If Prigozhin is going to Belarus, is he taking the Wagner army with him? Are they still going to fight in Ukraine?
It seems a little dangerous for Putin to allow a mutinous leader of a huge mercenary army to move into Belarus, a country already wavering in support for Putin’s war.
Maybe he and Putin cut a deal to force Belarus into the war. Maybe it was the olan all along to make Prigozhin look like he was taking on Putin, then ‘allowed’ to go to Belarus, when the original intention was always to send Wagner into Belarus to draw them into the war. This way they get caught off guard.
But I’m just spitballing. Anything makes about as much sense as what we’ve seen. A baffling series of events right from the start. That suggests to me that we are making category errors in understanding what’s going on and there are strange internal political battles we aren’t privy to.
I have to agree. My own compasses are all tumbled here too. Just when you think you have a coherent understanding, it kaleidoscopes on you. Calvinball got nuthin’ on PutGozhinBall.
I gotta admire these guys’ skills at juggling chainsaws though. At least so far nobody has dropped one.
This, I certainly agree with. Russia is notoriously as much a conceptual trap that invites misdirected speculation as its vast terrain is a literal trap for would-be invaders. I’m as fascinated and riveted by anyone about the craziness being reported, but I am also trying to remind myself that we won’t have any real idea about what happened for probably months.
The Kremlin has said that Wagner forces that did not join the apparent rebellion will not be prosecuted and will join the Russian Ministry of Defense. Of course, that leaves open what happens to those who DID join the rebellion. I can’t imagine Putin would let Prigozhin to take an army with him. Did Prigozhin abandon his men as part of the deal?
The worldwide history of irregulars absorbed into the regular forces following some kind of peacemaking deal is not good. Whether it’s FARC in Colombia or Al Sadr’s Mahdi Army in post-Hussein Iraq, the general outcome is poor.
The absorbed “soldiers” are usually badly mistreated, marginalized career-wise, and are mostly just being bought off with meager pay for a few months until they can be induced to leave & go back to their villages, but this time sans weapons and organization. Of course since thuggery / banditry is the only trade they know, the cycle repeats. That will be the fate of most Wagner demobees.
To the degree Wagner actually still has a hard core of truly professional world class mercenary operators, those folks might well assimilate into MoD. Or might better slip into a different shady corner of the world. Blackwater (or whatever they’re called now (actually “Constellis Holdings”)) is always hiring.
Bringing in President Alexander Lukashenko as a broker at first seemed an odd choice on Putin’s part, but it makes a bit more sense in light of the supposed deal. The Belarusian autocrat could personally vouch for Prigozhin’s safe passage; Lukashenko has no connections in Moscow that are more important than Putin; he does not live or work in the Kremlin and so he was a secure choice to carry out Putin’s terms; he owes Putin his continued rule and has no reason to betray him. Also, sending in Lukashenko was something of a power move: Putin is a former intelligence officer, and [in that world] Prigozhin is merely a scummy convict. The two men were friendly before this, but they were not equals. It would have been a huge loss of face for the president of a great power to negotiate with his former chef in person.
Prigozhin gets to stay alive, at least for the moment, but his life as he knew it (and maybe in any sense) is over. Putin, however, is now politically weaker than ever. The once unchallengeable czar is [no longer invincible]. The master of the Kremlin had to make a deal with a convict—again, in Putin’s culture, among the lowest of the low—just to avert the shock and embarrassment of an armed march into the Russian capital while other Russians are fighting on the front lines in Ukraine.
Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. Putin, however, may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation. All of the options were terrifying: Ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men would have been a huge risk, especially because those men (and their hatred of the bureaucrats at the Defense Ministry) have at least some support among Russia’s officers and political elites. Killing Prigozhin outright was also a high-risk proposition; with their leader dead and the Russian military closing in, the Wagnerites might have decided to fight to the death.
I’m still wondering if Prigozhin is taking his ‘insurrectionist’ Wagnerites withnhim - the ones who are no longer welcome to join the military because they took part in the action. I think that’s about 25,000 soldiers.
If not, what happens to them? Do they scatter into the population and try to get out of the country? Or go to Belarus?
I really do wonder if Prigozhin has gained control of some nuclear weapons, that could explain why he is a bit confident that he can make Putin keep his word.
So, they’re still better off than the actual Russian troops/draftees!
Honestly, I expect that they’ll be given the worst of all possible equipment / supplies and be sent to the front with 2-3x the number of ‘security forces’ behind them, and allowed to prove their loyalty by refusing to retreat or surrender.
The 20% or that may survive doing this (probably repeatedly) will probably be happy to keep their heads down as far from conflict as possible.
And if I were in their shoes I’d be finding any way to surrender to Ukrainian forces, EVEN considering they’d probably be charged as accessories to war crimes.
Better to be tried in the Hague than buried in the Kremlin Wall*.
* The Kremlin used to have a necropolis for Soviet heroes in one of its walls, but it filled up in the 80’s and was closed. But it was too good a line to not use.