# What is public opinion on who is to blame for the shutdown? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2013, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722 "2013-10-08T21:29:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/101 "2013-10-11T02:41:53Z")
You kidding? That horse would be one hundred and ten by now! ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/102 "2013-10-11T02:46:34Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You kidding? That horse would be one hundred and ten by now! You… you… There are no words. Go to your room. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/103 "2013-10-11T02:51:56Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Where the heck is Silver anyways? Same question. Nothing on fivethirtyeight since the 25th of September. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/104 "2013-10-11T02:52:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > You kidding? That horse would be one hundred and ten by now! [shrug] So beat him. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/105 "2013-10-11T03:25:03Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Same question. Nothing on fivethirtyeight since the 25th of September. He left the NYT and went to ESPN (he started in sports analysis). He is planning on reopening [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) but has a temporary home with [Grantland.com](http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown). I’m a little amused at how, after his public nerdfight with PPP, they’re now a “dubious polling firm”. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/106 "2013-10-11T03:27:25Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Same question. Nothing on fivethirtyeight since the 25th of September. Silver sold [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) to ESPN. He will be launching an independent website (with links to ESPN sites as well as Disney and ABC) sometime in the fall. It will feature data-driven analysis on various subjects including politics, sports, science, economics, etc. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/107 "2013-10-11T03:29:28Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [shrug] So beat him. Are you advocating flogging a dead horse? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/108 "2013-10-11T03:31:21Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > He left the NYT and went to ESPN (he started in sports analysis). He is planning on reopening [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) but has a temporary home with [Grantland.com](http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown). > > I’m a little amused at how, after his public nerdfight with PPP, they’re now a “dubious polling firm”. Thanks for the link! I take back what I said about him missing out on commenting on the shutdown. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/109 "2013-10-11T04:20:37Z")
> [@jasg](#): > > Are you advocating flogging a dead horse? “Flogging” is rather a euphemism. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/110 "2013-10-11T04:29:27Z")
And let’s just keep it that way, OK? When Trigger passed away, his remains were preserved by the very best taxidermic science, and placed on display in the Roy Rodgers Museum. Dale Evans was said to have remarked she had been hoping for the last twenty years to be stuffed and mounted. bad-a-boom, _ting_! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/111 "2013-10-11T04:46:38Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > When Trigger passed away, his remains were preserved by the very best taxidermic science, and placed on display in the Roy Rodgers Museum 😕 Then what went into those Roy Rogers’ sandwiches?! Not **beef!** ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/112 "2013-10-11T15:48:54Z")
According to the latest [NBC/Wall Street Journal poll](http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/10/20903624-nbcwsj-poll-shutdown-debate-damages-gop?lite) it’s not looking good for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/113 "2013-10-11T16:17:47Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > He left the NYT and went to ESPN (he started in sports analysis). He is planning on reopening [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) but has a temporary home with [Grantland.com](http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown). > > I’m a little amused at how, after his public nerdfight with PPP, they’re now a “dubious polling firm”. He does come off a little buttsore. And honestly sounding more like one of those talking heads he derides than offering anything data-driven. Fine to say there is not enough data to say much yet about long term impact. Fine to be dismissive of PPP (although I appreciate Wang’s analysis on this greatly). But boy while I do not argue with the assertion that much of the media over rates the impact that the '95/'96 shut downs had over a more moderate or longer term, I’d expect him to bring more data analysis to the table to support the assertion. It’s there. Even I’ve done a more in depth number analysis than that! There is a real analysis to be made of the 24 House districts that actually are considered swing, looking at each one and seeing how much swing needs to happen and given past elections in those districts how reasonable such is, factoring in current economic conditions, current disgust for incumbency, etc. Even if one wants to take PPP as “a dubious” house and one applies caution to thinking that thoughts at this point in time will be meaningful in a year. Wang begins such an analysis. Silver is just repeating the concept that gerrymandering has made it harder for the Democrats. He is either currently way busy with setting up the new venture or has gotten lazy (or both) but I am unimpressed. I have a feeling Wang will be my go-to for number analysis this season. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/114 "2013-10-11T17:27:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > He does come off a little buttsore. And honestly sounding more like one of those talking heads he derides than offering anything data-driven. He probably just shouldn’t have done anything with this issue. I doubt he has the time for any detailed look at it. The new 538 is going to be a full-blown destination with multiple staff, multiple writers, and a host of free-lanced stuff. Look at his hiring page, he’s trying to build a full site staff from (essentially) scratch. Give him about 6 months to settle in to the new gig (say about April-May of next year) and I think 538 will not only be back, but better than ever. But it’s gonna take time and he’s better off focusing on that then publishing half-thought-out articles on the crisis (or should it be crises?) du jour. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/115 "2013-10-11T17:39:40Z")
The whole new venture thing seems to me to come off like a chef that starts selling frozen dinners with his/her name on it. I do not have high hopes. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/116 "2013-10-11T17:50:27Z")
New poll from [Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research](http://gqrr.com/articles/2013/10/11/new-national-survey-shutdown-severely-damaging-gop/) (Democracy Corps): > [@](#): > > By a 16-point margin, 43 to 27 percent, voters blame the Republican in Congress, rather than President Obama and the Democrats, for the government shutdown. > […] Perhaps most important, on the generic ballot, Democrats now lead by double digits, 46 to 36 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/117 "2013-10-12T03:46:00Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > It won’t play against him, because the media won’t let it. :dubious: Yeah its the media:rolleyes: > [@](#): > > Of course this is going to go over like gangbusters on the SDMB - they order the Obama Flavor-Aid in the Big Gulp size. > > Regards, > Shodan You mad bro? When you bluff (and not raising the debt ceiling better be a bluff) and someone comes back at you all in, you’re supposed to fold. As long as Obama doesn’t cave in, the Republicans are in an untenable position. They have threatened the economic welfare of the nation to push their agenda and now it looks like they can either surrender unconditionally and take a huge hit or kill the hostage and get mowed down at the next election. > [@DSeid](#): > > I honestly don’t think he has too much choice. He will end up thowing them something that will be enough face-saving to allow them to move on, but he cannot throw enough that any future House minority concludes that this tactic works. That’s just the right thing to do for the needs of governance in the future IMHO. As political theater he wants to demonstrate firmness but not rigidity - a tough thing to pull off. I don’t see why he has to give them anything? His rhetoric indicates he will not. > [@](#): > > Another political theater aspect is that Obama may, in those negotiations, “give” things that he wants to give but that he would prefer to appear to be forced into … Keystone and some aspects of entitlement reform … things that otherwise would piss off his own core. I suspect this may be the fig leaf but then he’s not really giving up anything. > [@BigT](#): > > All I know is that I’ve seen some anti-Republican stuff from people who are pretty conservative. Like them spreading the meme that, since the shutdown, they no longer feel the need to pronounce Boehner’s name correctly. Or something else I’ve mentioned where people are saying things like “Just go ahead Obamacare happen, and they’ll see it’s horrible. Stopping the government isn’t going to work.” > > I mean, I’ve seen some general anti-Obama stuff in the meantime, but nothing that has anything to do with the shutdown. > > Almost forgot: I’ve also had at least one person say they supported the shutdown because they think it’s what the country needs to get back into financial shape. So that person clearly thinks it’s the Tea Party’s fault. I’ve also seen Republicans say “just let Obamacare happen and then people will see how horrible it is” The problem is that the objection to Obamacare is not that it will be unpopular (you don’t have to take the economy hostage to overturn an unpopular law), their concern is that it will be popular and create another permanent entitlement. Then the Republicans will have to claw and scratch to try and fix Obamacare with little to no political capital because they were so dead set against it in the first place. I’ve also heard a lot more “a pox on both their houses” sort of sentiment than I thought I would from people who are usually more thoughtful about these things. > [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > The Republicans said that about Social Security. They also said it about Medicare. Those programs seem mildly popular amongst Americans. Well they’re both still unpopular among conservatives. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/118 "2013-10-12T04:05:56Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I don’t see why he has to give them anything? His rhetoric indicates he will not. His record indicates otherwise, but perhaps he’s finally fucking learned. > [@](#): > > their concern is that it will be popular and create another permanent entitlement. For some, the second item there may be a factor, but fundamentally it’s only the first one - that the party that fought Social Security and Medicare and has paid the electoral price ever since, will continue that pattern for another couple of generations. Their electoral position is already hanging by a thread - they can no longer win the Presidency on their own efforts and merits, given demographics and the EC; they are in a minority in the Senate when in a more traditional world they’d have taken it last time, and they hold the House only by gerrymandering and that may be very short-lived. The American voting tradition of party-splitting is pretty well broken now, they’re the ones that broke it, and their best opportunity now is to keep the base riled up enough to turn out on Election Day. > [@](#): > > I’ve also heard a lot more “a pox on both their houses” sort of sentiment than I thought I would from people who are usually more thoughtful about these things. Oh, that shit is just easy \*and \*fun, and gives you a warm sense of self-righteousness too. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/119 "2013-10-12T04:44:42Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > His record indicates otherwise, but perhaps he’s finally fucking learned. … > > … The American voting tradition of party-splitting is pretty well broken now, they’re the ones that broke it, and their best opportunity now is to keep the base riled up enough to turn out on Election Day. … As to the first part, call it a fig leaf, or call it “trading” … the rhetoric has included the promise of dealing … just no explicit deals made while the hostage is held with a gun to the head. The promise of a deal to be made later is within his position however. As to the second, [this poll](http://www.gallup.com/poll/157739/americans-preference-shifts-toward-one-party-government.aspx), from before this mess, showed how true it is. Big shifts with a preference for the same party being higher than ever before (38%) and preference for different parties lower than ever (23%). [A WSJ poll](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/259985-poll-majority-favors-single-party-control-of-washington) from a year ago also showed the same: a preference for same party by a margin of 52 to 39, compared to 29 to 62 two years ago. > [@](#): > > The poll’s findings mark the first time since 1986 that a majority of voters has favored one-party control, as well as a significant shift since the same survey taken in 2010. … Hard to know how much more so people feel that way now. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2013, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722/120 "2013-10-12T05:43:37Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > His record indicates otherwise, but perhaps he’s finally fucking learned… OK, reality check. Assuming that, for whatever reason, Obama comes to the conclusion that the Insane Clown Posse will fucking do it, will send the our economy and God alone knows what all over the cliff… Doesn’t he _have_ to cave? If the damage to him is bad, and the damage to us is bad, but the alternative is _disaster_, isn’t it his duty to give up? If I wanted firm machismo and bravado, I would have voted for McCain. I didn’t, and I don’t. Keep in mind, some of the idjits have been publicly saying, sure, go ahead, cut the red wire, nothing will happen! So Krugman and a bunch of liberal economists say it would be a nuclear shitstorm, but Rand Paul and Ted Cruz know all about that stuff and they say everything will be ok… To oversimplify, if he’s playing chicken with people who are too fucking stupid to flinch…then he _has_ to, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-public-opinion-on-who-is-to-blame-for-the-shutdown/670722.md?page=7)