# What is the Effect of Global Warming on Hurricanes? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 23, 2005, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006 "2005-09-23T03:11:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/1 "2005-09-23T03:11:25Z")
I’m sure everybody’s noticed all the hurricanes lately. They seem to be getting more frequent and they’re getting meaner. One cannot help but wonder how much effect global warming is having on these things. There also seems to be a growing consensus that the warming of the oceans is [amping these things up.](http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9429241/) > [@](#): > > Scientists say one season, even like this one, cannot indicate anything about climate change. But those same measurements show that in the past 50 years the oceans have gotten one degree warmer. That may not sound like much, but the experts say it is a lot of energy. > > Indeed, recent studies show that, worldwide, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has doubled with that one degree change and that’s a source of worry. > > “At the moment we’ve only warmed up one,” says Dr. Stephen Schnieder, a climatologist at Stanford’s Institute for International Studies. “What happens when we warm up three or five degrees — which is projected in the next several decades to the end of the century?” Sir John Lawton, the environmental chief of Britain, is calling Katrina and Rita the “smoking gun” evidence for [Global warming.](http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article314510.ece%5B/url) He has also had some rather harsh words for what he calls “climate loonies” in the US who deny the threat of Global Warming. > [@](#): > > Asked about characterising them as “loonies”, he said: “There are a group of people in various parts of the world … who simply don’t want to accept human activities can change climate and are changing the climate.” > > “I’d liken them to the people who denied that smoking causes lung cancer.” Now I admit that I’m no climatologist but it seems like the people that know this stuff are fairly solid on the conclusion that GW exists and that it’s affecting the weather. So let’s talk about this. How much do we really have to worry? Are we looking at a future where hurricane seasons are going to become worse and worse? If so, will that wake people up to GW, and is there anything we can do about now? I’m really glad I live in the middle of a continent but I’m getting pretty anxious about seasons to come. Am I too worried, or am I not worried enough? ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/2 "2005-09-23T03:36:36Z")
I thought the general idea was that there are cycles of calm and then violent hurricanes in the Atlantic (IIRC, around 30-40 years per cycle) and we are now entering a violent period. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard any name for this type of cycle so I can’t search for more information on this very easily. It would take an enormous amount of energy to raise the ocean temperature by one degree (C?), though. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 7:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/3 "2005-09-23T07:59:35Z")
> [@mstay](#): > > I thought the general idea was that there are cycles of calm and then violent hurricanes in the Atlantic (IIRC, around 30-40 years per cycle) and we are now entering a violent period. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard any name for this type of cycle so I can’t search for more information on this very easily. > > It would take an enormous amount of energy to raise the ocean temperature by one degree (C?), though. You’ve seen that big burning thing in the sky? The oceans have already warmed one degree and will continue warming. Ocean temp affects hurricane strength therefore whatever cycles are in place are irrelevant to some extent because global warming will give them a kick. Violent and frequent become even more violent (don’t know about frequent). ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/4 "2005-09-23T08:49:06Z")
I was listening to an interview with an expert on Radio 4 this morning; he said that hurricanes are associated with warm ocean temperatures (I don’t think anyone actually disputes this bit), and that there is a range of different conditions that results in a proportional range of different severities of hurricane. It may be that the range ‘maxes out’ at a certain level, so that further increases don’t result in proportionally greater severity, but what global warning will do is to reset the _baseline_ of that range to a higher level - so that the conditions resulting in the more severe hurricanes will be more likely to occur. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/5 "2005-09-23T15:17:48Z")
I’m no climatologist either, but I’ve not seen a consensus emerge from those folks who are experts that global warming (something I don’t even think all the ‘experts’ agree on…or at least agree on what it means) is the direct cause of the current crop of hurricanes…or even that global warming will cause more hurricanes, or more intense hurricanes for that matter (I’ve heard SOME ‘experts’ say either of those, and some say neither, i.e. no consensus). Here is an article posted on [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/NATURE/9909/17/floyd.global.warming/) that briefly talks about some of the issues: > [@](#): > > (CNN) – Hurricanes are born in the tropics for a reason: warm water is their fuel. > > So some researchers are looking into whether a warmer Earth could bring stronger tropical storms with higher winds and more destruction. > > “Certainly, if we warm up the atmosphere that’s gonna have effects on the current weather patterns,” said John St. John, a research scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology > > “But our ability to model these is limited by what we understand.” > > Scientists say that so far, hurricane history provides no evidence of any connection between global warming and hurricanes. > > “As recently as four or five years ago, we had a very active season with strong hurricanes – 1995,” said Edward Rappaport of the National Hurricane Center. > > “Just two years later though was a very quiet year. Now we’re back at an active year. It’s hard to pinpoint a relationship between that and global warming, at least at this point.” > [@](#): > > Looking into the next century, one study projected future hurricanes up to 20 percent stronger than today’s. > > But many researchers believe other factors – including La Nina and other big weather systems – will overpower any effect global warming might have. As with Global Warming itself, we just don’t have enough of a grasp yet on the actual science of how the weather works to be able to make accurate predictions. Theories that global warming are triggering more hurricanes, or more intense hurricanes are just that…theories. Perhaps they are true, perhaps not. Only more data is going to work out the pesky details that will prove or disprove those theories one way or another. Sort of like the more data necessary to prove out global warming itself, the human factor, and what it all means…and to be able to make accurate predictions of what the real world effects are going to be. -XT ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/6 "2005-09-23T15:22:42Z")
I found [another](http://www.techcentralstation.com/091404D.html) interesting article on this as well if anyone is interested: > [@](#): > > The other day a lady in my department saw me and said, “Well, George, with all these hurricanes it’s pretty clear that global warming is happening, right?” I think Jane was just being playful, because she’s heard me talk about global warming and knows of my “politically incorrect” viewpoint on this issue, Yet she raises a question that a lot of people have been asking: does the busy hurricane year in the Atlantic have anything to do with global warming? > > The short answer: no. > > The long answer: > > Long-term statistics on hurricanes are quite good, so we can have some confidence in the trends we see in hurricane counts. There are two reasons for this: (1) hurricanes are big, powerful storms and very hard to miss; (2) they are well-defined. The Saffir-Simpson scale uses wind speed (one-minute average) to define a hurricane’s strength, starting at 74 mph (Category 1) and ending at speeds above 155 mph (Category 5). Other rating systems use central pressure as a criterion. > > Figure 1, obtained from data provided by the National Hurricane Center, shows hurricane strikes (landfalls) by decade in the U.S. since 1900. The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, “the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined.” In the Gulf of Mexico there is “no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity,” according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, “Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased.” > > Granted, there has been an upswing in the Atlantic since 1995, and this year’s bumper crop of storms has struck Florida in numbers and intensities seldom occurring before. A sign of things to come, especially in a warmer world? Not according to Bill Gray’s Tropical Forecast group at Colorado State University. Gray, who has developed successful methods for predicting hurricane activity, said, “Various groups and individuals have suggested that the recent large upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity (since 1995) may be in some way related to the effects of increased man-made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). There is no reasonable scientific way that such an interpretation of this recent upward shift in Atlantic hurricane activity can be made.” > > And there is no reason to expect increases in hurricanes due to greenhouse warming. Climate models, for all their problems, are unanimous in at least one respect: they predict that most of the future warming will be in high latitudes, in the polar regions. This will reduce the north-south temperature gradient and make poleward transfer of heat less vigorous – a task in which tropical storms play a major role. All other things being equal, a warmer world should have fewer, not more, hurricanes. See especially the graph about hurricane strikes since 1900. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/7 "2005-09-23T15:30:01Z")
The OP offers a cittaion that begins with the (correct) statement: “Scientists say one season, even like this one, cannot indicate anything about climate change.” He then goes on to argue that this season says something about climate change. Climate is not weather. Weather is not climate. Global warming, to the extent it exists, is a climate change. The hurricane season this year is weather. We may not infer anything, one way or the other, from this year’s hurricanes alone. Period. They are irrelevant. They tell us nothing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/8 "2005-09-23T15:40:53Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > So let’s talk about this. How much do we really have to worry? Are we looking at a future where hurricane seasons are going to become worse and worse? If so, will that wake people up to GW, and is there anything we can do about now? I’m really glad I live in the middle of a continent but I’m getting pretty anxious about seasons to come. Am I too worried, or am I not worried enough? It’s unlcear what the effect of GW will be on hurricanes in general, since a warming in the Pacific (El Nino) acts to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic. I’m not sure what this means for cyclones (hurricanes in the Pacific), but Atlantic hurricanes could be fewer in number even if higher in intensity. A rise in sea levels due to the melting ice caps is a bigger problem for coastal cities, since the impact is permanent (in the sense that you can’t just pump out the water as in NOLA right now) and you needn’t be in a hurricane prone area for this to be a problem. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/9 "2005-09-23T15:41:50Z")
Another [article](http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=%5CNation%5Carchive%5C200409%5CNAT20040915c.html): > [@](#): > > Scientists Debunk ‘Global Warming’ Effect on Hurricanes > By Melanie Hunter > [CNSNews.com](http://CNSNews.com) Deputy Managing Editor > September 15, 2004 > > ([CNSNews.com](http://CNSNews.com)) - The recent onslaught of hurricanes has prompted some media outlets to mention “global warming” as a possible cause, but a team of climate researchers set the record straight. > > A group of climatologists, scientists, professors and other experts in climate change on Tuesday pointed out two “misconceptions” reported in the press about hurricanes and their relation to climate change, in a letter to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who chaired a Commerce Committee hearing examining recent scientific research concerning climate change impacts. > > “First is the erroneous claim that hurricane intensity or frequency has risen significantly in recent decades in response to the warming trend seen in surface temperature. Second is the claim that a future surface warming trend would lead to more frequent and stronger storms. We believe that both of these are demonstrably false,” the scientists wrote. > > They noted the National Hurricane Center reports in the last century the decade with the largest number of hurricanes to hit the U.S. was the 1940s, and the frequency of hurricanes has gone down since then. > > According to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, “Reliable data … since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased.” > > “Recent history tells us that hurricanes are not becoming more frequent,” the climate researchers wrote in the letter to McCain. No need to go on at this point. If one does a google search on ‘Hurricanes Global Warming’ most of the articles on the first page either outright debunk to notion, or at least argue against it. -XT ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/10 "2005-09-23T15:43:21Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > The OP offers a cittaion that begins with the (correct) statement: “Scientists say one season, even like this one, cannot indicate anything about climate change.” > > He then goes on to argue that this season says something about climate change. > > Climate is not weather. Weather is not climate. > > Global warming, to the extent it exists, is a climate change. > > The hurricane season this year is weather. > > We may not infer anything, one way or the other, from this year’s hurricanes alone. Period. They are irrelevant. They tell us nothing. no they don’t but as the Science magazine article shows (sorry link is behind a subscription firewall or something) that while the overall trend for Cat 1-3 hurricanes is heading down in the last 5 years, the trend for 4 and 5’s is going up. From latest Science magazine (quoted from a pdf so excuse the formatting) Is Katrina a Harbinger of Still More Powerful Hurricanes? > [@](#): > > Global warming and tropical cyclones are > naturally linked by the storms’ appetite for > heat. Tropical storms are heat engines that > draw their energy upward from warm ocean > water to drive their winds before expelling > waste heat to the upper atmosphere. So warming > the tropical oceans—in effect throwing > more wood on the fire—might be expected to > spawn more frequent or more intense tropical > cyclones. To find out whether warming has > done that, meteorologist Peter Webster of the > Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta and > his colleagues examined satellite records of > storms around the tropics, a history now > 35 years long. > > … > > Webster and colleagues seem to have been > one for two in their search for warming effects. > They found no long-term trend in the number > of storms per year, only natural ups and downs, > even as summer tropical sea surface temperatures > rose 0.5°C. In the North Atlantic, where > hurricane numbers have surged since 1995, > such variability arises from changes in the > strength of warm ocean currents (Science, > 1 July, p. 41). But the researchers did find a > sharp increase during the past 35 years in the > number of category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones, > > … > > That growing proportion of tropical > cyclones in categories 4 and 5 “is very consistent > with my results,” says Emanuel. As he > reported in the 4 August issue of Nature, he > calculated the total power released during the > life of Atlantic and western North Pacific > storms (the Pacific spawns about five times as > many storms as the Atlantic does) based on > reported maximum sustained winds. Because > of stronger winds and longer storms, this > power dissipation index rose between 40% and > 50% from the first half of the 45-year record to > the second, in step with rising ocean temperatures. > With two studies finding that the same > trends correlate with sea surface temperatures > in a half-dozen ocean basins, “it’s fairly well > established that the measure of hurricane > intensity has been increasing,” says Emanuel. Not conclusive by any means but how many cities do we want flooded or flattened, how many multi-billion dollar repair bills do we want to pay before we start taking global warming seriously? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/11 "2005-09-23T15:45:21Z")
The actual data (this from a recent [Science article](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844)) show that hurricanes are indeed more intense. > [@](#): > > We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. … global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones Of course correlation and consistency with modelling is not proof that global warming is the culprit. Could be coincidental. But the facts are that surface water temperature drives hurricane intensity, that global warming is increasing surface water temperaturres, and that hurricanes are consistently increasing in magnitude over the past thirty years. Couple this with demogaphics of more people in coastland communities and we do not have a pretty picture. This season of Katrina and Rita are unlikely to be atypical in the future. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/12 "2005-09-23T16:01:18Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > See especially the graph about hurricane strikes since 1900. You’re pointing out the one bit of information on that site that has the least to do with answering the question posed. Nobody is really concerned with “United States warming due to greenhouse gas emissions,” right? It’s global warming we’re all talking about. Likewise, counting the number of hurricanes that **hit the US** doesn’t really bear much information about whether or not greater numbers and more powerful hurricanes are hitting Mexico, Central America, or South America. If there’s a graph that shows the number of hurricanes in the world, and their strength, then we’re talking. And I agree completely with Bricker, too. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/13 "2005-09-23T16:22:41Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > The OP offers a cittaion that begins with the (correct) statement: “Scientists say one season, even like this one, cannot indicate anything about climate change.” > > He then goes on to argue that this season says something about climate change. No I didn’t. I quoted a top British scientist who said that this hurricane season was proof of Global Warming but I offered no personal opinion as to whether he was right. > [@](#): > > Climate is not weather. Weather is not climate. > > Global warming, to the extent it exists, is a climate change. > > The hurricane season this year is weather. > > We may not infer anything, one way or the other, from this year’s hurricanes alone. Period. They are irrelevant. They tell us nothing. That’s fine, but I wasn’t asking whether we could infer anything from this one season. I was asking what effect GW has on hurricanes, an entirely different question. To me the most relevant, quantifiable factor is the warming of the ocean. There doesn’t seem to be any scientific dissent on the point that the surface temperature of the ocean adds more energy and increases the intensity of hurricanes. Of course it would be fallacious to take one season and try to extropolate what future seasons will be like, but that’s not what I did. My question is basically whether the warming of the ocean is souping up Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes into Cat 4’s and 5’s and whether that’s a trend that’s likely to continue. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/14 "2005-09-23T16:31:09Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Likewise, counting the number of hurricanes that hit the US doesn’t really bear much information about whether or not greater numbers and more powerful hurricanes are hitting Mexico, Central America, or South America. If there’s a graph that shows the number of hurricanes in the world, and their strength, then we’re talking. Er…good point. My assumption was that they were talking about a regional study, but only showing part of that study effecting the US. However there really is nothing there to back up that assumption. If I have the time I’ll see if there is a broader graph showing hurricane/tropical storm frequency/severity for the past century or so. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/15 "2005-09-23T16:32:12Z")
> [@mstay](#): > > I thought the general idea was that there are cycles of calm and then violent hurricanes in the Atlantic (IIRC, around 30-40 years per cycle) and we are now entering a violent period. _National Geographic_ had an article about this cycle last month. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/16 "2005-09-23T17:36:46Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I’m no climatologist either, but I’ve not seen a consensus emerge from those folks who are experts that global warming (something I don’t even think all the ‘experts’ agree on…or at least agree on what it means) is the direct cause of the current crop of hurricanes…or even that global warming will cause more hurricanes, or more intense hurricanes for that matter (I’ve heard SOME ‘experts’ say either of those, and some say neither, i.e. no consensus). > > Here is an article posted on [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/NATURE/9909/17/floyd.global.warming/) that briefly talks about some of the issues: > > As with Global Warming itself, we just don’t have enough of a grasp yet on the actual science of how the weather works to be able to make accurate predictions. Theories that global warming are triggering more hurricanes, or more intense hurricanes are just that…theories. Perhaps they are true, perhaps not. Only more data is going to work out the pesky details that will prove or disprove those theories one way or another. Sort of like the more data necessary to prove out global warming itself, the human factor, and what it all means…and to be able to make accurate predictions of what the real world effects are going to be. > > -XT Even accepting XT’s premises at face value, there’s an unspoken argument here, as used by some (not necessarily XT): Yes, and until then let’s let big biz pollute the shit out of everything because everybody knows it’s stupid to try and anticipate problems and prevent them. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Corrado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a88e4f/32.png) [@John\_Corrado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Corrado)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/17 "2005-09-23T17:55:04Z")
> [@Evil Captor](#): > > Even accepting XT’s premises at face value, there’s an unspoken argument here, as used by some (not necessarily XT): > > Yes, and until then let’s let big biz pollute the shit out of everything because everybody knows it’s stupid to try and anticipate problems and prevent them. To which the counter-argument seems to be, “The better response is to shut down all American industry on the mere possibility that what we’re doing is harmful in any way.” ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/18 "2005-09-23T18:17:53Z")
> [@John Corrado](#): > > To which the counter-argument seems to be, “The better response is to shut down all American industry on the mere possibility that what we’re doing is harmful in any way.” Come now. Nobody advocates that. Cutting back on carbon dioxide emissions = shutting down all American industry in what respect? And who advocates that only America should do so? Nobody that I ever heard of. What exactly were the Kyoto accords about if not a global response? And how did the American leadership respond to the Kyoto accords? Like a bunch of greedy, stupid pigs. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/19 "2005-09-23T18:24:58Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > As with Global Warming itself, we just don’t have enough of a grasp yet on the actual science of how the weather works to be able to make accurate predictions. Theories that global warming are triggering more hurricanes, or more intense hurricanes are just that…theories. Perhaps they are true, perhaps not. Only more data is going to work out the pesky details that will prove or disprove those theories one way or another. Sort of like the more data necessary to prove out global warming itself, the human factor, and what it all means…and to be able to make accurate predictions of what the real world effects are going to be. > > -XT First, I think it fair to point out that the article you link to and cite is from 1999. Since then scientists have found some of the flaws in the data collection that made global warming “suspect”. The majority of the data indicate that global warming is an actual phenomenon. Now, whether or not global warming is the cause of the increased hurricane activity is still debatable and certainly not a given. Maybe it is just a “cycle”, maybe not. I’d guess that we don’t have enough data to prove that cycles are true or if there is some other cause. But here’s something I just don’t get. Whether or not it’s actually attributable to global warming, what is the harm in trying to address and reduce some of the believed causes of global warming? It will likely have increased costs, which are knowable and quantifiable, but it seems a huge risk to wait and see if soon all coastal areas of the southeast are uninhabitable because we want to wait for all of the data to come in. We can certainly work on reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and now have stronger economic incentives to do so, not the least of which is that OUR RELIANCE ON MIDDLE EAST OIL IS FUNDING THE TERRORISTS. We can take steps to scrub and clean smokestack emissions and their are immediate benefits, a possible secondary benefit being reduced mercury emissions. We KNOW that mercury is poisonous and it’s believed to be a very dangerous long term health risk. We can also start now to take other measures, such as using lighter road materials, to reduce possible atmospheric temperature increases. I’d rather do the above and find out we were wrong about global warming’s influence on hurricanes than to do nothing and find out that we were right, perhaps to late to do anything substantive about it. ---
**Author:** ![esquimalt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/4af34b/32.png) [@esquimalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/esquimalt)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2005, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006/20 "2005-09-23T18:37:41Z")
Here is a list of Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes. [Link](http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/cat5storms.htm) They are pretty spaced out over the years except for the last year & 1960-61. There were 4 Cat 5 hurricanes from Sept 1960 - October 1961. While global warming may have something to do with the recent hurricanes, a few big storms close together is not unprecedented. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-effect-of-global-warming-on-hurricanes/323006.md?page=2)