# What if no Repulbican Front runner ever emerges **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 17, 2015, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426 "2015-07-17T16:56:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 48
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2015, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426/48 "2015-08-03T21:00:37Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The mainstream media takes their cues from from the _Times_, and the \*Times \*takes its cues from me. Me too: 😃 > [@Donald Trump announces presidential run](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-trump-announces-presidential-run/722679/382): > > Ok, let’s look at the beneficiaries of this troll: > > Hillary and the Democrats - because he makes the GOP field look ridiculous. > > GOP Presidential crazies - because Trump makes them look sane by comparison. Overton window! > > Jeb Bush - because he is the frontrunner and Trump (a nonviable candidate) absorbs the media oxygen of his challengers. … > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Although, I will bow to the consensus’ wisdom (which is larger than my own) that there won’t be a brokered convnetion, there is one difference this year vs previous years that might keep things interesting until late in the game. In previous elections candidates who were behind after the first few primaries, found that their resources dried up and so were forced to drop out. This time around having a single billionaire in your pocket is enough to keep going. So unlike before we may see more candidates holding on to the end. Here’s the scenario. Trump has deep pockets, and a small core of fervent supporters, so he won’t drop out. Bush has $100 billion in the bank [and net favorability ratings only 10 percentage points higher than Trump](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-the-nickelback-of-gop-candidates/). Bush won’t drop out until he burns through his cash. Under such circumstances, you could have a rotating cast of #1 winners, which would lead to a fragmented tally of delegates. Meanwhile Walker, who lacks organization, money raising skills and campaign skills is #1 in terms of net favorability and in 2nd place overall. If this were a normal election, Trump would just drop out once he hit his ceiling. But because his motives are murky, we’re not sure what he’d do. The question is would drop out? Here’s a list of remaining candidates, along with their current polling: Rubio 6% Jindal 2% Perry 2% Kasich 4% Christie 3% Gilmore 0% Graham 1% Pataki 1% Total: 19%. Ok, so 19% might drop out if they think they have little chance of winning the nomination. But the following lack such incentives, since they are running for other reasons: Carson 7% Fiorina 2% Huckabee 5% Santorum 1% Paul 5% Total: 20%. Add in Trump and that makes 40% of the first choice votes devoted to candidates whose prime motivation does not involve the Presidency. Result: a fragmented slate of candidates who win thin pluralities in various states. There are 4 caveats to the above. Firstly TPTB don’t want a brokered convention and they don’t want to nominate Trump. (Though Trump has an ace in his sleave: he can threaten to run a third party candidacy.) Secondly, superdelegates make up 17% of the total. Thirdly, some of these candidates had their day in the sun in 2012: it’s not clear whether Santorum or Huckabee can secure another bump in the polls. Maybe some will take a second look at Perry. Maybe. Fourthly, it’s very early so those totals are soft. If Trump steps aside, then Cruz et al don’t have the leverage to spoil the process: it becomes a race between Bush, Rubio and Walker, with the last 2 willing to drop out if their nomination prospects become untenable. Trump holds all the cards. Is he a cuddly Daddy Warbucks or a mean Bond villain? Who can say? [sup]1[/sup] [sup]1[/sup]I’m kidding, mostly. Trump will probably peak before New Hampshire. Polling numbers are ridiculously soft now. The problem is that is not a certainty. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-no-repulbican-front-runner-ever-emerges/725426)._