What if there were NEVER fossil fuels?

Because it’s not just a matter of fuel for the boilers…it’s all the other stuff you’d need in order to get to steam. You’d need a way to produce steel in industrial quantities. You need coke for that, or coal. There isn’t enough wood to do it, and wood isn’t the ideal material for industrial level steel or cast iron.

There would never have been an industrial revolution without fossil fuels, IMHO…they were the abundant and easily obtainable fuel source that kick started it. Without fossil fuels, I have a hard time seeing how it would happen, to be honest. Maybe someone can walk me through how we’d get there without fossil fuels, because I don’t see any way it could happen.

[QUOTE=Learjeff]
Actually, the chemical industry started from the dye industry, as did the drug industry. Bayer was a dye maker! At least, according to a book I read not long ago, which I’ll post later as I can’t recall the name.
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Yes…sorry, I didn’t mean there would be no chemistry (or alchemy actually). Some processes we’d definitely have, including dying, felting and tanning, plus some other stuff. But a lot of the industrial chemistry needs fossil fuels at some level to have even ever gotten developed. This would be a world without coal, tar/pitch (with further implications concerning boat building), methane/swamp gas and myriad other naturally occurring things that all fall in the category of ‘fossil fuels’.

And BOOM goes the dynamite.

I have to say, looks like Der Trihs was the closest to my own thoughts on this in that other thread. Thanks for linking to that.

By the end of the sixteenth century, people were bidding for the right to pick up fallen twigs and sticks in forests- that’s how short of fuel they were. Coal made it possible not only to mass produce iron but supplied the fuel for the glass and brick industries, both of which are energy intensive. Without coal the only question is whether the jump to hydroelectricity could have been made by a late-Renaissance culture before it collapsed back into a medieval steady state due to a chronic wood shortage.

Off the top of my head I’d say we would have burned up all the trees before we had technologically advanced enough to not need to burn trees.

Steam engines could have still run on wood fuels and the diesel engine was pretty quickly tried with plant based oils and many run on plant based oils (like rapeseed oil) today.

ooh, I remember that thread, it was great fun. I think Blake definitely got the better of me in that debate on airships, revisiting it.

Sounds like one likely interpretation of the history of Easter Island, IIRC.

I don’t know. But consider the timing. Large scale extraction of coal came after the Industrial Revolution, which came after the scientific revolution and the European Enlightenment. Wikipedia notes that without coal, “Britain would have run out of suitable sites for watermills by the 1830s.” That tells me that the industrial revolution would have started, then hit by sharply increasing prices of energy.

I daresay there is enough wood to produce rifles with inter-changeable parts. And there’s a lot that can be done with canals. And windmills. And universities and universal public education. The fundamentals of economic growth are technological.

Holland’s importance in pre industrial Europe was party due to the abundance of peat and the ease of transport of it.

While it wasn’t by far the sole source of energy, peat did contribute to the available energy.

The problem with wood and biofuels is that once you’ve chopped down the forest to make charcoal to smelt iron or run your steam engines, the forest is gone, and you are limited to the annual harvest of that resource. So yes, you can grow fuel wood or oil crops on a farm, but that’s a farm that isn’t being used for other crops like cotton or wheat.

You can smelt iron ore and make steel using wood or biofuels, that isn’t the problem. The problem is the amount you can make. Steel has been made for thousands of years. But you can’t produce steel in industrial quantities–steel for battleships and Eiffel Towers and skyscrapers and bridges and railroads and automobiles–without industrial quantities of fuel. In our world, that fuel was coal. Without coal, there is no industrial steel production. Instead there is craft steel production, and metals are an expensive luxury, rather than a commodity.

Without cheap steel, our modern buildings are impossible. The Eiffel Tower was the first demonstration of what could be done with cheap iron, the ancient Romans knew about iron, but the thought of construction a tower made entirely out of metal would have broken their brains. And without steel reinforcement, concrete is a different sort of material. Concrete has incredibly high compressive strength, but no tensile strength. So yes, you can build concrete bridges and concrete buildings and concrete boats, but you can’t build the things we build today.

So what you have is a civilization entirely constrained by the annual energy budget that can be intercepted from the sun. You expand hydro power until every source is used. You exploit wind and tidal until all sources are used. You have massive plantations of fuel crops, so food is much more expensive, but yields are pretty much fixed. Photoelectric solar power is pretty much equivalent to growing plants and burning them. You have geothermal power in some locations.

But the problem is that you can’t intensify energy production the same way you can intensify fossil fuel extraction. And that means a world with a vastly, dramatically reduced annual energy budget, and that means certain things are just economically impossible. Until and unless someone discovers nuclear power, civilization is permanently stuck at a lower level of technology.

Transportation is still stuck in the horse and buggy and sailing ship stage. Of course steam cars and railroads and steamboats can be powered by wood. That’s how early steamboats were powered. The areas along the river or rail link collect the wood at the various stations. The trouble is that gigantic amounts of wood are required, and pretty soon the area is deforested, and steam transportation becomes too expensive to compete with sail and barges.

Expensive steel means that every metal object in your house costs ten times as much. Forests would be managed to within an inch to provide maximum fuel wood, and wood would be a much more expensive, even though wood construction and wood objects would be cheaper than metal. Electric power in the home is possible in some locations and for the very wealthy, but almost all electric production is going to be turned to industrial ends, not domestic. No domestic electrification means no electronic industry.

So, transportation is expensive. Home heating is expensive and people huddle around tiny little stoves that burn precious scraps of wood. No home electrification. Expensive food that competes with fuel crops, and since transport is expensive you can’t even cheaply ship food from one location to another.

The world resembles the 1700s more than the 1800s, because the 1800s is when massive steel production and steam power and coal heat really took off. Remember that it’s not that any one technology is literally dependent on coal, it’s that without cheap coal a whole panoply of technologies and goods become vastly more expensive, and because those things are more expensive a secondary panoply of technologies and goods become more expensive because resources have to be diverted to the first group.

So you have a much a poorer world, where people have to expend a lot more effort just to stay warm and fed, and that means less space for technological advancement. The only way over the energy hump is if they can harness nuclear power, and without the industrial revolution providing wealth that might never happen.

Oh, I was just being snarky. You’re definitely right that oil is a veritable gold mine of complex hydrocarbons, which we use for damn near everything. So long plastics! I once remarked to a scientist friend that people of the future would look back and say “Can you believe, people used to burn this stuff for mere energy?” He replied that by that time we could synthesize it. I hope he was right.

Good post altogether. It’s hard to imagine how things would have progressed without fossil fuels, but it wouldn’t have included what we call the industrial revolution. At least, not yet.

Gaudi would have been far more important! Catenary arches, FTW!

[QUOTE=Lemur866]
Transportation is still stuck in the horse and buggy and sailing ship stage. Of course steam cars and railroads and steamboats can be powered by wood. That’s how early steamboats were powered. The areas along the river or rail link collect the wood at the various stations. The trouble is that gigantic amounts of wood are required, and pretty soon the area is deforested, and steam transportation becomes too expensive to compete with sail and barges.
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Even sail would be more difficult, since since ancient times wooden ships relied on pitch and tars for everything from seems to sails. There are substitutes, but that assumes that, it being more difficult, anyone would have bothered in the first place. Certainly technological development would have taken completely different lines of inquiry.

That’s the thing that I think most people are missing here. One thing leads to another, but if you don’t have that early stuff, it’s hard to see how they would have gotten to similar developmental points down the line.

Yes, exactly…and you are making the point a hell of a lot better than I did. The thing is, you CAN make steel without coal or coke…but it’s going to be more expensive and more labor and energy intensive. So, you will be related to making small quantities of expensive steel, instead of the vast quantities of cheaper steel that was one of the factors that propelled us into the industrial age.

Exactly. And it’s hard (very unlikely I’d say) to see how they would have gotten to nuclear energy without fossil fuels to spur development and lines of research. Heck, it’s hard for me to see how they would have gotten to the steam engine…not because they couldn’t do it (with a few leaps in imagination…after all, there was a steam engine as far back as ancient Greece), but because I don’t see the cost to benefits of doing so in a world where you are basically limited to wood for every type of fuel and material for building things like ships and such.

[QUOTE=XT]
Even sail would be more difficult, since since ancient times wooden ships relied on pitch and tars for everything from seems to sails
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Tar and pitch of course were made from trees early on, but it’s yet another resource that relied on trees…you can see the progression of Europeans deforesting their land in a search for more and more timber.

I was thinking that we could get up to around 1810. We could get manufacturing and something like an assembly line, but no railroads and no skyscrapers. We could get the public health projects and water treatment of the 1800s which would tamp down mortality. Transport would be via a large network of canals. And canals can be pretty productive: Fogel concluded that almost all the agricultural land that became economically valuable because of railroads also would have been valuable had there been only an extended series of canals. The net contribution of railroads to gross national product (GNP) due to reducing shipping costs of agricultural products, concluded Fogel, amounted to only about 2 percent of GNP. Of course, Fogel recognized that his methods did not take account of the reduced cost of shipping nonagricultural goods by railroad. Robert W. Fogel - Econlib

Look at the coal and steel charts here: http://voteview.com/rtopic2.htm It’s hard to tell, but my take is that production before 1830 was pretty low. I conjecture that 1810-1830 levels of development are supportable without coal. And there’s scope for per capita economic growth afterwards, albeit at perhaps 1/5 to 1/3 the speed. But physics only became an expensive endeavor during the 1940s. I would conjecture that the first nuclear power plant could have been constructed during the late 20th century. And from there, growth rates could have doubled. All numbers are WAG.

Also, a more realistic thought experiment would involve positive but sharply lower levels of fossil fuels. Say the dinosaurs were not wiped out by the meteorite and the Pondersaurus gains opposable thumbs at 180 million BCE. Or maybe humans have an extinction event, so that the next intelligent specie has to make due with vastly depleted fossil reserves.

I doubt that you could get up to even an 1810 level without coal. Without coal you can’t mass produce brick, you can’t mass produce cast iron.

I would think you could have something resembling the industrial revolution using hydro power alone. Making steel with electric furnaces consumes huge amounts of power, but would have been perfectly doable with 19th century technology. There is an enormous amount of unused potential hydroelectric energy in the world, especially if you’re not too picky about the environmental impacts. It could be some interesting alternative history-- the industrial powerhouses of Europe would be places like Scandinavia and Switzerland, and the major theme of colonialism would be finding wet mountainous areas suitable for large manufacturing interests.

The problem is how are you developing electric furnaces? Wood and fossil fuels produce heat directly. Water power and wind power have to produce heat by indirect means - turn a turbine; produce electricity; run the electricity through wires to overheat them.

So your system would require a substantial industrial base to already be in existence as a first step in producing the steel needed to build an industrial base.

Or industrial quantities of glass either. All of these technologies are interrelated, and just saying we’d burn trees to do it ignores the fact that there are only so many trees out there. If you are using the trees to produce your steel, and using the trees to produce your pitch and using the trees to produce your ships and using the trees to produce your glass, and using them to make your bricks, etc etc etc…well, there are only so many trees to go around.

[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
So your system would require a substantial industrial base to already be in existence as a first step in producing the steel needed to build an industrial base.
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Yes, exactly. Same with all the other high tech stuff folks are putting forth that we could have developed (wind and solar electricity for instance). The Romans certainly had built industrial level hyrdo, but it was extremely resource intensive to do it…and not something that was likely to happen world wide. The Chinese too had advanced industries (though I know less about how much they used fossil fuels…I seem to recall that they used coal in their steel manufacturing, and oil tars for various things as well…I know the Egyptians used the stuff in their embalming processes and for cosmetics and such), but again it was extremely resource intensive.

[QUOTE=Measure for Measure]
Also, a more realistic thought experiment would involve positive but sharply lower levels of fossil fuels. Say the dinosaurs were not wiped out by the meteorite and the Pondersaurus gains opposable thumbs at 180 million BCE. Or maybe humans have an extinction event, so that the next intelligent specie has to make due with vastly depleted fossil reserves.
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You could have something like the Siberian Traps gone wild (and global), but it’s hard to see how ANYTHING would have survived if that had happened…and you’d still never get all the fossil fuels. Still, that was what the OP wanted to talk about.

I’m saying that coal was a trivial source of energy in 1800 so that any number of energy sources could have substituted for it. If you look at the chart here you will see that coal fuel use only exceeded wood fuel during the 1880s. Even in 1860, coal was a small part of the total energy budget.

The problem is that the early days of the industrial revolution weren’t exactly family-friendly. We’ve had phenomenal growth over the past 120 years or so, which couldn’t exist without cheap energy. I’m arguing that we could have had an industrial revolution, though a mass-consumer one would be delayed at least 100 years. And in this alternative history, most of the world would still be agrarian today.

In the back of my mind, I’m worried about the chemical industry and losing lots of developmental lynchpins. So I frankly don’t think this question can be nailed without detailed study. Still, my underlying view is that once the scientific revolution of the 1600-1700s is in place, much can follow. If you can stop Gutenberg though, all bets are off.