What is Prigozhin's (Wagner chief) motivation and endgame?

In My Humble Opinion
21

They occupy a lot of key terrain near the front. They also seem, ruble for ruble and man for man to be several times better than the MoD’s troops. If they simply melt away into the populace or are magic-wanded to Neverneverland, then Ukraine is suddenly on a roll and with momentum they’ll slam into the hapless MOD forces nearby the Wagner areas. Chaos will reign supreme on teh MoD side. Ukraine forces might make it to the Ukraine / Russia border in places.

That’s not war-winning for Ukraine, but that would be the biggest alteration in the terms of trade since, well … a long time ago.

That’s also an implausibly clean change. More realistically armed dudes used to a paycheck seldom quit the field quietly. If they aren’t paid by somebody, they’ll simply go local warlord in whichever direction offers the easiest pickings.
Which is probably more towards Russia proper, in Russian MOD- and Wagner- occupied far eastern Ukraine, than it is pushing towards / through Ukrainian forces.

Either way, Wagner falling to pieces is real bad news for the Russian state of play on Ukrainian territory.

At the same time, Wagner evaporating as a coherent force would probably be excellent for the stability of the government bureaucracy in Moscow. Which may or may not continue to include Putin at the helm.


We (the world) may be living through what may be the most dangers 36 hours since the Cuban Missile crisis. To be exceeded only by the 36 hours after that. Or not; this may fizzle rather quietly.

22

Pretty big vow to make when facing the Russian security apparatus. I mean yeah, as warlords go if he can keep his boys in good order he can probably hold up pretty well in a man-to-man field fight but he may just as well find himself delivered to the FSB in a small gift box by his own men. Unless Vlad is using him as a proxy for taking down the generals.

23

Wagner going for Moscow means 25,000 fewer battle hardened soldiers that Ukraine has to deal with, at a minimum.

Earlier I warned that ot could be a fake-out to catch Ukraine off guard somewhere. I no longer think this is possible. Once the generals got on Telegram and started calling out each other, it had to be real. This has got to be very destructive to Russian morale and big boost to Ukrainian morale.

As for what Prigozhin is actually up to, one possibility is that he believes that Russian soldiers are at a breaking point and will join him rather than fight other Russians. Or, he’s operating under Putin’s orders and they are going to throw the military and FSB under the bus for starting the war, offer up the heads of some generals to Ukraine, and sue for peace. Doubtful, but it’s one thing that would explain this behaviour. Another possibility is that there’s another player we haven’t seen yet - a general who orders his soldiers to stand down or even support Prigozhin, for instance.

Another possibility is that Prigozhin figured that he and his men were being srt up for sacrifice by the military, and he took action first. In that case, he’s got nothing to lose. Maybe he even cut a deal with Ukraine for asylum somewhere if he took his soldiers home and made trouble in Russia. If the government or military really was trying to kill him as he claims, why not? Who is he loyal to in that case?

One thing for certain: Ukraine and the rest of the world are learning a lot about internal division in Russia and the willingness of the men to fight, and it’s not good for Russia.

No matter what happens, Ukraine is in a better position today than they were yeaterday. Go Progozhin! Tie up the army for as long as you can.

24

(From Politico:)

According to Ian Garner, a Russia expert and author of a new book on the fallout of the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief has overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin has rolled the dice, and now the state is going to do away with him for good,” he said.

“I suspect Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does — money, freedom, prestige — without him. Why would the Wagner fighters side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death?” Garner said.

The chaos amounts to a death knell for the Wagner Group, which has been active not just in Ukraine but also in Africa, according to one analyst.

“Whatever this is, it is definitely the dismantling of Wagner,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the R-Politik consultancy firm, on her Telegram channel.

“This is the end of Prigozhin and the end of Wagner. An important moment: many within the elite will hold it against Putin that things have come this far and that the president did not react sooner. That’s why this entire story is also a blow to Putin.”

In his increasingly unhinged voice memos on Telegram, Prigozhin also [claimed] a Russian military helicopter had opened fire on a convoy of his troops — and that Wagner had shot it down.

25

If Putin gets rid of Wagner, there’s always whatever Erik Prince is calling his army nowadays.

26

Excerpt below.

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Think of this conflict not as a contest between the Russian state and a mercenary group, but a falling out among gangsters, a kind of Mafia war.

A government doing a lot of bad things in the world can make great use of a cadre of hardened and nasty mercenaries, and Prigozhin has been making his bones for years as a tough guy leading other tough guys, ultranationalist patriots who care more about Mother Russia than the supposedly lazy and corrupt bureaucrats in Moscow. The Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, is led by a political survivor named Sergei Shoigu, who has managed to stay in the Kremlin in one capacity or another since 1991. Shoigu [never served] in the Soviet or Russian military, yet affects the dress and mannerisms of a martinet.

Prigozhin and Shoigu, both personally close to Putin, have good reason to [hate each other.]. Shoigu’s forces have been humiliated in Ukraine, shown up both by the Ukrainians and Prigozhin’s mercenaries (a point Prigozhin hammers home every chance he gets). Prigozhin claims that Shoigu has withheld ammunition and supplies from Wagner, which is probably true; a defense minister is going to take care of his own forces first. The two men have a lot of bad blood between them, and Prigozhin might have been hoping to displace Shoigu or move up somehow in the Moscow power structure. But Shoigu is no rookie, and [a Russian Defense Ministry edict] was about to go into force requiring all mercenaries to sign up with the Russian military, which would place them under Shoigu’s control.

This order was likely an important part of the conflict we’re seeing now. I do not know why the Russians would hit Wagner’s forces—or whether that is what happened—but the tension between Prigozhin and Shoigu was unsustainable. Prigozhin, however, is a hothead, and this time, he has gone too far, essentially forcing Putin to choose between them. The fact that there is now an arrest warrant out for the Wagner chief means that Putin is siding with his defense minister; meanwhile, the Russian security service, the FSB, [called ] Prigozhin’s actions a “stab in the back” for Russia’s soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

My friend and veteran Russia-watcher Nikolas Gvosdev summed it up to me tonight by saying that Prigozhin might be the better fighter and leader, but Putin is choosing loyalty over competence. As [Michael Corleone] might say: It’s the smart move.

…

Of more concern is the possibility that Prigozhin’s gambit all along was the leading edge of an effort by hard-right Russian nationalists to push Putin to be even more violent in Ukraine, more confrontational with the West, and perhaps even to provoke a conflict with NATO… So far, tonight’s chaos does not seem to involve the U.S., NATO, or even Ukraine, but a fight among Russian gangsters, in part over whether Russia is being brutal enough in a war of unprovoked aggression, is something to watch.

28

Tom Hagen: “Tessio. I always thought it would be Clemenza.”
Michael: “It’s the smart move. Tessio was always smarter.”

But I don’t think Prigozhin is being the smart one here. Although, who knows what is lurking in the murky chaos of Russian power politics. I suppose he could end up on top - stranger things have happened. But it doesn’t look good for Wagner.

Shoigu is a full general, by the way. So he can rightfully go out and about in full uniform and technically probably is supposed to in his official function as a matter of proper dress. It’s just that he didn’t rise through the ranks in the normal fashion. He was appointed head of the civil defense branch and was handed military ranking to go with it and kept rising.

29

Unlike January-6, we can finally see a good coup for a good cause.

30

Yes,it looks sort of like a coup, in the classic fashion.
But not quite, and this is what I don’t understand.

In a “classical” coup, (like has happened in various African countries), the army surrounds the parliament building, enters the presidential palace and kills the president, takes control of the radio station , and announces that now General XYZ is the top man. The entire army stands behind him and the population has no choice but to submit.

But in this situation in Russia, the army is vastly bigger than Wagner,
So how would a coup work?
A few thousand Wagner loyalists with no tanks and no air power, facing the entire Russian army and air force? Sure, they could storm the Kremlin, and hold the building for a week or two, for a symbolic show of force. But the city of Moscow is huge, and would remain untouched. And the rest of the Russian army is unlikely to suddenly feel loyal to Prigozhin. Very soon Wagner will run out of food and ammunition, and it will all be over. The only effect would be to embarrass Putin, but it wouldn’t remove him from power.
So I just don’t get it, and don’t understand what kind of endgame Prigozhin is dreaming of

31

My opinion, to be taken with suitable grain of salt because I pulled it from my behind: Prigozhin has been laying the groundwork for this putsch for a while, securing allies within the armed forces, and now he (rightly or wrongly) thinks that enough units would go to him that he can afford an outright “invasion” of Russia starting 1000 km away from Moscow.

32

I would think he’s kept this in mind ever since deployment in Ukraine, but he’s taking advantage of the circumstances, without Putin messing up so badly and wasting his resources Prigozhin would not have the opportunity. He’s worried about staying alive, and maybe worried a little about his men, but mainly worried that without his men he’ll be dead in minutes.

He sits between Ukraine and Putin right now. Ukraine didn’t back down to his army while the Russian army probably will. I think he’ll try to kill as many Russians as he can because he sees a choice between power and death ahead of him.

This all could change much in Prigozhin’s favor if he can find a friend with some political skill.

33

The Russian army is in Ukraine, as is demonstrated by the fact that Wagner took a major Russian city with no resistance. I still doubt they will succeed, but it’s likely Russia has very few ground forces not already fighting in Ukraine.

34

From the BBC Today:

Numerous videos have now appeared online showing armed men and armoured vehicles surrounding the heaquarters of Russia’s Southern Military Disctrict - a key decision-making centre for the war in Ukraine, located in the southern city of Rostov on Don.

At present it is unclear whether these armed men are regular army seeking to secure the building, or members of the Wagner private military company. It is notable, however, that their weapons seem to be trained on the building itself.

We’ve verified several videos filmed outside the disctinctive building, which is located on a busy street in the south of the city.

Despite the dramatic scenes, normal life seems to be continuing in the city, with youngsters gathering on street corners to live stream events, and road sweepers calmly going about their business.

The video shows tanks manoeuvring and soldiers laying prone on the pavement with machine guns. It also shows some young people hiding behind a hedge, filming, and a guy sweeping the street with broom and scoop in the middle of it all.

35

I would assume there should be a fair bit of Rosgvardia about. Putin, like all autocrats, would feel naked without at least some level of Praetorian Guard internal security blanket in place for just such an eventuality. Particularly the Independent Orders of Zhukov, Lenin and October Revolution Red Banner Operational Purpose Division of the National Guard Forces Command of the Russian Federation ‘F. E. Dzerzhinsky’ (remember that name, there will be a quiz later) aka the former ODON. Which is closer to a Praetorian army division, unlike the more standard gendarmie/riot police. I think there was chatter about them fully deploying in Moscow in 2022, but who knows now.

But I agree it is hard to say how much in the way of combat troops are around in reserve. I would presume some, but even with an up-to-date order of battle it would be pretty hard to say which units are up to strength and which are paper battalions. If any air mobile/air assault units are still more or less fully functional, they should be plenty man-portable enough to react rapidly (or rapidish) and Russian airborne troops tended to be relatively elite compared to the regular ground forces back in the day. But they took heavy casualties in the first months of the war, so difficult to say what kind of shape they’re in at the moment.

36

ninja’d by Tamerlane

37

The subreddit r/Ukraine has a pinned speculation thread “botox man vs captain piggy”.

38

I wonder how many Russians on the sidelines Prigozhin can rally, given that he’s not fighting for much of anything.

His message seems to be:

My mercenaries didn’t get what they needed to win. The generals are too comfortable. (And very recently, after committing war crimes in Ukraine:) Ukraine was not a threat to Russia. (And implicitly: I want to replace Putin.)

Granted, I understand that segment of Russians who want change for the sake of change. But this guy is not offering anything else.

39

My wild guess is that it would be most convenient to Someone if Prigozhin were to be “shot while resisting arrest”, or something similar (rather than have him ranting in a courtroom), his more senior underlings ferreted away to labour camps and the foot-soldiers absorbed into the regular forces - and above all, all that money from Wagner’s African mining interests to be nationalised.

Maybe Prigozhin wasn’t in school the day their history lesson covered the eventual fate of the streltsy. But I bet Someone was.

But whether it will turn out that way, who knows?

40

It seems some of the regular military is standing -by and not helping or opposing Wagner. I think they haven’t decided who’s going to win yet.

Remember, Moscow’s annual May Day parade only manged to muster one tank for the show. I’m not sure where people think Moscow will get a force sufficient to oppose 25,000 troops threatening to march on it. I think their troops are mostly in Ukraine or by the Chinese border.

If this progresses I think the war in Ukraine is done. Putin needs to bring them all home to defend him.

If Prighozhin manages to take control I’d bet he ends the war in Ukraine to get the West to acknowledge his control.

Also, as an aside, China might see an opportunity here to nab parts of Siberia.

Dangerous times.

Prigozhin, who heads private military group Wagner, said his forces had taken control of Russian military facilities in the city of Rostov-on-Don, an important operations base for Russia’s war in Ukraine. He threatened to march on Moscow if defense minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia’s top general Valery Gerasimov did not meet with him in Rostov.

The Wagner group also claimed to have seized Russian facilities in a second city, Voronezh, some 600 kilometers (372 miles) to the north of Rostov-on-Don. The governor of the Voronezh region, Alexander Gusev, said the Russian military were engaging in “combat measures” in the area.

In its daily intelligence update, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Prigozhin’s insurrection “represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

The briefing said some Russian forces had “likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.” -SOURCE