# What if another Republican ran as an independent? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 11, 2015, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158 "2015-12-11T13:46:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/1 "2015-12-11T13:46:08Z")
Suppose Trump gets the nomination; what would happen if another Republican ran as an independent? If he (she) called themselves The Real Republicans, could they pull enough Republican votes from those who are dissatisfied with Trump, plus conservative independents to mount a credible challenge to Hillary? The way I see it, if Trump is nominated, the party is screwed. If Trump isn’t nominated, he will run as an independent, and the party is screwed. There is nothing to lose by trying a Trumpless independent run, and if Hillary stumbles, or is damaged in the Democratic primaries, could that provide an opening for an independent Republican? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/2 "2015-12-11T13:55:54Z")
I’m pretty sure there’s not enough potentially conservative voters. The more candidates that might appeal to conservative voters, the better for the Democratic candidate. If Trump is nominated, the best (and only) hope for the Republicans is to rally around him and pray (and he probably will still lose in a landslide). If Trump runs 3rd party, then they have even less hope, but the only remaining hope would be to dig like madmen into Trump’s past and try and find something disqualifying. I think the chance that Trump will be nominated by the Republicans is about 20% or so – and if he’s not nominated, then his chances of a 3rd party run are probably about 33% (something like 10% if Cruz is the nominee, and 50-70% if not, IMO). ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/3 "2015-12-11T14:04:02Z")
Many states have a “sore loser” statute that prevents a candidate who lost in a primary election from then being on the ballot as an independent in the General Election. In other words, if Trump wins the nomination, no other candidates who still had their name on the primary ballot can then also be on the general election ballot as an independent. Likewise, if Trump starts to lose primary elections, he can all of a sudden jump ship and run as an independent in November. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/4 "2015-12-11T14:52:38Z")
If the Republicans are screwed this cycle regardless, then they need to be looking at how to unscrew themselves for the next cycle. One can see how renouncing Trump might help with that. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/5 "2015-12-11T15:39:24Z")
The Republicans are going to have a bitch of time winning this time even without the headache of an Independent challenger. Throw that monkey wrench into the works and they don’t stand a chance. But, I don’t think Trump will run as an Independent. That sounds more like wishful thinking than anything else. ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/6 "2015-12-11T15:53:04Z")
I have a dear friend from college who, unfortunately, grew up a die-hard Republican. She’s not one of the crazy ones, much more of a traditional establishment Republican. A few months back she said she’d taken some kind of pledge to vote for whichever candidate won the GOP nomination, grudgingly admitting she’d hold her nose and vote for Trump if he were the nominee. I don’t know if her opinion may have changed given the Donald’s recent more fascistic bellowings, but … I think there is a very significant group of GOP voters like her. If Trump becomes the nominee, they’ll vote for him (or, perhaps, not vote at all). They won’t deliver their votes to some other independent candidate running as a “Real Republican” or “New Republican” or whatever. Anyone trying that tactic would be doomed to fail, and would absolutely sew up the White House for the Democrats in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/7 "2015-12-11T15:53:26Z")
Trump isn’t going to run as an independent. He isn’t about to throw good money after bad, he has to realize that his best chance to win, if he even wants to, is to run as the nominee. Likewise, no Republican is going to bolt and run as an independent should Trump win. They know it would be a fool’s errand. Their best strategy should Trump win the nomination would be to pour money in the downticket races and concede the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/8 "2015-12-11T17:48:17Z")
Ben Carson blasts RNC, [threatens to leave Republican Party](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ben-carson-rnc-washington-post-216674#ixzz3u2Gi3yBo) > [@](#): > > “If the leaders of the Republican Party want to destroy the party, they should continue to hold meetings like the one described in the Washington Post this morning,” Carson said in a statement released by his campaign. > > Carson said he prays the Post’s report is incorrect and threatened to leave the GOP. “If it is correct, every voter who is standing for change must know they are being betrayed. I won’t stand for it,” said Carson, who added that if the plot is accurate, “I assure you Donald Trump won’t be the only one leaving the party.” ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/9 "2015-12-11T18:06:28Z")
It really doesn’t matter if Trump is the Republican candidate and not-Trump runs as an independent, or not-Trump is the nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Either way you have two candidates competing for the voters who won’t vote for the Democrat. I think a more entertaining imaginary exercise is “What if Sanders ran as an independent against Hillary and Trump?” Would he be the anti-Trump protest candidate and cost Hillary those voters? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/10 "2015-12-11T18:27:45Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > I think a more entertaining imaginary exercise is “What if Sanders ran as an independent against Hillary and Trump?” Would he be the anti-Trump protest candidate and cost Hillary those voters? A worthy topic for another thread. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/11 "2015-12-11T21:39:48Z")
Not sure about other states, but here in NC you cannot run 3rd party if you already ran in a party primary. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/12 "2015-12-11T21:48:05Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Not sure about other states, but here in NC you cannot run 3rd party if you already ran in a party primary. So they would have to go rogue before the first primary? ---
**Author:** ![emcee2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7bcc69/32.png) [@emcee2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emcee2k)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/13 "2015-12-11T21:58:47Z")
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore-loser_law) only four states have neither “Sore-loser” laws, or same deadline registration laws. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/14 "2015-12-11T23:07:42Z")
In essence you’re talking about a national version of what Joe Lieberman did to win his last Senate election. Could work, I suppose, but don’t forget that in that election the Republicans basically laid down and died. Not going to happen with the Dems and Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/15 "2015-12-11T23:38:41Z")
> [@emcee2k](#): > > According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore-loser_law) only four states have neither “Sore-loser” laws, or same deadline registration laws. If you trace the cites in that article, it is indicated that that is a Wikipedia article that is simply crying out to be re-written. I can’t find anything in the cites that supports the claim. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/16 "2015-12-11T23:42:42Z")
I can’t imagine any conservative-leaning third candidate not sinking a Republican candidate. (It goes without saying that the third candidate is already sunk.) Modern elections are just too close. Losing even 5% of the votes you’d normally expect would be enough to kill you off. The same would be true for a Democrat’s chances with a liberal-leaning third candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/17 "2015-12-12T01:18:59Z")
> [@emcee2k](#): > > According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore-loser_law) only four states have neither “Sore-loser” laws, or same deadline registration laws. Presidential elections work completely differently, and there are many fewer states with sore loser laws for the presidential election. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/18 "2015-12-12T01:49:25Z")
No, the money and support wouldn’t be there. The big money men are perfectly fine with backing the warmonger Clinton this round. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/19 "2015-12-12T02:00:08Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > No, the money and support wouldn’t be there. The big money men are perfectly fine with backing the warmonger Clinton this round. As compared to all the warmonger GOP candidates? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158/20 "2015-12-12T15:22:42Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > It really doesn’t matter if Trump is the Republican candidate and not-Trump runs as an independent, or not-Trump is the nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Either way you have two candidates competing for the voters who won’t vote for the Democrat. > > I think a more entertaining imaginary exercise is “What if Sanders ran as an independent against Hillary and Trump?” Would he be the anti-Trump protest candidate and cost Hillary those voters? How about we go all-in? Clinton and (Rubio or Cruz or ???) are the traditional big party candidates, and both Sanders & Trump try their luck as independents. So we have a 4-way race with candidates arrayed from loony-left to middle-left to middle-right to loony-right. (For 2016 USA values of “loony” and “middle”; not that any other country would recognize the borders where we seem to. :eek:) Again fodder for another thread. Although this is so far-fetched as to be pure fantasy. The leverage applied to stop whoever would be the 4th independent from splitting that team’s vote would be incredible and irresistable. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-another-republican-ran-as-an-independent/740158.md?page=2)