It’s nice to see some of you thinking “recession”. This war sucks, and it could get more like Depression. This situation is hurting airlines, some are folding. Hospitals are hurting because the subway is messed up and regular paying customers can’t get to the hospital. Trickling effect is going to close a lot more business and corps then we think.
I think one sure business will be Mortuary Science, and undertaking. Maybe they won’t do as well either if people don’t have jobs to pay for expensive coffins. They will have to use the pulper ones.
The media, man. There has to be someone out there somwhere reporting the news. Maybe not in so many outlets, but there always has to be writers and broadcasters.
This is why I’m glad I am a journalism student, even though I don’t like journalism anymore (the best jobs, with Cecil, are already taken!)
IANAEconomist but historicly aren’t wars good for the economy under these types of cirumstances. The govt will be pouring billions of dollars back into the economy in purchases to manufacturers of millitary hardware and various supplies needed to sustain the millitary in the field. Those Manufacturers will need to speed up production = more jobs = less unemployed = happy US.
I have often heard of the Pharmaceutical Industry being described as recession-proof. I don’t know if I would go that far, but I think recession-resistant is pretty accurate. Part of it, I think, has to do with the long development times for new drugs. Seven to 10 years from the lab bench to the marketplace is pretty standard. So I guess the idea is that these companies are, from the get-go, in it for the long haul, at least by the standards of coporate America where attention tends to be on the next quarters results, but no further. But if you are not expecting any sales for 10 years, you better have all your stuff together and be prepared to ride out any normal recession.
I am fortunate in that my business is medical reimbursement. I have yet to work for a company that has ever had a lay-off of the business department. In fact, in hard times, the billing staff’s jobs become more secure because we have to work harder to ensure that everyone else can keep their jobs, too.
In business schools, students are taught that there are normal and inferior products. As the economy seesaws back and forth, the proportions of each type sold follow.
Kraft Dinner is an inferior product, as are economy cars, low end brands, plastic products over wood and steel, etc. Any industry operating efficiently at the low price-point end of the spectrum will do fine during a recession.
It’s luxury goods that really suffer during a recession.
The general term is “consumer noncyclicals” and covers companies that sell staple consumer goods like cleaning supplies, toilet paper, and (to a degree) food. Clorox is probably a good buy right now.
Service industries (e.g. plumbers) do not do as well, as people tend to defer getting things fixed or try to fix them themselves during a recession.
Government-related industries and academia get a boost during a recession; the first due to deficit spending to prop up the economy, the second due to the well-known wisdom that if you can’t find a job, you might as well go to school.
Well I’ll be damned. I work with photographic processes involving gum arabic and I’ve researched about every aspect of the product in excruciating detail. And a few years back, I started having trouble obtaining gum products, and I phoned my suppliers and they admitted they had problems too. One major watercolor manufacturer said they had to cut back production and were reaching critical levels of gum arabic supply, usually they have warehouses full of the stuff but now they only had a few days supply and most of that was contaminated, inferior material. And this was all because of: the war in Somalia. Apparently all the best Gum Acacia plants grow in Somalia.
So yeah, there is some general truth that regional conflicts have bottlenecked the gum arabic supply. It’s just not bin Laden.
Oh, BTW, I had to laugh at a headline appearing in my local paper. I though this was the one recession-proof industry.
Prisons Expect Layoffs
I keep trying to read the story but I start laughing so hard I can’t get past the first sentence.