# What if no Repulbican Front runner ever emerges **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426 "2015-07-17T16:56:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/21 "2015-07-18T03:19:50Z")
Not totally out of the realm of possibility, but if we’re going to go for Romney, why not Bob Dole? He’s immortal and reasonable and funny. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/22 "2015-07-18T03:46:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Not totally out of the realm of possibility, but if we’re going to go for Romney, why not Bob Dole? He’s immortal and reasonable and funny. Age aside, Dole is too smart to want much to do with today’s GOP. Besides, his positions likely seem left-wing to most of the current party. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/23 "2015-07-18T04:27:36Z")
I don’t think he is up to it physically. IIRC, he has some serious health issues. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/24 "2015-07-18T04:29:40Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I don’t think he is up to it physically. IIRC, he has some serious health issues. Oh c’mon! He’s 91 but he’s a _spirited_ 91. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/25 "2015-07-18T05:17:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > All of this is good news for the Draft Romney movement. When I first started saying this, I was joking, now, not so sure. I actually think Romney would have a solid chance of winning. If learning on the job is the best type of training, who on the Democratic side is more experienced at being a presidential nominee than Mittens? The debates, messaging, the grueling pace, the stump speeches, quickly adapting to world/national events. He was going up against an experienced presidential nominee in 2012, and got his ass handed to him. Now he’d be the presidential nominee with the most experience at being a presidential nominee, and I think he’d probably be the best prepared to win. Not the best president, but the best presidential campaigner. Shudder. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/26 "2015-07-18T05:24:30Z")
Bush is the unofficial front runner at the moment - admittedly long before any votes have been cast. But if he doesn’t have it secured by the convention, it will mean he has dropped from where he was expected to be. And that means he’s unlikely to be the convention’s choice. I don’t see them picking Romney. He lost in 2012. Modern politics doesn’t encourage second acts. The last presidential nominee who got a second chance was Nixon in 1968 - and his 1960 defeat was razor thin. And Nixon ran as the “new” Nixon. Romney is essentially offering the same thing that just lost four years ago. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/27 "2015-07-18T06:29:30Z")
Oh, I’m not thinking about them\* picking\* Romney, more like running out of options. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/28 "2015-07-18T06:47:55Z")
Republicans have lots of options. It’s Democrats that don’t have any. If the Democrats had options they wouldn’t tie their wagon to someone whose flaws are so well known and understood. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/29 "2015-07-18T09:31:39Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Oh, I’m not thinking about them\* picking\* Romney, more like running out of options. Except they already have their “We’re out of options” option. It’s Jeb. Romney was It last time, and McCain was It the time before. This generation of the GOP has been reduced to iterating through the last of the non-crazies who will still consent to be associated with them on a national stage. They have little to gain by going _backwards_ through that process; none of the demographic shifts have gone backwards, so why would any candidate be more successful the second time around? So they have a new Bush, one who drops into Spanish at the drop of a _sombrero_ but who is still white enough to draw the Tea Party, and everyone else has some fatal flaw, like being a woman or having a vowel and the end of their surname or being suffused with a pervading stench of death. I’m sure you have some great zingers for Romney but it just isn’t going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/30 "2015-07-18T13:02:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans have lots of options. It’s Democrats that don’t have any. If the Democrats had options they wouldn’t tie their wagon to someone whose flaws are so well known and understood. I see no reason to believe that any significant number of Democrats are unhappy with their options. Your attempts to analyze the motivations and desires of Democrats, as always, continue to fail utterly. As I’ve advised before, this is a sub-topic of politics that you should not attempt any more. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/31 "2015-07-18T14:24:10Z")
dracoi wrote: Even with 16 candidates, you expect 15 of them to say something stupid enough to leave only one real contender after 10 months have elapsed. Given that we’re talking about Republicans here, I fully expect that all of them will say things that most of us here will put in the stupid box, so that’s not going to do it. Still, somebody’s going to wash out when you look at multiple candidates appealing to the same subgroup of pubs. (Huckabee, Santorum, for instance). Maybe the way to read the tea leaves on this is to list the various subgroups and try to work it down to a “final four(or five)” that could make a brokered convention a reality. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/32 "2015-07-18T14:30:54Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Oh c’mon! He’s 91 but he’s a _spirited_ 91. And so is Pappy Bush! He’s still eligible to run, and everybody loves him. Bush/Dole in 2016! ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/33 "2015-07-18T19:59:39Z")
Every 4 years Exapno comes along and pours cold water on our dreams. Curse you Exapno! > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Conventions today are totally scripted infomercials. That’s all they are. They exist to provide a national coronation of the pre-determined candidate. A brokered convention would be a sign that the party has died. Literally died. Dead and gone, with a new party needing to form. > > So, no chance. Zero. > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Barring the political equivalent of a dinosaur-killing meteor strike, the chances are zero, not close to zero. That’s exactly why the [primaries and caucuses don’t name all the delegates](http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/superdelegates.html). If there is any doubt remaining by January 1, 2016, I will be very surprised. Bush has won the invisible primary. Rubio is too young. Walker had excellent positioning (far right views, midwest demeanor), [but has flubbed the execution](http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2015/07/scott-walker-starting-look-loser). Maybe next time. I’m wondering whether Kasich will have plausible funding totals: if so he could be a 2015 dark horse, seemingly coming out of nowhere. I don’t think the chances are zero. If the field was split and the frontrunner was forced to drop out when he had 35 or 40% of the delegates, things could get interesting. Even then though, America has telephones, video conferencing and aircraft today. A deal could be cut and the convention scripted during the spring. But that would still be a “Brokered convention”, provided you include scare quotes. The odds of a publicly unexpected health, skeleton or disqualifying gaffe are certainly above 1% over the course of the election and probably over 1% during the critical March-April period of the election year. Not zero and not meteorite-strike near-zero. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/34 "2015-07-18T21:30:16Z")
For any party, wouldn’t the traditional thing to do — as with private organizations who can’t agree on a chairman — would be to re-appoint the last full holder of the office ? Either for another term, or until they can get an agreed-on choice ? The Middle East had better behave itself. Palin — Trump 2016 ! ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/35 "2015-07-18T23:07:19Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Every 4 years Exapno comes along and pours cold water on our dreams. Curse you Exapno! Hey. How else do I have any fun for the next 18 months? > [@](#): > > The odds of a publicly unexpected health, skeleton or disqualifying gaffe are certainly above 1% over the course of the election and probably over 1% during the critical March-April period of the election year. Not zero and not meteorite-strike near-zero. Wuss. What glory do you get for that? It’s zero, I say! I dare you, reality, to prove me wrong! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/36 "2015-07-18T23:48:31Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Oh, I’m not thinking about them\* picking\* Romney, more like running out of options. The last problem that Republicans face this election is running out of options. If they lost every one of the first dozen candidates, they would just pick somebody out of the second dozen. ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2015, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/37 "2015-07-19T01:29:12Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Some TV pundit…who’s name escapes me, swan’s neck, girlish giggle, mind like a steel trap…observed that Fox Gnaws is making a metric buttload of money on this. You know, I am most emphatically not a conspiracy theorist, but… …but my wife watches a lot of MSNBC, and this commentator in particular, and it seems to me that the commentator of whom you speak is presently unable to talk about much of anything besides the GOP Fox debate, and although she mostly makes fun of it, they say there’s no such thing as bad publicity…and I wonder, if she weren’t talking about it All. The. Time., who else \*would \*be? She seems to be almost single-handedly focusing attention on this upcoming event… …and so, if I were a conspiracy theorist, I might find myself wondering, is she perhaps secretly in the pay of Fox? (Note, as if we needed conformation, that she essentially never mentions the second, non-Fox, debate, even though it has been scheduled and will be following what amounts to the same basic rules.) Well, as I said, I am not a conspiracy theorist. _But if I were_… ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/38 "2015-07-20T04:10:38Z")
What if it isn’t a conspiracy _per se_, but just some dirty business _a la_, say, Mad Men? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/39 "2015-07-20T07:21:57Z")
If you want a conspiracy theory, try this one: candidates like Trump, Cruz, and Paul are essentially sacrificial lambs. They have no chance of being nominated much less winning. But the Republican Party encourages candidates like this to run. Because after listen to a few months of the utter craziness that somebody like Donald Trump says, the stuff that the next wave of candidates sounds relatively rational by comparison. In a sane world, somebody like Rick Santorum would be way out on the fringe. But after listening to Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum sounds reassuringly normal. Basically these extreme nuts serve the purpose of raising the bar high enough that the regular nuts can easily walk under it. The regular nuts benefit by appearing less crazy. And the extreme nuts benefit by getting a national stage to act out on. Crazy as he may be, Rand Paul is no longer just a Senator - he can claim he has Presidential potential. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2015, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/40 "2015-07-20T08:54:49Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Basically these extreme nuts serve the purpose of raising the bar high enough that the regular nuts can easily walk under it. The regular nuts benefit by appearing less crazy. And the extreme nuts benefit by getting a national stage to act out on. Crazy as he may be, Rand Paul is no longer just a Senator - he can claim he has Presidential potential. Unfortunately, in today’s Republican Party, the actual response will have all the other candidates falllng over themselves using trampolines to clear that bar with ease. The GOP likes winners. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426.md?page=3)