If it looks like the regime is going to collapse they would most likely intervene, to ensure it is replaced by one that is sympathetic to them (and not the US). That collapse could be due to an internal coup or an invasion from the south (but in the latter case hundreds of thousands would most like be dead before anyone comes close to toppling the regime)
As several others have mentioned there is no way China is going to annex north Korea, they are going to make sure whoever replaces the current regime is in their political orbit and not the America’s or anyone else’s.
Pretty much this. And, contrary to what folks seem to think, I have serious doubts if the PLA and friends could carry it off. It would almost certainly turn into a cluster fuck of epic proportions. Even if not, it would be a brutal and bloody war that would leave huge numbers of North Koreans dead, so not sure how this would be preferable in any way to a South Korean/US invasion, which would leave, you know, huge numbers of North Koreans dead.
Might I ask what exactly China has to fear so much from having a “US ally on its doorstep?” We hear this line so often but just what will happen? A united Korea will never invade China. Sure, it might make it easier to gather intelligence on China (SIGINT, etc.) but there are numerous countries gathering intel on China all the time (Taiwan and Mongolia have SIGINT outposts sucking up data all the time, IIRC) and China is already neighbor to numerous US allies (South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and maybe you could consider Vietnam and India to be hostile to China in some ways.)
I don’t think they fear it from an invasion or war standpoint, but it’s useful to the CCP to have a nation state on their border where their own citizens know, for a fact, that things are much, much more shitty than they have it in the home country. A unified Korea (in a decade or two, admittedly) would potentially be an economic powerhouse and demonstrate that the BS the CCP pedals about China and the Chinese people not being ready for democracy would be a serious blow.
It changes their sphere of influence. They want to be the dominant power in the region. Hegemony is very important to them, although they would say that US or South Korean control of North Korea is an attempt at hegemony by the West it’s all the same thing, they have a sphere of influence, we have one, they don’t like any expansion of ours that reduces theirs.
I could possibly see China, in the case of an complete internal collapse within N. Korea, agreeing to an ‘occupation for the protection of the citizens of the People’s Republic’ with the USA and South Korea (and perhaps Japan), in the style of Germany post-WWII and Japan under McArthur. And that would lead to a 10-20 year time frame for China to either find ways to ‘prop up’ N. Korea or do a deal with S. Korea regarding the border (and getting the USA out of there).
Unlikely because it depends on an internal collapse, which has been predicted for decades but still doesn’t seem to be in the future.
But annexation? No way, it would cause way more problems than it would solve for China.
Time will tell. What it will tell us is still not known…
I don’t think this is a plausible motivation. China isn’t a totalitarian hellhole where they’ve all been brainwashed into thinking Americans and Europeans and South Koreans are scrounging around in the dirt, fighting over the last remaining rat for dinner. Brands from all three regions are prevalent in China. The scope and development of our economies is not a closely guarded secret. I doubt a factory worker there thinks they’re manufacturing iPhone X devices for the flashlights so we can drive out said rats.
I suspect you’d find Chinese people have a more accurate view of the state of the world than you think. It is not a free country by any stretch of the imagination, but I suspect much of the ignorance of the rest of the world can be attributed to willfull nationalistic thought. Seems like many in the United States are willingly bounding down such a road themselves, so I’d consider the differences to be one of degree rather than absolute.
I don’t see that being able to see a reunified Korea over the river changes very much. The “sphere of influence” explanation is far more plausible.
If China could pull this off without too much collateral damage, it would be fantastic. For everyone. Well, except China, but that’s what you get for taking over another country.
While I’m sure that China would do something like this if they could, the fact is that Kim Jong-un has made a practice of pitting senior miiltary and political officials against one another, removing them for real or manufactured treason, and generally making sure that no one is in a position to challenge his authority, a strategy he doubtless learned from his father, Kim Jong-il. This assures that no military official is in position long enough to establish a successful coup. China also does not want enough of a power vacuum that South Korea (backed by the United States) or another power could move in and take control of the peninsula in the wake of an unsuccessful or weak coup. Also, Korea has been the object of invasion and subjugation by successive waves of adjacent powers for a over a thousand years from the Khitai to the Chinese and Japanese. Just because North Korea is a client state of China does not mean that there is not significant cultural enmity between the nations, and with or without Kim Jong-un North Korea is not going to tolerate being a puppet as long as they have the means to maintain independence.
There seems to be a broad assumption that just because the United States is the largest trading partner with China that we are somehow allied in effect if not in fact. The reality is that China has stalwartly resisted Western influence and presence in the entire Asian sphere of influence. The Chinese view themselves as the rightful preeminient power in Asia, unjustly taken from them by the British, Japanese, and later Americans, and they consider the United States as a global superpower is a transient phase like the British before them, while the Chinese history of successful imperial ambition is evidence of their eventual destiny to return to power. To that end, the Chinese have backed and funded various resistances to Western influence and occupation (in Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, and elsewhere), constructed artificial islands in the South China Sea to claim sovereignty over what was formally international waters, and have continued a pointless fued over the independence of the US-supported Taiwan even though the island isn’t historically cultural Chinese territory and isn’t strategically all that critical either in resources or location. The main reason China has backed the North Korean regime is to embarass and goad the United States into the position of taking action that would weaken alliances with it’s allies in Asia, a strategy that has worked to some degree (and that publically fueding with North Korea has only worsened).
China doesn’t want an open war in the Koreas, but it also doesn’t want unification or US occupation, either. Nor does China want to invade and occupy North Korea (which has few enough resources and arable land to make it not worth the bother). North Korea provides for China a buffer zone in a strategically sensitive location and a convenience foil. I’m sure they’re just as unhappy with Jong-un’s increasingly capable nuclear ambitions as everyone else, but they’re not in a position to shut it down without destabilizing that relationship, and they certainly aren’t going to annex North Korea.
Well, sure they do…that’s why they have such a free and open internet, allow for large scale criticism of their own government and a free press! Oh…wait. They don’t have those things. And a lot of their own people don’t trust what their own government says BECAUSE they don’t have those things, and they know that their government covers up a lot, especially corruption within the CCP. Which is why having North Korea just across the border is helpful. It gives them a good sense that, yeah, the grass IS greener (even if more polluted) over in China than in North Korea, and as restrictive as the CCP can be, it’s not nearly as bad as that of lil’ Kimmy and friends. But if lil’ Kimmy v3.0 and his merry band were gone, and if across the border was South Korea writ large, well…it would be an issue for the CCP, since it would be hard for them to handwave the contrast. It’s hard for them to do that NOW.
Then you don’t know that much about China, or have bought into the propaganda. Is it the only motivation? No, not at all. My WAG is the biggest motivation for why they wouldn’t do as the OP says is the hordes of North Korean’s that would pour across their northern border and the major headache that would cause (besides the fact that it would hurt them internationally, would be a major expense and, frankly, I have my doubts their military is up for it…oh, they would win in the end, but winning after showing how weak they are and taking the sorts of losses they would take would hurt them internally as well as externally). But it’s definitely one of the reasons they wouldn’t want the south to unify the country. Another reason is that friendly nations with borders to China are getting a bit thin on the ground, and a unified Korea under a major US ally would be another step to the Chinese in encirclement. There are just a lot of downsides from the Chinese perspective of anything that changes the status quo.
There isn’t any one reason, and the ‘sphere of influence’ idea posted previously is yet another one. You also have vest interests by certain factions of the CCP. There isn’t one silver bullet answer here, but a bunch of small ones as to why China has and continues to support the status quo wrt regime change in the north.
If China didn’t try to annex North Korea when there actually was a shooting war there, and China wasn’t even a member of the UN, let alone accepted as one of the great powers, both politically and in terms of international economic relationships, why would they do so in a situation where both they and Russia would see the kind of event OP hypothesises as a perfect opportunity to seize some moral high ground internationally? They might not even need to move in their own troops in support of the North Koreans - they have plenty of economic and financial tools to exert pressure on the West directly, just as Eisenhower did to the UK and France over Suez.
That is, of course, to assume someone in Washington would be so damn stupid as to attempt such a thing in the first place. Hypothetically speaking, of course…
I think that this is probably the most likely scenario for removing the Kims from power relatively peacefully. There are enough members of the North Korean upper crust that think of China as their patron that if China removed Kim, they could maintain order with a military dictatorship backed by Beijing, especially if Beijing reverted back to its cold war levels of state support.
China’s expensive. Source: I’m involved in manufacturing in China, and we’re largely starting to favor India as a low-cost source. Certainly China is still cheaper than, say, the United States, but India is cheaper by far. If China were able to exploit (in the true sense, not negative sense) North Korean labor to China’s advantage, it would benefit China.
This is what I don’t understand…Why doesn’t China welcome North Koreans?
Instead, China persecutes any NK defectors who survive the border crossing, and returns them to NK .
Why not open the border, and allow N Koreans to enter China , the way Germany accepts Turkish “guest workers”?
China could grant them work visas (but not citizenship), and pay them a minimum wage far less than regular Chinese workers.
There are “ghost towns” in China–entire cities standing empty of residents. China could set up one of those cities an industrial center, where “guest workers” would be “invited”(i.e restricted) to live within its borders and work in businesses owned by Chinese citizens. Allow them basic humanitarian rights unheard of in NK, and provide plenty of free food., Pay them more than they could earn back home in rural areas of N.Korea , and give them dormitories or apartments with unheard of luxuries–electricity, a refrigerator, and unlimited amounts of free rice, with a salary high enough to purchase meat and send the remaining money back home to their family. Residents of Pyongyang may not want to leave, but the starving peasants in rural N. Korea would consider such a life in China as luxury.
Now, you ask me…why would China want to do this? Two reasons:
They would get a low-cost labor force, good for the Chinese economy in the immediate future.
But more importantly–in the not-so-distant future…they would help undermine the Kim dictatorship from within, and possibly save the planet from nuclear war. Kim may only have 5 or 10 nukes right now, but in the future he will have hundreds. And he will sell them to every terrorist group or drug cartel who has a few million dollars.
All the talk and analysis about international political power games , zones of influence and and buffer zones, etc will be meaningless when nukes become available to terrorists and organized crime.
The german program ended over forty years ago, and the challenges of the gaestarbeiter program and the similar things in the comintern are doubtless lessons for the PRC.