# What is the future of Miami ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 10, 2015, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169 "2015-11-10T04:29:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2015, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/41 "2015-11-10T22:25:08Z")
Jeez guys, so much doom and gloom. This is no big problem, we just have to make the oceans deeper. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/42 "2015-11-11T00:33:54Z")
Let the dredging begin !!! ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/43 "2015-11-11T00:59:40Z")
[quote=“kenobi\_65, post:38, topic:737169”] We had a guest speaker at church a few weeks ago, who gave a presentation on climate change. He showed a video from Miami Beach, from the last year or two, in which the streets were all a foot or so underwater – not from rain or a storm surge, but just from a particularly high tide. Edit: found some of the video he showed on YouTube: [/QUOTE] Here is [another illustrative video](http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/eyes-on-the-rise-map). The video is interesting so I suggest watching the entire 3 minutes, but you can skip to the 40 second mark to see the flooding in Miami caused by high tide. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/44 "2015-11-11T01:15:15Z")
Just think of this from the point of view of the developer, whose grandfather sold large areas of florida swamplands to your grandfather at inflated prices. They will build these things, sell them to some climate change denier and take his money and runs. What happens in 50 years, or even 10 years, is no concern of his. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/45 "2015-11-11T01:32:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > 4 feet is worst case projection. The range is 1 to 4 feet. What would a 2.5 foot rise do to Miami? [This video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inf-Wj2Xm40) shows sea level rise in Miami in one foot intervals from 1 to 10 feet. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/46 "2015-11-11T03:40:34Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > If sea levels go up 4 feet, substantially every city & town within a mile of the shore will be severely damaged. Which in the east includes places like Boston, New York City, Washington DC, Charleston, Norfolk, etc. All of them will be wrecked and all more or less at the same time. The Gulf coast is less inhabited but there’s still Tampa, Houston, our old waterlogged pal New Orleans, and a bunch of more minor cities. Saying “within a mile of the shore” is a generalization that doesn’t apply everywhere. Much of the Gulf Coast has a very flat land and that much of a rise may go in a couple miles or more. This extends out to sea as well. You can wade a long way out and still not be submerged. On the Left Coast, there are places where a 4 foot rise won’t encroach even 20 feet onto land. Not saying it’s all like that, but in general, the terrain is much steeper than in the east and south. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/47 "2015-11-11T09:59:30Z")
Here’s a good article on what’s already happening in Norfolk, Virginia: > **[Looking for signs of climate change? Check the streets of Norfolk at high tide](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-norfolk-evidence-of-climate-change-is-in-the-streets-at-high-tide/2014/05/31/fe3ae860-e71f-11e3-8f90-73e071f3d637_story.html)** > > Effects of climate change are visible every high tide, but federal help is hard to come by for costly fixes I should clarify that my previous comment was in reference to what can happen in some regions, not the global MSL, which is likely to rise about 40 cm by 2050 and 80-100 cm by 2100 as a global mean, but it’s different in different regions and in some places is exacerbated by land subsidence. Norfolk is a good example of one of the regions already in trouble. This is a good illustration of how general sea level rise is amplified by storm surges: [http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/images/gw/causes-of-sea-level-rise/Storm-Surge-and-High-Tides-Magnify-Risks-of-SLR\_Full-Size.jpg](http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/images/gw/causes-of-sea-level-rise/Storm-Surge-and-High-Tides-Magnify-Risks-of-SLR_Full-Size.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/48 "2015-11-11T13:51:28Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Saying “within a mile of the shore” is a generalization that doesn’t apply everywhere. Much of the Gulf Coast has a very flat land and that much of a rise may go in a couple miles or more. This extends out to sea as well. You can wade a long way out and still not be submerged. > > On the Left Coast, there are places where a 4 foot rise won’t encroach even 20 feet onto land. Not saying it’s all like that, but in general, the terrain is much steeper than in the east and south. Agree completely. My “one mile” \*was \*a generalization / WAGged average. But … It’s also the case that more development happens in the flatter areas. I fly up and down the East coast every few days. There is a nearly continuous trail of beachfront or harbor-front cities, towns, & hamlets built at sea level plus at best a handful of feet extending from 50 miles south of Miami all the way to Boston. And 99% of that terrain is, as you say, real flat where the land meets the sea. Yes on the West coast there are some towns & cities up on the bluffs. E.g. Dana Point, Corona Del Mar, Santa Monica, Malibu, etc. OTOH there are many more where small rises will matter a lot. E.g. From Huntington Beach continuously north to Long Beach then again from Redondo Beach through to Venice. Parts of San Diego are well above sea level. Other parts not so much. Ditto San Francisco and Seattle. And for all these places the damage from salt water intrusion into drainage systems, underground utilities, and aquifers will extend much farther inland than the areas of simple inundation. It’s also the case that low tide, high tide, super-high tide, and storm surge each produce very different shoreline contours. NOAA has come to the recognition that while wind speed is what gets folks excited about hurricanes, it’s the storm surge inundation that does the serious economic damage. We can, and have, armored a lot of modern construction to readily withstand Cat 4 hurricane winds with only cosmetic damage. Cat 4 speeds are roughly once-in-a-century events for any given spot. So that represents a reasonable cost / benefit / risk tradeoff for the lifespan of most modern urban/suburban construction. Armoring the same buildings and underground infrastructure to withstand even 2 feet of salt water inundation is a whole 'nother kettle of dollars. A big, _big_, \*\*BIG \*\*kettle of dollars. I predict a financial panic when the public suddenly recognizes this is real. The actual water level rise will be very slow and gradual. But one day the public at large will wake up and tomorrow real estate all along the coasts will be simply unsellable, un-mortgageable, and uninsurable. Folks probably won’t suddenly move away in droves, but rather they’ll be suddenly trapped with unsellable suddenly worthless assets. And it’s the “suddenly” part that amplifies the financial disaster. Before the big financial crash in 2008 damn near anybody paying attention knew the economy was overextended and heading for a severe correction / slump. But almost nobody was able to predict \*when \*and the money to be made meanwhile was incredible. So many otherwise sober and thoughtful players were standing on the gas pedal as we were racing through the fog towards the completely known-to-exist cliff. This is/will be no different IMO. And I say that as a Florida waterfront homeowner at about 7 feet above zero water and 4 feet above typical high tide. I’m hoping to expire of old age before the turn of public consciousness. But I have to admit that “hope is not a plan”. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/49 "2015-11-11T15:34:23Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Agree completely. My “one mile” \*was \*a generalization / WAGged average. But … > > It’s also the case that more development happens in the flatter areas. I fly up and down the East coast every few days. There is a nearly continuous trail of beachfront or harbor-front cities, towns, & hamlets built at sea level plus at best a handful of feet extending from 50 miles south of Miami all the way to Boston. And 99% of that terrain is, as you say, real flat where the land meets the sea.(snip) Right as can be. I live in one of those areas. I’m 11.2 straight line miles from the Atlantic Ocean, and yet only 23 feet above mean high tide. That’s mean high tide. If we get a proxigean tide and a storm surge at the same time I’ve probably got 10 vertical feet between be and the ocean, and there’s a lot of people between me and the beach with most of them lower than I am. A three foot rise is sea level is going to make a lot of those home uninhabitable. ---
**Author:** ![Sparky812](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Sparky812](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sparky812)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/50 "2015-11-11T16:13:52Z")
> [@MrQwertyasd](#): > > You could maybe do a big civil engineering thing with dykes and walls like Hollland, but apparently the salt water is seeping up the water table because it’s all built on porous limestone. So it’s buggered really. Maybe it’ll become a strange kind of semi submerged ghost town with the remnants of the population boating between condos like wet Mad Max with added cocaine. There’s a novel in that idea somewhere. Awesome idea, maybe Kevin Costner can star in it! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2015, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169/51 "2015-11-11T16:30:19Z")
This [Stiltsville - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stiltsville) is a real world place on the outskirts of current Miami. As the article explains, it was more extensive pre- Hurricane Andrew. That is the Mad Max-ish future of current coastal settlements worldwide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-miami/737169.md?page=2)