatory hijack] Sort of like how global warming models use past data to legitimate the model. Then the validated model is used to urge action based upon model predictions for the future.[/explanatory hijack] To the OP… if Obama wins by 60EV (300 to 238) then the GOP reaction will be mild. No major political shifts in their positions. A good chance a Hispanic candidate is on the ballot in 2016, either top of the ticket or as VP. Marco Rubio? Susana Martinez? If Obama wins with 60EV more than the minimum (330 to 208) I doubt it would make much difference at all compared to the 60EV margin. It would take a shellacking (think Reagan v. Mondale) to make the party change course. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/57 "2012-09-01T19:57:20Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > [explanatory hijack] > Sort of like how global warming models use past data to legitimate the model. Then the validated model is used to urge action based upon model predictions for the future.[/explanatory hijack] Yes. That’s how models work. You look at past correlations and use them to predict future ones. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/58 "2012-09-01T19:59:07Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > I could write a model just as accurate based upon who won the corresponding World Series and Best Picture Award, and that statement would be just as meaningless. No it wouldn’t. There’s no logical connection between the World Series and elections. There’s a very strong logical connection between economics and elections. > [@](#): > > It doesn’t matter where the data came from, the only thing that matters is how accurately it predicts things that haven’t happened yet. False. It’s perfectly legitimate to test a model based on how it works in the past. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/59 "2012-09-01T20:17:11Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > It’s perfectly legitimate to test a model based on how it works in the past. My suggestion would be for you to gather up all your savings and that of all your family and friends and run out right away and place a wager on Romney to win the election on the Intrade website. You could clean up! Oh. And no matter what you do, DON’T follow the link in post #53 that **GIGObuster** provided. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2012, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316/60 "2012-09-01T20:18:17Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > No it wouldn’t. > > There’s no logical connection between the World Series and elections. There’s a very strong logical connection between economics and elections. > > False. > > It’s perfectly legitimate to test a model based on how it works in the past. Yes, but in the case of models for climate they indeed test them to see if they can simulate different times in the past (and the “future” when it eventually becomes the past) to validate the model, AFAIK the political model in question has not been used to test other elections older than 1980, a sign of data mining and cherry picking. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-538-is-right-and-romney-loses-by-60-electoral-votes/633316.md?page=4)