# What If Russia Invaded a NATO Country **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 31, 2014, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074 "2014-10-31T01:38:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/61 "2014-11-01T02:40:55Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This would lead to nuclear war. > > What you’re describing won’t get Putin to back down; what you’re describing is a near-perfect playbook for ESCALATING things. First you’re going to send in the air force, which will be a very bloody things indeed because you’re going up against the world’s best-armed air defense force. Then the ground war builds, slowly but surely. I give it 20 days, tops, before nukes are used. You want to use back channels to tell Putin he needs to back down? He’s going to be doing the same thing, telling NATO to back down. The sides will, bit by bit, climb further up the force ladder until the ICBMs fly. > > What prevented World War Three was not that we waited for shit to happen to escalate; what prevented it is that NATO already had shit-gets-real mechanisms in place. There was no escalation; there was peace, or else there was total, ruthless war. The line was very clearly drawn and the message unambiguous; cross into West Germany and we immediately begin total war, quite likely including nuclear weapons. It was the tripwire that prevented a Soviet incursion; they couldn’t “test” NATO territorial integrity because the only policy we had was disproportionate retaliation, and forces were in place to inflict it. OK, fair enough. So in our hypothetical, where Estonia has been overrun by Russian forces basically overnight, what’s the best path forward? What **should** NATO do? Promise Poland that if the Russians go there next, well, we will take it seriously? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/62 "2014-11-01T02:56:14Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This would lead to nuclear war. > > What you’re describing won’t get Putin to back down; what you’re describing is a near-perfect playbook for ESCALATING things. First you’re going to send in the air force, which will be a very bloody things indeed because you’re going up against the world’s best-armed air defense force. Then the ground war builds, slowly but surely. I give it 20 days, tops, before nukes are used. You want to use back channels to tell Putin he needs to back down? He’s going to be doing the same thing, telling NATO to back down. The sides will, bit by bit, climb further up the force ladder until the ICBMs fly. > > What prevented World War Three was not that we waited for shit to happen to escalate; what prevented it is that NATO already had shit-gets-real mechanisms in place. There was no escalation; there was peace, or else there was total, ruthless war. The line was very clearly drawn and the message unambiguous; cross into West Germany and we immediately begin total war, quite likely including nuclear weapons. It was the tripwire that prevented a Soviet incursion; they couldn’t “test” NATO territorial integrity because the only policy we had was disproportionate retaliation, and forces were in place to inflict it. Yeah, I’m also not following your point: is it that any NATO counterattack will lead to nuclear war? I don’t agree with that. I’m with the others who think it would be closer to Gulf War I (except the Russians would be a far more able adversary). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/63 "2014-11-01T03:06:35Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Yeah, I’m also not following your point: is it that any NATO counterattack will lead to nuclear war? I don’t agree with that. That’s my point, yes. The solution is the establishment of sufficient forces in Europe, in such a manner that a Russian invasion would place NATO’s major powers in a war right away, thereby guaranteeing Russia’s destruction in a nuclear war if they try to invade a NATO country. It worked before. ---
**Author:** ![Slash1972](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slash1972/32/6461_2.png) [@Slash1972](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slash1972)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/64 "2014-11-01T03:15:57Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > _Red Storm Rising_ posited a surprise invasion of Iceland on the back of a monstrous Red Fleet, the better to launch mass bomber raids at US fleets trying to resupply NATO forces across the Atlantic. > That’s simply not happening today, because there’s no Red Fleet and no mass of long range bombers in the modern Russian army. This isn’t true. They invaded Iceland with a ship masquerading as a NATO ship, in order to cut the G-I-UK SOSUS line so NATO couldn’t detect the Soviet Subs. If Russia still has subs, not sure why this wouldn’t work today. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/65 "2014-11-01T03:19:32Z")
So you believe that in this scenario, the leader of Russia will initiate a nuclear war rather than lose Estonia? I don’t believe that for a second. If NATO were to threaten to seize Russian territory during the war, yes, I could see things going nuclear. But explain to me why Russia would start a nuclear war over Estonia, because that makes no sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/66 "2014-11-01T03:23:05Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Yeah, I’m also not following your point: is it that any NATO counterattack will lead to nuclear war? I don’t agree with that. I’m with the others who think it would be closer to Gulf War I (except the Russians would be a far more able adversary). Plus we wouldn’t be likely to have the luxury of an uncontested buildup and then starting the attack on our terms. Russia would maintain the initiative for quite some time. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/67 "2014-11-01T03:25:35Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Shades of _Blackadder_, there… > > BLACKADDER : You see, Baldrick, in order to prevent war in Europe, two superblocs developed: us, the French and the Russians on one side, and the Germans and Austro-Hungary on the other. The idea was to have two vast opposing armies, each acting as the other’s deterrent. That way there could never be a war. > BALDRICK : But this is a sort of a war, isn’t it, sir? > BLACKADDER : Yes, that’s right. You see, there was a tiny flaw in the plan. > GEORGE : What was that, sir? > BLACKADDER : It was bollocks. The difference is that everyone thought the next war in 1914 would be a fast, mobile affair that would end within three months, because that’s what happened the last time Germany and France went to war. Plus, if we assume Putin is rational, an invasion of the Baltics would be an attempt to destroy the NATO alliance. The attempt costs him very little. He could stage some kind of affront to Russia’s dignity, invade, and if NATO comes to their aid, he can pull out and say that the “punitive expedition” has been finished to Russia’s satisfaction. If we don’t come to their aid, NATO is dead. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/68 "2014-11-01T03:36:36Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > That’s my point, yes. > > The solution is the establishment of sufficient forces in Europe, in such a manner that a Russian invasion would place NATO’s major powers in a war right away, thereby guaranteeing Russia’s destruction in a nuclear war if they try to invade a NATO country. > > It worked before. Don’t B-2s with B-61s pose that deterrent better? ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/69 "2014-11-01T03:43:48Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Don’t B-2s with B-61s pose that deterrent better? The danger of that is that the Russians might conceivably convince themselves that the Americans surely won’t risk _global thermonuclear war_ over some country most of them haven’t even heard of, amirite, Vladimir? When they have to make _that_ choice, they’ll blink, those decadent Westerners, and then NATO will be history! Whereas, if a bunch of G.I.s are sitting around on the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga, the U.S. is pretty clearly involved from the very start. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/70 "2014-11-01T03:53:10Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Nonsense. If Russia invaded a NATO country, the United States and all the other NATO members would declare war on Russia. At most there might be a twenty-four hour ultimatum. It’s that simple. > > From a military standpoint, we don’t have the troops on hand like we did back during the Cold War. So there would probably be an initial period of forming a defensive line while the troops were build up for a counter-attack. I doubt it would be anything more serious than a boycott on Russian vodka. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/71 "2014-11-01T03:54:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Plus we wouldn’t be likely to have the luxury of an uncontested buildup and then starting the attack on our terms. Russia would maintain the initiative for quite some time. In the unlikely event that Russia did invade Estonia, I don’t think they would seek to push their luck. It would be in their interest to keep this as a small localized war just as much as it would be in ours. Neither side benefits if the other side panics and escalates to the nuclear level. Even leaving nuclear weapons out of it, Russia would be better off trying to present the invasion as a one-time event rather than the opening step in a wider war. While I don’t believe NATO would ignore the invasion of Estonia, I don’t think anyone believes NATO would sit by while Russia invaded Estonia and then invaded Latvia and then invaded Lithuania and then invaded Poland and then invaded Hungary and then… At some point, even the most dovish opponents of war would have to concede that Russia had to be stopped. Instead Russia would follow the usual pattern of conquering countries one at a time, while stopping in between to assure other countries that this was the last invasion and that they had no further plans for expansion and everyone should relax and accept the new status quo. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/72 "2014-11-01T03:59:44Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > I doubt it would be anything more serious than a boycott on Russian vodka. As I’ve said, I completely disagree. There’s really no reason to think the United States would ignore the Russian invasion of a NATO ally. We didn’t ignore it when South Korea was invaded and we didn’t ignore it when Kuwait was invaded and the invasion of a country we have a formal treaty with would be a lot more serious than either of those were. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/73 "2014-11-01T04:00:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Instead Russia would follow the usual pattern of conquering countries one at a time, while stopping in between to assure other countries that this was the last invasion and that they had no further plans for expansion and everyone should relax and accept the new status quo. This is exactly what a cleverer Hitler and the Nazis would have done. Conquer gradually over decades, piecemeal, as peacefully as possible, rather than blitzkrieg Europe. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/74 "2014-11-01T04:02:21Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Don’t B-2s with B-61s pose that deterrent better? No. You don’t HAVE to send B-2s if Russia invades Latvia. The Us could opt to not send them, and the UK and France and Germany and so on could also opt to not do anything. But if NATO forces are already in Latvia, at least partially defending it, there is, to use the common metaphor, an immediate tripwire. This is rudimentary game theory. Russia is less likely to attack NATO if they are convinced NATO will actually, really act as a defensive alliance and act in concert if a member is attacked. The best way to convince them of this is to arrange NATO’s defenses such that NATO _has to be at war_ if Russia attacks. The existence of a choice to not defend Latvia puts Russia in a position where they might believe that, indeed, NATO will not defend Latvia, and therefore they could possibly invade it successfully. But if it doing so they must fight through American troops, they know NATO must retaliate, and so they are vastly less likely to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/75 "2014-11-01T04:09:21Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > No. > > You don’t HAVE to send B-2s if Russia invades Latvia. The Us could opt to not send them, and the UK and France and Germany and so on could also opt to not do anything. But if NATO forces are already in Latvia, at least partially defending it, there is, to use the common metaphor, an immediate tripwire. > > This is rudimentary game theory. Russia is less likely to attack NATO if they are convinced NATO will actually, really act as a defensive alliance and act in concert if a member is attacked. The best way to convince them of this is to arrange NATO’s defenses such that NATO _has to be at war_ if Russia attacks. The existence of a choice to not defend Latvia puts Russia in a position where they might believe that, indeed, NATO will not defend Latvia, and therefore they could possibly invade it successfully. But if it doing so they must fight through American troops, they know NATO must retaliate, and so they are vastly less likely to do it. In high tension, sending US troops might stop war from breaking out. In peacetime, the public would balk. But the OP assumes and presupposes a Russian attack and is asking what the response would be after the fact. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/76 "2014-11-01T04:50:47Z")
What should happen is what I think would happen. All Russian assets in NATO countries would be frozen. All NATO members would move forces to the area, which would take several weeks. During that time, NATO would demand Russia withdraw. If Russia doesn’t withdraw, NATO would invade Estonia and liberate it. Afterwards, NATO would not trade with Russia until none of the major players are involved in their government anymore. NATO would financially and diplomatically isolate Russia as much as possible, which would hurt Russia, bad. If anything less than an active military response happened, then NATO would collapse. What’s the point of an alliance that won’t defend its members? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/77 "2014-11-01T05:46:26Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > This is exactly what a cleverer Hitler and the Nazis would have done. Conquer gradually over decades, piecemeal, as peacefully as possible, rather than blitzkrieg Europe. That is pretty close to what Hitler did. The Saar, the Rhineland, Austria, Memel, the Sudentenland, Czechoslovakia - Hitler managed to take a lot of places without starting a general war. He thought he could also take Poland but he misread the situation. Britain and France had realized Hitler wasn’t going to stop unless he was stopped so they had resolved to declare war if he invaded Poland. But you can understand why Hitler ignored the British and French declarations. France and, to a lesser extent, Britain had made commitments to some of the other countries I listed - and had failed to stand by them. The result was Germany figured it could ignore Britain and France. This shows why NATO wouldn’t ignore its commitment to Estonia or some other small member of the alliance. History has shown what happens. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/78 "2014-11-01T10:11:02Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > As I’ve said, I completely disagree. There’s really no reason to think the United States would ignore the Russian invasion of a NATO ally. We didn’t ignore it when South Korea was invaded and we didn’t ignore it when Kuwait was invaded and the invasion of a country we have a formal treaty with would be a lot more serious than either of those were. Counterpoint/Devil’s Advocate (I’m really with you on this) : the defence of Korea was essentially about telling the Communists to generally back the fuck off because dominoes everywhere OMG ; while Kuwait swims in tasty tasty oil. Whereas Estonia… hmm… they have all our Skypes ? I 'unno. [QUOTE=manson72] This isn’t true. They invaded Iceland with a ship masquerading as a NATO ship, in order to cut the G-I-UK SOSUS line so NATO couldn’t detect the Soviet Subs. If Russia still has subs, not sure why this wouldn’t work today. [/QUOTE] That was the initial surprise attack. IIRC then they proceed to ferry humongous piles of war mat. there, using the Fleet to cut off the island from counter-invasion (plus using it to shut down Transatlantic shipping). It’s been a while since I’ve re-read it though. And yeah, Russia still has subs. Good ones, too - they’ve always been very good at subs (y’know, [give or take a critical reactor failure](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_K-27) :o). That being said, it’s self-evident that any kind of large scale, overt strike against NATO would hinge on shutting down the Atlantic ASAP. If not, well, ask Hitler how goes a war against an industrial superpower you can’t touch, that is dumping all of its production directly into the lap of the guys on the frontlines :). ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/79 "2014-11-01T12:38:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Let’s have Obama and NATO in two different threads. Exactly so. Any further discussion centering on the President is off limits in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Knowledgable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/67e7ee/32.png) [@Knowledgable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowledgable)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/80 "2014-11-01T13:06:55Z")
At the request of Estonia, NATO members would be obliged to reinforce and probably after an initial ultimatum, cross into Estonia and fight the Russian troops. Also, the NATO response forces would be ready to cross into Estonia anyways, preventing the whole conquering of Estonia by Russia. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074.md?page=5)