Kip Thorne has won every one of his wagers that did not depend on human agency, and lose every one that did.
But Hawking’s proposed solution is one of the most hand-wavy papers I’ve ever seen published. And that’s saying something, for a man who can’t move his hands.
Hawking radiation is related to QM’s interaction with black holes, so we don’t have really great answers for that.
Radioactive decay can be described by a wavefunction of an alpha particle that is confined to the nucleus but has a small chance of appearing outside the nucleus. The wavefunction gradually evolves from a “very likely to be in the nucleus” wavefunction to a “not very likely to be in the nucleus” wavefunction.