# What (If Anything) Do Souring Relations Between USA And Russia Mean For Ed Snowden? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 28, 2015, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852 "2015-02-28T13:50:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2015, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/1 "2015-02-28T13:50:30Z")
Ed Snowden is currently living in Moscow, having been granted political asylum there. However, relations between Moscow and the West, particularly the U.S., are quickly souring. Is this likely to have any practical effect on Ed Snowden and his girlfriend, Lindsay Mills? I see this playing out in several different ways. One possibility would be that, as an American, he’s declared _persona non grata_ in Russia and his asylum is revoked, making him both homeless and stateless. Another possibility would be that Moscow simply decides they want nothing more to do with him, and he and his girlfriend are “disappeared.” A third possibility would be that he becomes something of a bargaining chip in relations between the two countries, and he goes from living in a nice Moscow apartment to being a political prisoner. A fourth possibility is that he’s extradited to the U.S. as part of some concession or another, meaning he’ll likely wind up in Guantanamo. Your thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![BOOM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c4cdca/32.png) [@BOOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BOOM)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2015, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/2 "2015-02-28T14:01:03Z")
Nothing changes - Putin loves the embarrassment Snowden stands for. Nor would Putin ever leave Snowden hanging in the wind. He wants to encourage this shit. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2015, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/3 "2015-02-28T14:11:51Z")
I think the OP overlooked the most likely possibility. Snowden is unpopular in the United States so his popularity in Russia will rise as relations between the two countries decline. ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2015, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/4 "2015-02-28T15:10:58Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Snowden is unpopular in the United States He’s definitely unpopular with the government. As far as the people, I don’t want to speculate on whether the split is 50/50 or 90/10, but at least some Americans (myself included) regard him as a hero. ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/5 "2015-03-04T13:52:02Z")
Well, it looks like homeboy is trying to [return](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-russia-usa-snowden-idUSKBN0LZ1U020150303). Maybe federal prison is better than regular Russia. Or maybe Russia is kicking him out. ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/6 "2015-03-04T14:30:28Z")
> [@Hermitian](#): > > Well, it looks like homeboy is trying to [return](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-russia-usa-snowden-idUSKBN0LZ1U020150303). He’s a fool. He’ll get a fair trial when monkeys fly out of my butt. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/7 "2015-03-04T14:57:11Z")
> [@Hermitian](#): > > Well, it looks like homeboy is trying to [return](http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/03/us-russia-usa-snowden-idUSKBN0LZ1U020150303). He’d have to be smoking crack to think that there was any possibility of making a deal. Who does he think he is, [a general](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/general-petraeus-could-avoid-jail-time-sharing-classified-information-mistress/) or something? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/8 "2015-03-04T15:51:20Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#): > > He’s a fool. He’ll get a fair trial when monkeys fly out of my butt. Why wouldn’t he get a fair trial? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/9 "2015-03-04T16:47:22Z")
In his mind, “a very good chance of being convicted of committing the crimes he’s admitted to” is synonymous with “unfair trial.” ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/10 "2015-03-04T17:38:41Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Why wouldn’t he get a fair trial? Because the minute he steps off the plane, he’ll be taken to another one bound for Guantanamo, where he’ll sit for the rest of his life without access to counsel or charges being filed against him. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/11 "2015-03-04T17:49:57Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#): > > Because the minute he steps off the plane, he’ll be taken to another one bound for Guantanamo, where he’ll sit for the rest of his life without access to counsel or charges being filed against him. Bullshit. Guantanamo has taken in no new inmates in nearly a decade, and it has _never_ taken in anyone who was arrested on US soil. Why would they make a special exception for Snowden when Dzokhar Tsarnaev, Bradley Manning, Richard Reid, John Walker Lindh, and every single other domestic terrorist/spy of the last 14 years was processed by the civilian criminal justice system? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/12 "2015-03-04T17:58:48Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#): > > Because the minute he steps off the plane, he’ll be taken to another one bound for Guantanamo, where he’ll sit for the rest of his life without access to counsel or charges being filed against him. I’ll bet you five lemurbucks that when/if Snowden ever returns to the United States that he is charged in the regular criminal justice system and will undergo a regular trial in front of a regular judge, and if convicted will serve time in a regular prison. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/13 "2015-03-04T17:59:19Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think the OP overlooked the most likely possibility. Snowden is unpopular in the United States so his popularity in Russia will rise as relations between the two countries decline. > [@HeyHomie](#): > > He’s definitely unpopular with the government. As far as the people, I don’t want to speculate on whether the split is 50/50 or 90/10, but at least some Americans (myself included) regard him as a hero. The clarification noted, “unpopular with the US government” is probably sufficient to translate into “popular with the Russian government” for the foreseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e79b87/32.png) [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Joker_and_the_Thief)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/14 "2015-03-04T18:01:28Z")
> [@HeyHomie](#): > > Because the minute he steps off the plane, he’ll be taken to another one bound for Guantanamo, where he’ll sit for the rest of his life without access to counsel or charges being filed against him. Do you actually believe this? Under Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, the US government can’t hold US citizens indefinitely without charge. ---
**Author:** ![get\_lives](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecb155/32.png) [@get\_lives](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/get_lives)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/15 "2015-03-04T18:04:02Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Why wouldn’t he get a fair trial? Why would he? ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/16 "2015-03-04T18:07:50Z")
> [@get\_lives](#): > > Why would he? Do you really believe the government would have to _cheat_ to get an impartial jury to convict Snowden of the crimes he’s publicly admitted to having committed? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/17 "2015-03-04T18:23:46Z")
I don’t understand this “fair trial” rhetoric. What Snowden should be negotiating for is a specific plea deal. But I doubt if Snowden would be willing to do a plea deal which would require more than 5 years or so in prison–while the federal government wouldn’t be willing to settle for less than 25 years (both numbers being actual time served). ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/18 "2015-03-04T19:10:11Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > I don’t understand this “fair trial” rhetoric. What Snowden should be negotiating for is a specific plea deal. But I doubt if Snowden would be willing to do a plea deal which would require more than 5 years or so in prison–while the federal government wouldn’t be willing to settle for less than 25 years (both numbers being actual time served). The problem (as I noted earlier) is that he’s not one of the elite who can get [much lighter punishments for much worse offenses](https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/03/03/petraeus-plea-deal-reveals-two-tier-justice-system-leaks/): > [@](#): > > David Petraeus, the former Army general and CIA director, admitted today that he gave highly-classified journals to his onetime lover and that he lied to the FBI about it. But he only has to plead guilty to a single misdemeanor that will not involve a jail sentence thanks to a deal with federal prosecutors. The deal is yet another example of a senior official treated leniently for the sorts of violations that lower-level officials are punished severely for. > > According to the plea deal, Petraeus, while leading American forces in Afghanistan, maintained eight notebooks that he filled with highly-sensitive information about the identities of covert officers, military strategy, intelligence capabilities and his discussions with senior government officials, including President Obama. Rather than handing over these “Black Books,” as the plea agreement calls them, to the Department of Defense when he retired from the military in 2011 to head the CIA, Petraeus retained them at his home and lent them, for several days, to Paula Broadwell, his authorized biographer and girlfriend… From one particularly insightful comment-thread post at the link: > [@](#): > > For leaking classified information: > > 1. Enlisted soldier – Manning – 35 years > 2. Skilled technical staff – Snowden – 10 years (est. plea deal) > 3. Middle Management – Kiriakou – 2.5 years > 4. Sr. Management – Petraeus – Suspended sentence > 5. President – no charges > > Of course it’s also possible to argue that sentences are inversely proportional to damage to national security. > > 1. Diplomatic chit chat – No damage (some ruffled feathers) – Manning > 2. Powerpoint training presentations – Minimal damage (change data collection code names) – Snowden > 3. Name of a covert agent – Slight damage (reassign the agent) – Kiriakou > 4. Methods of operation in war zone – Moderate damage (devise new counter-insurgency techniques) – Petraeus > 5. Name of Seal Team 6 leader, Details of covert special operations – Significant damage – President ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/19 "2015-03-04T19:11:56Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Bullshit. Guantanamo has taken in no new inmates in nearly a decade, and it has _never_ taken in anyone who was arrested on US soil. Why would they make a special exception for Snowden when Dzokhar Tsarnaev, Bradley Manning, Richard Reid, John Walker Lindh, and every single other domestic terrorist/spy of the last 14 years was processed by the civilian criminal justice system? My apologies. I was being hyperbolic. Regardless, I don’t believe Snowden will get a fair trial, mainly because the record of people who have blown the whistle on crimes of the U.S. government speaks for itself. The only person to do time for the Guantanamo torture program is the guy who blew the whistle on it. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2015, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852/20 "2015-03-04T19:23:37Z")
> [@](#): > > Regardless, I don’t believe Snowden will get a fair trial It’s a slam dunk case. Snowden has admitted to the entire world that he deliberately stole and leaked the documents. A prosecutor couldn’t in a million years dream of having an easier guilty verdict land on their desk. Why would the government _need_ to cheat? It would frankly be ridiculous for him to even _insist_ on a trial unless he really wanted to make a martyr of himself (and I mean literally, since espionage is a capital offense.) If he were to return to the US and be placed in custody, he’d cop a plea. > [@HeyHomie](#): > > The only person to do time for the Guantanamo torture program is the guy who blew the whistle on it. That may have something to do with the fact that “the Guantanamo torture program” was not illegal, but divulging classified information about it _is._ [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-anything-do-souring-relations-between-usa-and-russia-mean-for-ed-snowden/713852.md?page=2)