# What If the Surge Had Not Happened **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 21, 2011, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317 "2011-10-21T00:56:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/41 "2011-10-22T20:25:55Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Most of the deaths were caused by the various militias and terrorists not by American soldiers. And more people would have died had Iraq balkanized First off, cite. Second off, Iraq would never have balkanized _had you geniuses not blown it to smithereens in the first place_. > [@](#): > > And the Democrats and antiwar wanted to just pull out not implement counterinsurgency tactics. And ? > [@](#): > > Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and a whole bunch of other Democrats and Republicans flip-flopped in the course of 2005 and '06. Simply put, why would Kerry want to fight on in an unpopular war if pulling out would boost his popularity? Ah, yes, the dreaded flip-flop. That shameful thing where your Wednesday opinion differs from your Monday opinion, based on what happened on Tuesday. > [@](#): > > I know, however in the first decade or so at least the presence of American soldiers did help democratize Germany and Japan and the presence of American troops in Korea like those in Iraq was to protect its government and maintain stability. Ask the locals how they felt about it. Hell, ask yourself how you’d feel about, say, China coming around; destroying the power structure you’re used to; implementing their own and telling you to fucking like it because it maintains the kind of stability they like. > [@](#): > > To bring stability to Iraq Considering the current status of Iraq, I’d say that was a spectacular botch, then. You should get a military that rolls 20s. > [@](#): > > Well originally the Iraq invasion was to remove WMDs and/or prevent their construction but since there were no WMDs, our main goal was to make sure Iraq was a free and stable country. Either one or the other, since they have absolutely nothing to do with each other. > [@](#): > > This goal has mostly succeedeed and an anti-American dictator who posed a threat to American interests is gone/ Oh well, good then. As long as an anti-American dictator is gone, I guess hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and an entire country flung back 50+ years are just meaningless collateral. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2011, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/42 "2011-10-22T21:56:15Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Well originally the Iraq invasion was to remove WMDs and/or prevent their construction but since there were no WMDs, our main goal was to make sure Iraq was a free and stable country. > > This goal has mostly succeedeed and an anti-American dictator who posed a threat to American interests is gone/ Nonsense. The primary goals were to permanently conquer Iraq for use as a military base, to control their oil, and to turn iraq into a free market libertarian paradise. All have failed. Killing Saddam, destroying Iraqi secularism and murdering tens of thousands of random Iraqis as revenge for 9-11 (who cares that they had nothing to do with it) were secondary goals; those succeeded but the first was not very important the other two are evil. Our goal was never to make Iraq a free country; we wanted them subjugated to us. And we’ve replaced a dictator that was a minor irritant with millions of mortal enemies of the US. Millions of people who have perfectly good reasons to want to see America in ruins, and have nothing left to lose. It is nearly inevitable that we’ll see legions of Iraqi terrorists and anti-American activists for generations thanks to this. > [@Kobal2](#): > > Oh well, good then. As long as an anti-American dictator is gone, I guess hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and an entire country flung back 50+ years are just meaningless collateral. Of course; they aren’t American or even Christian so they don’t count as human. They are either cattle to be exploited by us or vermin to be exterminated. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2011, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/43 "2011-10-23T22:58:06Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > At a cost of $800 billion and 4400 American lives. Was it worth it? Should we spend the same blood and treasure next time a a dictator makes empty threats against us? No, as I’ve said many times with hindsight I wouldn’t have supported invading Iraq in the first place. > [@Kobal2](#): > > First off, cite. Cite what exaclty? > [@](#): > > Second off, Iraq would never have balkanized _had you geniuses not blown it to smithereens in the first place_. No but it would be a dictatorship > [@](#): > > And ? > > Ah, yes, the dreaded flip-flop. That shameful thing where your Wednesday opinion differs from your Monday opinion, based on what happened on Tuesday. I’m not condemning it, I’m just saying that Kerry as President would have withdrawn from Iraq. > [@](#): > > Ask the locals how they felt about it. Hell, ask yourself how you’d feel about, say, China coming around; destroying the power structure you’re used to; implementing their own and telling you to fucking like it because it maintains the kind of stability they like. A lot of Iraqis did support the invasion-in the particular the Kurds who are said to be the only people in the world who would vote for George W Bush now Considering the current status of Iraq, I’d say that was a spectacular botch, then. You should get a military that rolls 20s. > [@](#): > > Either one or the other, since they have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Our missions goals changed, since it would have absurd to withdraw and not clean up the mess after it was found there were no WMDs. And anyways even if WMDs were found, the US would still have had to stabilize Iraq. > [@](#): > > Oh well, good then. As long as an anti-American dictator is gone, I guess hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths and an entire country flung back 50+ years are just meaningless collateral. [/QUOTE] Certainly not. [QUOTE] > [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Nonsense. The primary goals were to permanently conquer Iraq for use as a military base, Which is why the US is withdrawing from Iraq at the end of this year which was a deal negotiated by President Bush. :rolleyes: > [@](#): > > Killing Saddam, destroying Iraqi secularism and murdering tens of thousands of random Iraqis as revenge for 9-11 (who cares that they had nothing to do with it) were secondary goals; those succeeded but the first was not very important the other two are evil. So Saddam was insignificant? And why would the US want to destroy Iraqi secularism considering America’s current boogeyman so to speak is Islamistm? > [@](#): > > Our goal was never to make Iraq a free country; we wanted them subjugated to us. And we’ve replaced a dictator that was a minor irritant with millions of mortal enemies of the US. I suppose invading Kuwait was a minor irritant. > [@](#): > > Millions of people who have perfectly good reasons to want to see America in ruins, and have nothing left to lose. It is nearly inevitable that we’ll see legions of Iraqi terrorists and anti-American activists for generations thanks to this. Would you like to bet? > [@](#): > > Of course; they aren’t American or even Christian so they don’t count as human. They are either cattle to be exploited by us or vermin to be exterminated. Nonsense. Why else did we stay to reconstruct Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/44 "2011-10-23T23:58:54Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > I’m not condemning it, I’m just saying that Kerry as President would have withdrawn from Iraq. No, he would not have. The _Realpolitik_ of the situation would have forced Kerry to stay in Iraq just as it forced Obama to leave Gitmo open for as long as he did. > [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Killing Saddam, destroying Iraqi secularism and murdering tens of thousands of random Iraqis as revenge for 9-11 (who cares that they had nothing to do with it) were secondary goals; those succeeded but the first was not very important the other two are evil. > > So Saddam was insignificant? And why would the US want to destroy Iraqi secularism considering America’s current boogeyman so to speak is Islamistm? The invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with Kuwait. Hussein was a minor irritant who required a single war of a couple of weeks and a neglible deployment of aircraft for a few years to restrain. The U.S. did not want to destroy the secular nature of Iraq any more than it wanted over 100,000 Iraqis to die, but those were the known, (by anyone not seduced by Neo-Con silliness), outcomes when we went in. The major resistance to Hussein was organized by religious factions and he was from the minority religious group, pretty much guaranteeing that the majority group would seek retaliation once he was removed. And by ignoring the religious reality of the country while simultaneously ignoring the calls from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to use a lot more troops, we guaranteed the civil wars that have taken so many lives. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/45 "2011-10-24T00:01:29Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Nonsense. Why else did we stay to reconstruct Iraq. Because letting a nation that large fester in a condition even worse than its current one would have been an even worse mistake. (Which is why Kerry would not have abruptly pulled out.) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/46 "2011-10-24T00:13:09Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Why else did we stay to reconstruct Iraq. > [@tomndebb](#): > > Because letting a nation that large fester in a condition even worse than its current one would have been an even worse mistake. (Which is why Kerry would not have abruptly pulled out.) The [Pottery Barn Doctrine](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pottery_Barn_rule). ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/47 "2011-10-24T00:25:08Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Because letting a nation that large fester in a condition even worse than its current one would have been an even worse mistake. (Which is why Kerry would not have abruptly pulled out.) Well there was a lot of money to be made by fleecing the America tax payers to make military contractors even richer. The Iraqi war costs have to include the 32,000 plus wounded. Many of them with head wounds. There will be an enormous continuing cost . [http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-military-deaths-in-iraq-war-at-4478-tuesday-according-to-associated-press-count/2011/10/18/gIQAuRB7uL\_story.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-military-deaths-in-iraq-war-at-4478-tuesday-according-to-associated-press-count/2011/10/18/gIQAuRB7uL_story.html) ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/48 "2011-10-24T00:46:04Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Well there was a lot of money to be made by fleecing the America tax payers to make military contractors even richer. > The Iraqi war costs have to include the 32,000 plus wounded. Many of them with head wounds. There will be an enormous continuing cost . > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-military-deaths-in-iraq-war-at-4478-tuesday-according-to-associated-press-count/2011/10/18/gIQAuRB7uL\_story.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-military-deaths-in-iraq-war-at-4478-tuesday-according-to-associated-press-count/2011/10/18/gIQAuRB7uL_story.html) This is really not relevant to Qin’s post. I suppose that those CT enthusiasts who really believe that we went to war simply to enrich Halliburton can embrace the idea that we stayed there for the sole purpose of feeding them more graft. I doubt that there is any substance to the claim. Halliburton was more than willing to take all the money their Neo-Con friends in government were willing to hand them, but the notion that we conducted the war simply to make them rich is a bit far fetched outside of people who like those sort of conspiracies. (That logic reminds me of all the folks who insisted that we were in Vietnam simply to take all the off-shore oil, at some point. Given that Vietnam is [ranked 35th in oil production with less than half of even the 29th ranked producer](http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=vm&v=88), I am pretty sure that that rumor was as false as any claims that we stayed in Iraq for the purpose of enriching Halliburton.) ---
**Author:** ![SecretaryofEvil](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@SecretaryofEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SecretaryofEvil)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/49 "2011-10-24T15:34:43Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > In addition a defeat in Iraq would give us another Vietnam syndrome after the first one had been cured by Grenada and Desert Storm. Grenada? Really? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2011, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/50 "2011-10-24T21:30:25Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > In addition a defeat in Iraq would give us another Vietnam syndrome after the first one had been cured by Grenada and Desert Storm. Missed that somehow. “Vietnam syndrome” was a good thing. Americans not running about the world mass murdering and conquering is better for everyone, including themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2011, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/51 "2011-10-25T02:01:23Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > No, he would not have. The _Realpolitik_ of the situation would have forced Kerry to stay in Iraq just as it forced Obama to leave Gitmo open for as long as he did. Not the same-Gitmo stayed open because of popular opposition to closing it and brining prisoners over to the US but the Iraq was highly unpopular by 2006. > [@](#): > > The invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with Kuwait. Hussein was a minor irritant who required a single war of a couple of weeks and a neglible deployment of aircraft for a few years to restrain. > The U.S. did not want to destroy the secular nature of Iraq any more than it wanted over 100,000 Iraqis to die, but those were the known, (by anyone not seduced by Neo-Con silliness), outcomes when we went in. The major resistance to Hussein was organized by religious factions and he was from the minority religious group, pretty much guaranteeing that the majority group would seek retaliation once he was removed. And by ignoring the religious reality of the country while simultaneously ignoring the calls from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to use a lot more troops, we guaranteed the civil wars that have taken so many lives. [/QUOTE] I agree with this analysis, but I was responding to **Der Trihs** who has some different views. > [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Missed that somehow. “Vietnam syndrome” was a good thing. Americans not running about the world mass murdering and conquering is better for everyone, including themselves. In contributed in general to an air of pessimism, lack of moral certainty, and lack of firmness in the face of the Cold War. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2011, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/52 "2011-10-25T02:21:19Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > In contributed in general to an air of pessimism, lack of moral certainty, and lack of firmness in the face of the Cold War. Please; we were extremely self righteous during (and after) the Cold War, absolutely certain of our God Given moral superiority. And what do you mean a lack of “firmness”? We were (and again, still are) ruthless, sadistic and brutal. As for military pessimism; well that was _accurate_. These stupid wars of conquest consistently turn out to be disasters. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2011, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317/53 "2011-10-25T05:30:46Z")
[**The Iraq war is finally over. And it marks a complete neocon defeat**](http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/oct/23/us-withdrawal-iraq-defeat-bush-neocons) Keep making your “own reality.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-if-the-surge-had-not-happened/600317.md?page=2)