# What If Russia Invaded a NATO Country **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 31, 2014, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074 "2014-10-31T01:38:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/81 "2014-11-01T13:51:46Z")
> [@Knowledgable](#): > > At the request of Estonia, NATO members would be obliged to reinforce and probably after an initial ultimatum, cross into Estonia and fight the Russian troops. > > Also, the NATO response forces would be ready to cross into Estonia anyways, preventing the whole conquering of Estonia by Russia. The premise of the OP is about as sensible as ‘If the US invaded Honduras to deal with illegal immigration, how would the world respond’. It isn’t going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/82 "2014-11-01T16:19:55Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Counterpoint/Devil’s Advocate (I’m really with you on this) : the defence of Korea was essentially about telling the Communists to generally back the fuck off because dominoes everywhere OMG ; while Kuwait swims in tasty tasty oil. Whereas Estonia… hmm… they have all our Skypes ? I 'unno. Estonia has an alliance with the United States. If we don’t back it up we show the world that having an alliance with us is worthless. Consequently, every country in Europe, Asia, and Africa abandons us and starts sucking up with Russia to get on their good side. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/83 "2014-11-01T16:49:22Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Estonia has an alliance with the United States. If we don’t back it up we show the world that having an alliance with us is worthless. Consequently, every country in Europe, Asia, and Africa abandons us and starts sucking up with Russia to get on their good side. Hardly. America’s richer and more powerful than Russia, and except for countries that have specific reason to fear the United States or have specific ideological / cultural affinities with Russia, America is generally going to have distinct advantages as a patron. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/84 "2014-11-01T16:50:40Z")
Pardon me for my ignorance, but in which European NATO countries does the US currently have ground troops? If the answer is not ‘all of them’, my follow-up question is: should the US place a token force in each ‘just in case’? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/85 "2014-11-01T17:02:04Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > In high tension, sending US troops might stop war from breaking out. > > In peacetime, the public would balk. The public didn’t balk at stationing troops in Germany for four decades or so. The public isn’t balking at a continued Allied - mostly US - presence in South Korea, which is there for exactly the reason troops were stationed in West Germany. Truth be told, few people care at all about overseas deployments in peacetime to places like that. A lot of soldiers LOVE those deployments. > [@](#): > > But the OP assumes and presupposes a Russian attack and is asking what the response would be after the fact. Ineffective or disastrous. [QUOTE=KarlGauss] If the answer is not ‘all of them’, my follow-up question is: should the US place a token force in each ‘just in case’? [/QUOTE] Well, no, because some places are likelier to be invaded than others. Portugal is in NATO but it’s rather difficult to imagine how Russia could or would specifically invade Portugal. Rather, tripwire deployments are usually put in likely invasion points in places the other side legitimately may believe to be within their sphere of influence or see as the first stepping stone in an offensive operation. Again, that’s why there are US forces in South Korea, which is where North Korea might actually attack, versus, say, New Zealand, where it is rather unlikely North Korea would attack. NATO put its forces in West Germany because, practically speaking, that is where the Soviet attack would have to come, if it came. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/86 "2014-11-01T17:26:18Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > . . . > Well, no, because some places are likelier to be invaded than others. Portugal is in NATO but it’s rather difficult to imagine how Russia could or would specifically invade Portugal. > > Rather, tripwire deployments are usually put in likely invasion points in places the other side legitimately may believe to be within their sphere of influence or see as the first stepping stone in an offensive operation. Again, that’s why there are US forces in South Korea, which is where North Korea might actually attack, versus, say, New Zealand, where it is rather unlikely North Korea would attack. > > NATO put its forces in West Germany because, practically speaking, that is where the Soviet attack would have to come, if it came. Fair enough. But how about putting them in the Nato-affiliated Baltic States and, say, also Poland? Those seem plausible tripwire sites, no? Thanks, Rick. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/87 "2014-11-01T17:27:53Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > The premise of the OP is about as sensible as ‘If the US invaded Honduras to deal with illegal immigration, how would the world respond’. It isn’t going to happen. I didn’t think the U.S. would start a totally pointless war in Iraq, but we elected a leader who did just that. Why should we believe Putin isn’t capable of the same thing, after he’s twice invaded other countries and become more popular because of it? I’m not saying it is likely, I’m saying it isn’t impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/88 "2014-11-01T18:14:10Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I didn’t think the U.S. would start a totally pointless war in Iraq, but we elected a leader who did just that. Why should we believe Putin isn’t capable of the same thing, after he’s twice invaded other countries and become more popular because of it? I’m not saying it is likely, I’m saying it isn’t impossible. Neither Iraq, nor Georgia nor Ukraine were members of a powerful mutual defence alliance armed with thousands of nukes, and there were at least moderately plausible pretexts for all three wars. Putin would have to be really, really stupid to court a war with NATO, or even to run serious risk of it. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/89 "2014-11-01T18:17:24Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Fair enough. But how about putting them in the Nato-affiliated Baltic States and, say, also Poland? Those seem plausible tripwire sites, no? > > Thanks, Rick. If I were one of Putin’s advisers, I would see Greece as the weak point in NATO (and the weak point in the EU) and would focus on undermining the Greek government through subversion, financing political radicalism, etc. I think Greece is the most likely ‘tripwire’, but I don’t think Russia will try to build it’s influence there through invasion but rather through other means. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/90 "2014-11-01T18:19:48Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Pardon me for my ignorance, but in which European NATO countries does the US currently have ground troops? Albania - 8 Belgium - 1205 Bulgaria - 14 Croatia - 12 Czech Republic - 15 Denmark - 16 Estonia - 7 France - 68 Germany - 53,766 Greece - 382 Hungary - 62 Italy - 10,801 Latvia - 7 Lithuania - 6 Luxembourg - 6 Netherlands - 405 Norway - 86 Poland - 35 Portugal - 723 Romania - 28 Slovakia - 10 Slovenia - 9 Spain - 1479 Turkey - 1491 United Kingdom - 9382 These are figures from [2011](http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2012/04/us/table.military.troops/). ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/91 "2014-11-01T18:21:22Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Similarly, we don’t have to fear hordes of tanks inexorably ploughing through the Fulda Gap - the Russian Army only fields around 3.000 tanks (with about 12.000 in the reserves & Nat Guard equivalent - Those 12k are war stocks that don’t have associated troops trained and ready to mobilize. Think of them parked in cold storage. I’d like to assume that some of them aren’t still WWII vintage like T-34s but… > [@Kobal2](#): > > by comparison the US fields some 7.000 tanks in its active forces alone) these days, and its total ground personnel hovers around 400k men. With absolutely non of the manned units in Europe. For a period there were no US tanks at all in Europe. There’s a training set of M1A2s now to support units training on with the best number I found being “more than 50” being sent. The 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment should have their complement of Mobile Gun Systems which are lightly armored wheeled fighting vehicles with a low pressure 105mm tank like gun. It’s an awesome system unless you have to go toe to toe with real main battle tanks. We don’t have anything like 7000k tanks manned on active duty and the National Guard has very limited armor manned after transformation. (Reserves have none) I’m going to guess they either lumped in all the non-manned training tanks, those awaiting depot rebuild, and war stocks or counted sort of tank like things. I’d be interested in the cite. Since tanks are quicker to fix and get back in the fight than wounded crew, the trained crew count matters more in the short to medium term. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/92 "2014-11-01T18:33:24Z")
Thanks for that, **Nemo**. So, there are troops present in all of them but mostly in minuscule numbers. As an aside, I had forgotten that France was in again. Regarding Greece (and **Hector** ’s point), [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO#Member_states_by_date_of_accession) Greece has declined to commit its troops to NATO control, or at least to non-Greek control. Would that lessen the effect of any increased US troop deployments there? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/93 "2014-11-01T18:33:51Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > Hardly. America’s richer and more powerful than Russia, and except for countries that have specific reason to fear the United States or have specific ideological / cultural affinities with Russia, America is generally going to have distinct advantages as a patron. Countries are going to put survival ahead of economic considerations. You worry more about your enemies than your friends. If Russia might invade you and America won’t help you, then you do what you can to placate Russia. This is what countries like Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Mongolia have been doing. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/94 "2014-11-01T19:00:19Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > If I were one of Putin’s advisers, I would see Greece as the weak point in NATO (and the weak point in the EU) and would focus on undermining the Greek government through subversion, financing political radicalism, etc. I think Greece is the most likely ‘tripwire’, but I don’t think Russia will try to build it’s influence there through invasion but rather through other means. So much for that mutual defense treaty you talked about in your previous post. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/95 "2014-11-01T19:05:28Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Albania - 8 > Germany - 53,766 > Italy - 10,801 > United Kingdom - 9382 > > These are figures from [2011](http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2012/04/us/table.military.troops/). Most of the numbers snipped. Those are total troops not ground troops. Germany for example has a lot of Air Force and medical units (some "ground"medical but they don’t give you combat power they man the hospital. [US Army Europe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Europe) paints a better picture: Actual maneuver elements to give combat power forward: 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment (~ 4500 troops) 173 Airborne Brigade Combat Team (~4400 troops) 12th Combat Aviation Brigade gives you a brigade of helicopters in support but they can’t hold ground. That’s really it for major combat formations. You can get some slices to support them. You can scrap up people and equipment to form adhoc units that are relatively light. It’s not the cold war anymore. We’ll I suppose you could throw in the 409th Army Contracting Support Brigade. Bet they could stomp a Motor Rifle Brigade with paperwork and laser pointers!!! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/96 "2014-11-01T19:20:49Z")
> [@Hector\_St\_Clare](#): > > The premise of the OP is about as sensible as ‘If the US invaded Honduras to deal with illegal immigration, how would the world respond’. It isn’t going to happen. If we can’t discuss hypotheticals on SDMB, where else could we discuss them? ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/97 "2014-11-01T19:37:25Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So much for that mutual defense treaty you talked about in your previous post. Oh, I’m not denying that America probably WOULD come to the aid of Estonia, I just don’t think they SHOULD. Russia knows that invading Estonia would be very dangerous too. But if, for example, Russia used money and propaganda to help a far-right or far-left Greek political party to win the next elections and withdraw from NATO and the EU, I’m not sure how the mutual defense arrangement could be invoked. Subverting a government through peaceful means is different than outright invasion. If the Russian government is smart, and if they want to weaken the western powers, then they will use other means short of invasion. I’m mainly thinking of Greece as the weak point in Europe because of what happened in 2012 with the economic crisis and the elections, in which both the far right and far left made big gains. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2014, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/98 "2014-11-02T00:03:18Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Bet they could stomp a Motor Rifle Brigade with paperwork and laser pointers!!! You throw wadded up balls of paper on top of and play laser pointers on the enemy. And then stand back as they’re attacked by cats. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2014, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/99 "2014-11-02T04:57:15Z")
If Russia built up forces along the Estonian frontier it’s likely that NATO would build up its forces in Poland and the other Baltic countries to try and counter this move. If the Russians invaded, it’s likely that we would witness the largest air battle since Kursk as NATO would launch a multi-day air campaign to destroy Russian forces in Estonia and possibly even strike airfields inside Russia close to the action. Since Russia would also be vulnerable in and around the Black Sea, there may be a plan to build up forces there to prevent Russia from moving too many of them northward towards the Baltic. There might even be a force projection in the Pacific to tie down more Russian military assets there. Frankly, a Russian invasion of the Baltic states (or any NATO members for that matter) would likely precipitate the end of Russia as a functioning nation. Russia has allowed itself to become painted into a corner where its only moves would be capitulation or a nuclear exchange, neither of which bodes well for it. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2014, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074/100 "2014-11-02T05:03:16Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > If Russia built up forces along the Estonian frontier it’s likely that NATO would build up its forces in Poland and the other Baltic countries to try and counter this move. If the Russians invaded, it’s likely that we would witness the largest air battle since Kursk as NATO would launch a multi-day air campaign to destroy Russian forces in Estonia and possibly even strike airfields inside Russia close to the action. > > Since Russia would also be vulnerable in and around the Black Sea, there may be a plan to build up forces there to prevent Russia from moving too many of them northward towards the Baltic. There might even be a force projection in the Pacific to tie down more Russian military assets there. > > Frankly, a Russian invasion of the Baltic states (or any NATO members for that matter) would likely precipitate the end of Russia as a functioning nation. Russia has allowed itself to become painted into a corner where its only moves would be capitulation or a nuclear exchange, neither of which bodes well for it. I don’t exactly think a country that endured and outlasted Napoleon, Hitler and Genghis Khan is going to ‘stop existing as a functional country’ anytime soon. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-russia-invaded-a-nato-country/703074.md?page=6)