# What if no Repulbican Front runner ever emerges **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426 "2015-07-17T16:56:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/41 "2015-08-03T02:04:02Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Barring the political equivalent of a dinosaur-killing meteor strike, the chances are zero, not close to zero. That’s exactly why the [primaries and caucuses don’t name all the delegates](http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/superdelegates.html). > People keep talking as if modern conventions are subject to chance. They are not. The winner will be obvious months before and the RNC will work - quite properly - to ensure that no drama of any undesirable kind occurs at the convention. … > > If there is any doubt remaining by January 1, 2016, I will be very surprised. You are correct that the Republican Party does not want a brokered convention and they’ve set up the rules to avoid exactly that. They don’t want a replay of Romney’s spring 2012 game of wack-o-mole either. Too bad wishes ain’t horses. The Republican Party is weak and the conservative media has very different incentives. The invisible primary has settled upon Bush vs. Walker, with an emphasis on the former. But Bush is currently in [3rd place](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) and Walker isn’t an especially strong candidate. Combined they poll at 26%. Most of the candidates have priorites other than winning the Presidency: it will be hard to persuade them to step aside. Together the apresidential candidates poll at 47% and that total does not include Christie, Perry or Jindal. Put it another way. Would Trump, Cruz, Paul and Huckabee like to star at a brokered convention? Oh yes, very much so. Reince Priebus will do everything in his power to head off such a scenario. But then again, he would also like avoid a Trump 3rd party bid. That would be even worse. A lot should be clearer by August 20th. By that point the post-debate polls will have solidified and we will see if Trump has faltered or whether the entertainment value of this horse and pony show will bust the block. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/42 "2015-08-03T02:50:45Z")
My hunch is that the polls you cite are actually good for Bush. Trump is not going to be the nominee. What he’s doing best is undercutting all the others in media attention, and that’s the only thing that drives polling a year before the convention. When his bubble bursts, who’s going to be left? Walker and Bush. Rubio, the only other possibility, has been badly hurt. He may come back if Trump flames out early but that’s not the way the establishment is betting. Bush is piling up the cash. Not from small doners, but from [billionaires](http://www.wsj.com/articles/jeb-bush-super-pac-rakes-in-cash-from-billionaires-1438372919). He has an amazing lead in PAC cash. Walker has the Koch brothers but hasn’t shown any signs yet that he can multiply their effect. The Republican establishment counts for more than the tea party. They obviously don’t want Trump as the face of the party. They’re backing Bush now so that he’ll be ahead when it really counts. The only thing polls can you today is who’s on the outside looking in, not who’s going to win. Pay attention to the big money. It’s important for Democrats; it’s the only thing for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/43 "2015-08-03T03:18:37Z")
I can see easily see Cruz and Walker rotating into Trump’s position. Walker’s job is to rotate in when people are actually voting. For Cruz it doesn’t matter as he mostly wants to build up a mailing list. But probabilistically, I have to agree: Bush’s funding total crush the opposition’s. But let’s take a look at the 2012 polling - here’s the average of 2 polls from early August, 2011. [INDENT]Romney 19 Perry 16.5 Bachmann 7.5 Paul 7.5 Cain 5 Gingrich 3.5 Huntsman 3 Santorum 2.5 [/INDENT] Compare to: [INDENT]Trump 20.8 Walker 13.3 Bush 12.5 Carson 6.2 Cruz 6 Huckabee 6 Rubio 6 Paul 5.8 Kasich 3.5 Christie 3 Perry 2.5 Jindal 1.5 Santorum 1.5 Fiorina 0.7 Graham 0.5 [/INDENT] Actually I can spin that either way. Bush is trailing behind where Romney was in 2011. But Romney nonetheless was only pulling in 19 percent of the vote, which emphasizes, well, the irrelevance of polling at this juncture. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/44 "2015-08-03T03:22:04Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > My hunch is that the polls you cite are actually good for Bush. > > Trump is not going to be the nominee. What he’s doing best is undercutting all the others in media attention, and that’s the only thing that drives polling a year before the convention. When his bubble bursts, who’s going to be left? … You are [not alone](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/03/us/politics/jeb-bushs-camp-counts-blessings-of-donald-trumps-surge-in-the-gop.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) in this assessment. > [@NYT 8/2/15](#): > > Donald J. Trump’s surge in the polls has been met with barely concealed delight by Jeb Bush and his supporters. Mr. Trump’s bombastic ways have simultaneously made it all but impossible for those vying to be the alternative to Mr. Bush to emerge, and easier for Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, to position himself as the serious and thoughtful alternative to a candidate who has upended the early nominating process. … Privately, Mr. Bush’s top strategists, who have become increasingly fixated on halting Mr. Walker, believe that Mr. Trump is nothing short of a godsend. That is because Mr. Trump is drawing support from voters — blue-collar, less-educated, more conservative — who are unlikely ever to support Mr. Bush but are essential to Mr. Walker’s candidacy. > > What complicates matters for Mr. Walker, and any of the other Republicans vying for that restive conservative base, is that they will have difficulty matching the bluster or promises of Mr. Trump because he does not operate within the conventional boundaries of political discourse. … ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/45 "2015-08-03T15:22:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > You are [not alone](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/03/us/politics/jeb-bushs-camp-counts-blessings-of-donald-trumps-surge-in-the-gop.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news) in this assessment. The mainstream media takes their cues from from the _Times_, and the \*Times \*takes its cues from me. It’s a burden, I tell ya. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/46 "2015-08-03T16:01:06Z")
Although, I will bow to the consensus’ wisdom (which is larger than my own) that there won’t be a brokered convnetion, there is one difference this year vs previous years that might keep things interesting until late in the game. In previous elections candidates who were behind after the first few primaries, found that their resources dried up and so were forced to drop out. This time around having a single billionaire in your pocket is enough to keep going. So unlike before we may see more candidates holding on to the end. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/47 "2015-08-03T16:01:44Z")
> **[Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Partner](https://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?id=3817)** > > Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Partner ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/48 "2015-08-03T21:00:37Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The mainstream media takes their cues from from the _Times_, and the \*Times \*takes its cues from me. Me too: 😃 > [@Donald Trump announces presidential run](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-announces-presidential-run/722679/382): > > Ok, let’s look at the beneficiaries of this troll: > > Hillary and the Democrats - because he makes the GOP field look ridiculous. > > GOP Presidential crazies - because Trump makes them look sane by comparison. Overton window! > > Jeb Bush - because he is the frontrunner and Trump (a nonviable candidate) absorbs the media oxygen of his challengers. … > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Although, I will bow to the consensus’ wisdom (which is larger than my own) that there won’t be a brokered convnetion, there is one difference this year vs previous years that might keep things interesting until late in the game. In previous elections candidates who were behind after the first few primaries, found that their resources dried up and so were forced to drop out. This time around having a single billionaire in your pocket is enough to keep going. So unlike before we may see more candidates holding on to the end. Here’s the scenario. Trump has deep pockets, and a small core of fervent supporters, so he won’t drop out. Bush has $100 billion in the bank [and net favorability ratings only 10 percentage points higher than Trump](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/). Bush won’t drop out until he burns through his cash. Under such circumstances, you could have a rotating cast of #1 winners, which would lead to a fragmented tally of delegates. Meanwhile Walker, who lacks organization, money raising skills and campaign skills is #1 in terms of net favorability and in 2nd place overall. If this were a normal election, Trump would just drop out once he hit his ceiling. But because his motives are murky, we’re not sure what he’d do. The question is would drop out? Here’s a list of remaining candidates, along with their current polling: Rubio 6% Jindal 2% Perry 2% Kasich 4% Christie 3% Gilmore 0% Graham 1% Pataki 1% Total: 19%. Ok, so 19% might drop out if they think they have little chance of winning the nomination. But the following lack such incentives, since they are running for other reasons: Carson 7% Fiorina 2% Huckabee 5% Santorum 1% Paul 5% Total: 20%. Add in Trump and that makes 40% of the first choice votes devoted to candidates whose prime motivation does not involve the Presidency. Result: a fragmented slate of candidates who win thin pluralities in various states. There are 4 caveats to the above. Firstly TPTB don’t want a brokered convention and they don’t want to nominate Trump. (Though Trump has an ace in his sleave: he can threaten to run a third party candidacy.) Secondly, superdelegates make up 17% of the total. Thirdly, some of these candidates had their day in the sun in 2012: it’s not clear whether Santorum or Huckabee can secure another bump in the polls. Maybe some will take a second look at Perry. Maybe. Fourthly, it’s very early so those totals are soft. If Trump steps aside, then Cruz et al don’t have the leverage to spoil the process: it becomes a race between Bush, Rubio and Walker, with the last 2 willing to drop out if their nomination prospects become untenable. Trump holds all the cards. Is he a cuddly Daddy Warbucks or a mean Bond villain? Who can say? [sup]1[/sup] [sup]1[/sup]I’m kidding, mostly. Trump will probably peak before New Hampshire. Polling numbers are ridiculously soft now. The problem is that is not a certainty. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/49 "2015-08-03T21:16:07Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Bush has $100 billion in the bank [and net favorability ratings only 10 percentage points higher than Trump](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/). Bush won’t drop out until he burns through his cash. Solid point MfM, but it’s $100 million, not $100 billion. Bush can make big ad buys: he doesn’t have quite enough money to buy whole networks. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/50 "2015-08-03T22:33:48Z")
With $100 billion he could still be running campaign ads when Chesea Clinton is inaugurated. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2015, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/51 "2015-08-10T19:28:50Z")
Only a few candidates have the funds to ride out a slump. Jeb and Trump can stay in til the end, for sure. But if, Scott Walker or Ben Carson or Chris Christie can’t get a few solid primary wins, donors will give up on them, they’ll run out of money at some point and will HAVE to bow out. And then somebody who’s left in the race will pick up their votes and end up with a comfortable lead before the first ballot at the convention. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2015, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/52 "2015-08-10T22:51:44Z")
Well, if anything the debate seems to have created more contenders, not fewer. In Iowa, there are now several candidates with 10% or more support and none with over 20%. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/53 "2015-08-19T05:25:20Z")
This is discussed at 538 today. [INDENT]natesilver: OK, let’s posit three degrees of ugliness. 1. An actual brokered convention. 2. The nomination is decided before the convention, but there’s genuine uncertainty about who the nominee will be after the last primaries. 3. No candidate has technically clinched the nomination as of the date of the last primary, but the writing’s on the wall. [/INDENT] To me all 3 count as a “Brokered convention”: number one is beyond my wildest dreams. The subjective odds (no modeling) of one of those scenarios occurring is WAGed at 40-80% by 538’s journalists. Number 1 has 5-10% odds. > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Conventions today are totally scripted infomercials. That’s all they are. They exist to provide a national coronation of the pre-determined candidate. A brokered convention would be a sign that the party has died. Literally died. Dead and gone, with a new party needing to form. > > So, no chance. Zero. If you must forecast, forecast often. I think the party could survive a literal death even with option number 1. But it’s also true that the party establishment may have lost their grip on the mechanics. The normal consolidating process, whereby weaker candidates drop off one by one may no longer apply. Zombie campaigns by Santorum and Perry can continue for a while, backed by Super-Pac money that has no legal limits or disclosure rules. Furthermore, Trump, Carson, Cruz and Huckabee together break 50%. Trump himself has actually widened his base: for 24% he’s the first choice and moreover [for 14% he is the second choice](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/cnn-donald-trump-leads-august), more than any other candidate. Opinions are soft in the August before the election year. But the establishment frontrunner is weak and it’s hard to see where Republican wacko support will go. More: [I link to article on the shape of the electorate, the mismatch with the Republican donor base, and Trump’s pursuit of a big voting block](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18613466&postcount=1884). ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/54 "2015-08-19T16:57:56Z")
I think the new thing happening in the last few election cycles is that goofy loser candidates don’t drop out any more. They’re not running for president, they’re hawking their books and speaking dates and Fox News appearances. In the old days guys running at 5% would drop out. Nowadays what’s the incentive to drop out? ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/55 "2015-08-20T16:01:28Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Conventions today are totally scripted infomercials. That’s all they are. They exist to provide a national coronation of the pre-determined candidate. A brokered convention would be a sign that the party has died. Literally died. Dead and gone, with a new party needing to form. > > So, no chance. Zero. First the New York Times follows my lead, then the Boston Globe, then Nate Silver. [Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/) > [@](#): > > If Trump made it this far, the Republican Party would go to extraordinary lengths to avoid nominating him. In “The Party Decides” view, parties are basically looking for two things from their nominees: They want them to be reliable (meaning, they can be counted on to enact the Republican agenda once in office), and they want them to be electable (meaning, they can win in November). It’s hard to think of a candidate who does worse on those two measures than Trump. He’s exceptionally unpopular among independent voters. But he also has a [checkered political past](http://www.ontheissues.org/Donald_Trump.htm) that includes once having supported abortion rights and universal health care. For the Republican Party, he’s the worst of all possible worlds. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/56 "2015-08-20T16:30:14Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > I think the new thing happening in the last few election cycles is that goofy loser candidates don’t drop out any more. They’re not running for president, they’re hawking their books and speaking dates and Fox News appearances. In the old days guys running at 5% would drop out. Nowadays what’s the incentive to drop out? There may not be much incentive to drop out, but once it’s clear you can’t win, your donors disappear and you run out of money to carry on. When you can no longer pay your aides and can no longer buy advertising, you’re done. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426.md?page=2)