Granted, there’s evidence (and coming from Nate Silver, it should be taken seriously) that the rule may no longer be true, if it ever was. But cites for the claim, from this cycle, are easy to come by.
A trite saying. I disagree that it has to be ‘meaningless at best and probably false.’ I meant it in the sense of ‘common wisdom’ - some of which is true, some of which isn’t, but is too easily accepted.
It would really astonish me if the conventions were successful in changing anyone’s vote, but I’ll bet they’re successful in converting registered voters into likely voters, at least temporarily.
Since September is traditionally when the polling firms convert to a likely voter model there’s usually a convention bounce. Probably less pronounced in the Republican’s case, mainly because they’re better at showing up for elections and are probably already likely voters.
More of a bounce for the Democrats, because their constituents are less likely voters, and subject to fits of enthusiasm, but will that translate to votes on election day? Support a mile wide and an inch deep doesn’t get it done.
I know it’s only anecdotal, but I know two personal friends that typically vote GOP that specifically called me to say there were voting for Obama after his 2008 convention speech. That’s not to say it’s common, but it does happen. There is a great mass of very, very low-information voters out there as well as tons that literally tune out everything political until right about now.
Lots more eyeballs watch these conventions than any other political event, IIRC, particularly the big speeches. That’s why the bad TV ratings for the GOP event were such a bad sign.
I believe the conventions also solidify “leaners”, which some polling firms push harder than others. A low-push poll might see a pretty big bounce as all of the “undecided, lean Romney” voters decide to start saying “Romney” or vice versa.
Nate Silver has been Tweeting a lot tonight. It sounds like he’s ready to call the election, if he did that sort of thing.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
90% of the time, people overinterpret the movement in polls but I think the opposite is happening now.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Sometimes the election is won or lost at the conventions and this looks like it could be one of those years.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Also, it’s remarkable how unassertive GOP has been on foreign policy & social policy. Economy is #1 issue but not literally the only one.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
.@PatrickRuffini: The upside case for Romney is that conventions were a wash, he’s still down ~2. Downside case: he’s in big trouble.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
One more thought: the bin Laden mission may be an underrated factor in helping Obama.
Not to mention that some cohort of undecideds are undecided because they’re centrists. There might be some who disagree about who is the more centrist candidate, but most people know who it really is. You could expect the more centrist candidate to capture a larger share of votes from the centrist undecideds.
People are too stupid and lazy to realize how great conservatism is, that is the line that is starting to take hold now that the polls show Romney consistently losing.
What is the response to that? “Educate” the voters? lol. This is even better than I thought.
It’s what Romney and his supporters (and wife) have been saying ever since the “nail ladies” comment - that Obama is bad for America, he just is, for what they consider to be self-evident reasons, and when the little people wake up, they’ll understand immediately and realize that Romney is obviously the grown up and we should all vote for him, again for reasons they don’t feel any need to enumerate.
Given their reluctance to explain their reasoning, it’s pretty hard not to suspect that this glaringly self-evident difference between Romney & Obama to which they’re referring is the obvious one.
Where are you getting that information? I don’t find anything about the first, and regarding the second what I can find seems to indicate that notices of layoff aren’t to be sent out because it’s not certain where exactly certain budget cuts will end up falling.
That’s what the administration wants. The legal requirements are clear, however. Layoff notices will be sent.
As for the first:
Thing is, this pilot program only applies to Medicare Advantage plans rated three stars or above, which means that many beneficiaries will lose their benefits in October as originally scheduled.
That will definitely affect the outcome in Florida, especially if the media here gives it wide coverage, which it will.