Saw this question on the board about John Adams.
Not this board, it was just a piece of wood and someone had written on it with a piece of charcoal. I think it was that Jefferson guy.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Trump decides he doesn’t want to risk getting voted out of office in 2020 and is willing to break the law to avoid it.
Which would he do? Declare he’s postponing the election and sow open opposition to his Presidency with a naked power grab? Or hold the election as scheduled, manipulate the results, and declare himself the winner regardless of how many votes he actually got?
Who’s going to prove him wrong if he declares he won? Who’ll investigate the results? The Republican majority in Congress? The Republican majority on the Supreme Court? Trump himself?
Hell, if Trump does this there’s plenty of people on this board who would believe him.
Right. *Stealing *an election is something that is tried and tested, people know how to do it. There is no need to bring down the process if you can play it to your advantage.
I have a vague memory of the 2012 election when results were coming in and Obama was declared the winner. I recall Karl Rove on FOX reacting in shock. I mean literal, “it can’t be”, kind of surprise to the point he kept denying it for a bit. I have zero proof of anything but either he bought their own, bogus internal polling bullshit that they peddled to the media hook, line and sinker or he really had a reason to expect a different result suggesting the fix was in (or so he thought). As much as I disliked the guy my impression of him was that he is not a stupid person and despite whatever bullshit he peddled he knew the tricks he was playing and that their internal polling was more fantasy than reality. But again, I dunno. Just a pet conspiracy theory and not one I cling to very hard.
Well, the decision to “postpone” (euphemism for cancel) an election isn’t done in a vacuum. In the novel I referenced in a prior post, the way it was done was this. A staged terrorist event kills both major party candidates (along with a number of other folks) This serves as the rationale for postponement. The patsies for this were far-leftist types intended to be Weatherman analogs. (The book was set in the 70’s.) Update that to Antifa and you’re good to go.
These clowns? They could try.
Again, the elections are all state-run. Is it possible for them to manipulate key states to get an Electoral College win? Sure. They’ve done it once already. Can they change the results sufficiently to take over the states with the most population? Fuck, no. What you would see is what you have already seen - the flipping of states at the local and state level. If trump decided to go after California and New York, they’d just tell him to pound sand and tie everything up in the courts until he’s termed out. If he doesn’t infarct first.
There is a good chance of a second civil war, but it won’t be fought on the battlefields as much as it will be waged in the courts. Rule of Law is still ingrained in most of the population. The nutballs will be the first to act and the first to die. 95% of the population will just hunker down and ride it out until the .01% put their foot down.
What will America be like if/when it recovers from this madness? With evidence mounting against Trump and criminal and civil suits threatened against top Trumpists, remaining in office may be his best chance to enjoy the rest of his life. Once Trump loses power will fraudsters like Pruitt ever hold elective office again? What about enablers like Paul Ryan? In an optimistic scenario even the liars at FoxNews may suffer. Once Trump goes down.
So the incentive by criminals and traitors to retain the Trump regime is huge. And there’s certainly the will to use all means, whether ethical or not. But Trump might be re-elected without cheating, and would therefore have a huge incentive NOT to engage in obvious fraud. If the election were held today, Trump vs Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris, will any Doper say with confidence that Warren/Harris would be the favorite?
We can expect shenanigans, but actually canceling or postponing the 2020 elections seems quite far-fetched. It seems naive to assume that the states could just ignore this, however; for one thing it is Mike Pence who is charged with certifying the electoral result.
One might imagine Trump sending busloads of supporters, or troops, into California to intimidate Hispanic voters. This is just one of many ways an insurrection might arise. But — maybe I’m an optimist — I consider such scenarios unlikely. The Trumpists are evil enough for such desperate tactics, but probably too incompetent to pull it off.
Predictit.org shows Trump as 40% to win re-election in 2020. That’s the net chance, so his chance conditioned on his running is greater than 50%.
Refresh my memory, please. Which communist dictatorship did America prop up?
Does the Soviet Union count? I wouldn’t exactly call it a dictatorship like Cuba or North Korea, but it isn’t that far from it.
The Soviets?
During the Russian civil war the US supported the White Movement which were anti-communist forces against the Reds (obviously the White Movement lost).
Certainly we helped Stalin during WWII but that was a marriage of convenience against a common foe which didn’t last ten seconds after the war was over (remember General Patton and some others wanted to keep going and attack the Soviets at the end of WWII).
Add-on question (hope the OP doesn’t mind): Since the elections are held by the states, what if enough red/Republican states get in on the game to agree to suspend their elections so that the Democratic 2020 candidate can’t get to the 270 electoral votes required even if winning every single state that does still hold election? The Democratic candidate could get 268 electoral votes to Trump’s 0 and still not win the Electoral College.
Edit: I know there aren’t enough reliably red states to carry a 270-EV majority, but just an electional what if.
Well, it would be against the law:
So, presumably, the dems could sue and would almost certainly win. If the states still ignored it then you have a break down of the rule of law in the US and have big problems.
No they didn’t. Come on - a cherry picked poll of a non-representative sample, and you fall for it.
The SDMB - the most gullible skeptics on the Internet.
Regards,
Shodan
Wouldn’t it be easier for these states to change in advance whatever state laws are needed to have the legislature / governor hand-pick the electoral college delegates and treat what the voters wanted as an advisory referendum?
So says the person regurgitating far right criticism of the poll. Pot meet kettle. :rolleyes:
They state their methodology in the article and some of their questions are in line with other polls asking similar questions. Indeed those polls show a larget majority of republican voters believe completely wrong, proven wrong, facts. Given that can you say this result is even a little surprising or doesn’t even pass a basic smell test?
If they do count as a communist dictatorship then we propped them up. That was the question. Reagan also propped them up by ‘selling’ them wheat when their economy would have collapsed years earlier than it did without our help.
I don’t see why it matters. We have propped up unsavory governments, it’s the reality of international politics, sometimes it’s been in the legitimate interests of the United States, sometimes not, only the latter should matter, it’s the results that count.
If? We’re talking about Stalin here.
Once you start spouting hypotheticals like every red state postponing their elections, you might as well just posit an alien invasion and everybody becoming pod people.
If enough red states made a decision to postpone elections, we would already be in a one-party police state and there would be fuck-all anybody could do about it short of armed insurrection.
North Korea. But that’s a recent development.
I’m basically in agreement that elections can’t be suspended, although I believe that in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 there was discussion of contingencies in the event of some sort of extraordinary crisis. But considering how we’ve held elections during a Civil War and 2 major world war commitments, I don’t think there’s anything that would be able to top these in terms of meeting the crisis definition.
However, what the right wing in this country could do is seriously undermine the confidence that people have in those election results. If that happens, then it could lead to major unrest and political chaos.