What is the Effect of Global Warming on Hurricanes?

That last statement is nothing more than a specious argument against oil use. It’s true, no doubt, that some amount of money from the petroleum industry finds its way to terrorists, but the implication that most oil producing nations of the Middle East actively support and fund terrorism is a shaky premise at best, and the (unstated) solution–to starve them all out–is counterproductive. You might as well decry Guinness drinkers for supporting the IRA.

There’s not (much) question that the average temperature of the global climate is increasing; there is significant disagreement among climatologists regarding how much it is increasing, whether the trend will accelerate or reverse, and the fundamental mechanisms behind the phenomena. The “harm in trying to address and reduce some of the believed causes of global warming” is that we’ll not only spend hundreds of billions–by some accounts, trillions–of dollars, but also reduce productivity in trying to meet some arbitrary criteria which a) may not be within our control, and b) may have no effect on global climate. This is waving a gun around in a dark room and hoping you hit an unseen intruder rather than shoot yourself in the leg. There are real costs, and real losses, in environmental restrictions. Most environmentalists actively reject any kind of cost vs. benefits analysis with regard to pollution; for the extreme, any pollution is wrong and must be stopped, an attitude that would result in famine and deindustrialization. And consider that nonindustrial nations generally have vastly higher rates of pollution per manufacturing unit or per capita gross product than developed nations because they can’t afford to reduce emissions or remediate polluted zones. “Caring for the environment” is a luxury of those whose income exceeds the necessities of life.

That being said, it is clear that this political administration is more beholden to commerical interests than conservation principles. But an honest approach has to make some assessment of the likelyhood of mitigation versus the cost of reduction efforts and the impact of each scenerio. I’ve no claim to be an expert on the “Kyoto Protocol” or its parent, the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” but it is the claim of many that it places undue restrictions upon the US while leveeing lax requirements on other nations. Perhaps that’s fair turnabout, considering the raw volume of pollution generated by the US in comparison to other developed nations, but it also means an additional challenge in economic global competition.

Regardless of the issue of pollution and whether we should reduce foreign oil dependence (yes, but for many other reasons), there is no rationale and no statistical basis for claiming that the current spate of hurricanes are the result of global warming or the policies of the current Administration. There are plenty of genuine complaints to be wielded without descending into casuistry.

Stranger

xtisme: I hardly think that TechCentralStation and CNSNews are the best sources of information! You do know who CNS News is run by, right?

Anyway, probably the best discussion of this is from the scientists at RealClimate. The basic facts from that discussion are these:

(1) It is impossible to say whether any single weather event, like Hurricane Katrina, was affected by global warming. [I.e., it is impossible to say it one way OR the other.] Think of an analogy where you have a set of loaded dice so that 6’s come up with twice the frequency of chance. Then, if you role a 6, you can never really say that 6 is due to the dice being loaded nor that that 6 would have come up anyway. You just don’t know.

(2) Most of the climate modeling (and basic physics) suggest that global warming will not have an appreciable effect on the frequency of hurricanes but will likely have an effect on their intensity. The higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is likely to lead to more powerful (e.g., Category 4 and 5) hurricanes.

(3) Is this detectable yet? A recent study in Nature (Emmanuel [2005]) detects an approximately 30 year trend toward higher sea surface temperatures and higher intensity of hurricanes. It is impossible to say if this is due to well-understood multidecadal cycles or whether it is due to global warming. The best tentative estimate may be that they are making roughly equal contributions. [I believe that just recently, there was another study that reached conclusions similar to Emmanuel by looking at a different measure of hurricane intensity.]

(4) For whatever reasons, SSTs have been very high across much of the Atlantic Basin and especially the Gulf of Mexico this year. This, and generally low shear conditions (which I believe has no known plausible connection whatsoever to global warming), are almost surely what is contributing to the very active season and the strong intensification of hurricanes. In fact, the hurricane center predicted a very active year on the basis of these (and other?) factors…And, you can also see that their specific forecasts for strong intensification of hurricanes like Katrina and Rita that were borne out were based on the high SSTs and low shear environment.

Here is a link to a nice FAQ written by Kerry Emmanuel himself on the subject.

Squink, That’s a good site to start from. One thing that should be addressed is the term “global warming”. To me, it’s often used to describe a man-made event in addition to a condition. It’s as if the planet is somehow locked into the year 1950 and any deviation is our fault. Climate will change “weather” we want it to or not (sorry).

What I have been wondering about is the ability to alter a hurricane (using it against itself). If it’s a function of heated ocean water can it be altered by seeding the leading edge of the storm to produce rain or would that create a greater temperature differential between sky and ocean and make things worse.

Correction, credit that site to jshore.

People, in general, confuse many issues.

(1) Is the frequency of category 5 hurricanes actually increasing?

It’s absolutely unclear from the data. They are so rare that finding a “trend” in the past 10, 20, or 1,000 years (if we had the date) would be absurd.

(2) Is the intensity of hurricanes actually increasing?

I’ll defer to people who have a better way of defining hurricane intensity than by the rough categories that they’re given.

(3) Is hurricane activity a direct result of global warming?

Absolutely not. The seasonal variation in temperature is still much, much greater than the observed temperature increase due to global warming. The global weather change due to El Nino and/or sunspot activity still dwarfs any effect of global warming.

A hurricane works on the temperature differential between the upper troposphere and the lower troposphere. That is, air gets warmed over the land or sea, and warm air (less dense) gets trapped under cold air (more dense), moves upwards, and creates a storm. Over 10 kilometers, adiabatic expansion will drive the temperature down about 60 Kelvin. A 0.2 K change in sea temperature won’t make that much of a difference.

(4) [republican]hurr hurr hurr That means global warming doesn’t exist, right?[/republican]

Absolutely not. The evidence for global warming isn’t based on hurricanes or sea level rising. The evidence for global warming is completely independent (i.e. satellite infrared measurements, sea buoys, weather balloons).

The effects of global warming are more real than detractors would have you believe (e.g. there will be real changes) but less drastic than scare artists would propose (e.g. The Day After Tomorrow). It won’t be noticable from year to year, but there will be effects such as an X% reduction in crop yields in the Midwest, or a Y foot rise in sea level over the next CENTURY.

Saudi Arabia (the princes, not the government, but it’s a thin line) were (and probably still are) a major funding source for al Qaeda. The KSA royal family’s income is almost entirely derived from oil revenue and secondary proceeds from this (brokering deals with companies that want to do business in KSA). Hence high oil prices benefit al Qaeda. Your Guiness analogy is false.

From the previously linked Science article, it isn’t all that hard to see the trend in 4 and 5 together at least.

Not so absurd. Well documented.

No idea to be honest. I simply picked several off the first page in a google search that seemed to be saying that at least some scientists were skeptical (this was to address the OP’s statement that it “seems like the people that know this stuff are fairly solid on the conclusion that GW exists and that it’s affecting the weather”…which seemed to imply that the majority of ‘experts’ were in line on this point, something that doesn’t seem very true).

Your FAQ seemed to make many of the same points that were made in some of the things I cited. For curiosity who runs the 3 cites I provided?

Thats true…I wasn’t really trying to address the Global Warming issue here though. More just trying to show the uncertainty about whether Global Warming is causing more hurricanes, and whether or not there is any consensus at all among the ‘experts’ on this issue.

-XT

Well, I didn’t complain about your CNN source. TechCentralStation “where free markets meet technology” is a conservative / libertarian site. Here is what SourceWatch has to say about it. As they note, one of its more recent embarrassing episodes was when one of their columnists on climate change, Roy Spencer (of Spencer and Christy, known for their analysis of satellite-based readings of global temperatures that originally showed a cooling trend but has shown more and more warming as other scientists point out corrections that need to be made in their data), wrote a column not only endorsing the teaching of intelligent design but repeating many of the false critiques of evolutionary theory and saying “One finally comes to the conclusion that, despite vigorous protests, belief in evolution and intelligent design are matters of faith… From a practical point of view, the intelligent design paradigm is just as useful to biology, and I believe, more satisfying from an intellectual point of view.” (Why a person who was known to be a climate change skeptic but was, I believe, reasonably well-respected as a scientist chose to hitch his wagon to intelligent design is beyond my comprehension!)

As for CNSNews, they were started by the right-wing media watchdog group Media Research Center (and that organization’s head, Brent Bozwell) to combat the supposed liberal bias in the news media as a whole. I think they make Fox News look sort of left wing. [url=]Here is their own description of their history:

Nice article about just this debate in the NYT today. Sorry, you need to register.

Another article on CNN today about this debate:

-XT

Well, here’s the way I see things, stricly from a practical viewpoint: Scientists have pretty much established that hurricanes draw their power from heat in the water. They’ve established that carbon dioxide could be causing global warming by trapping heat in the atmosphere. So as global warming heats up the planet, the oceans heat up and hurricanes become more severe.

Global warming could also lead to melting of the polar icecaps, flooding coastal cities throughout the world. Very Bad Stuff.

That said, weather and climate are both extremely complex systems, and climate operates in time frames that extend far beyond human history, much less that portion of human history when we’ve been scientifically knowledgeable enough to study climate cycles rigorously. It could be that these complex systems are responsible for global warming to a much greater degree than man made atmospheric pollutant. Or it could be that there will be some as-yet-unknown compensating mechanism that will counterbalance the pollutants.

And it could be that that compensating mechanism will come in the form of monkeys flying out of my butt.

Seriously, it seems to me that since we have a sound basis for believing that global warming is occuring and that it will have Very Bad effects on human society, the reasonable thing to do is to take steps to forestall it or at least minimize its effects. Anyone who thinks we ought to do nothing should have a counter-theory that attacks global warming with the same logic and clarity that global warming theorists have, and the same weight of evidence they have, and I’ve seen NOTHING like that from the anti-global warming side, nothing that’s even close.

Of course, without a really clear map of the timeline of global warming or the effects that it will have on us we shouldn’t proceed hastily or bankrupt ourselves just yet. Putting caps on carbon dioxide emissions and so forth seems eminently reasonable … you know, Kyoto accord kinda things.

This just in: Wilma is a cat. 5 and has produced the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic storm, with sustained winds of up to 175 freakin’ miles per hour. Cripes.

I know, proves nothing, but yikes. The hurricane season ends on 30th November, and if we get any more, we’ll break the records of most named storms and most hurricanes in a season. I’m sure, in retrospect, this year could push a few trend-lines up.

You know … like evolution is just a theory. :rolleyes:

Translation:

LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA!!!

It doesn’t PROVE anything conclusively, but it still MEANS something. It’s a data point indicating that hurricanes are becoming more severe. Doesn’t mean it was caused by global warming, but if you listen to the anti-global warming guys, you’ll get the impression that because evidence isn’t conclusive, it should be ignored. Not so.

Following jshore’s dice example, it seems that we should try to agree on some measure which could show a clear statistical trend over years and decades regarding whether or not hurricanes were worsening. How about this one, for starters?

No, that wouldn’t be a good one since global wealth has increased considerably since the 1950s. The key is to factor out the “normal” fluctuations. Hurricanes vary in intensity of a decades long cycle. I can’t remember if it’s 30 or 50 years, but somewhere in that timeframe. Supposedly, we’re at the peak of a cycle now, so even w/o human induced climate change (sometimes called global warming) we’d expect to be getting more hurricanes now.

People misunderstand what “theory” means in science. It does not mean a mere idea or explanation - that is a hypothesis. Instead, a scientific theory is a logically self-consistent model or framework for describing the behavior of a certain phenomenon, thus either originating from observable facts or supported by them. A theory is a systematic and formalized expression of all previous observations made that is predictive, testable, and has never been falsified.

Sua