# What Is The Future of the Middle East? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 30, 2015, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892 "2015-04-30T14:11:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/1 "2015-04-30T14:11:54Z")
I take a long view-I see the current conflicts as the end of the “old order” set up by the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1919 (which carved up the former Ottoman Empire into the countries we call Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, SA, etc.) The region was always unstable, and most of these nations were dictatorships, held together by strongmen like Assad, Saddam Hussein, etc. Even SA looks like it might fall apart (as a result of the war in Yemen). George Bush thought that the region would embrace democracy, and become peaceful, as sectarian struggles calmed down-he was totally wrong, and our invasion of Iraq set loose even more conflict (ISIS). My question: can this region stay in a state of war for decades? Is there any liberal, democratic movements that might save these nations? Or is the future one of continued conflict, with intolerance and terrible abuses of human rights? Once bad indication is the fate of ME Christians-they are leaving-they face genocide (from radical Islam). I haven’t mentioned Israel-it is the only progressive, modern country in the region-can it survive or will it be sucked in to the anarchy raging outside? ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/2 "2015-04-30T14:59:45Z")
The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. ---
**Author:** ![stillownedbysetters](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/41988e/32.png) [@stillownedbysetters](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stillownedbysetters)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/3 "2015-04-30T15:16:01Z")
This region is populated with ethnic groups who have despised each other for thousands of years. As you mentioned, they were artificially banded together into ‘countries’ that made geographic but not cultural sense. Without a strong hand on the tiller, those artifically created countries are bound to fall. You have a similar situation in the ME to what you had in Yugoslavia, also a country artifically created which banded together groups of people who had historically despised each other. When there was no longer a hand on the tiller there, an incredibly brutal civil war broke out and all those years of bottled-up grievances were settled in the worst possible way. I don’t think the ME countries have any interest in democracy. They’ve never had a system like that and forcing it on them just isn’t going to work. Sadly, I think we have to stand back and let them settle their grievances with one another and let the geographical boundaries find their natural locations based on culture and religion. IF there is one thing these people hate more than each other, it’s Americans. They don’t want our politics, our culture or our conception of right and wrong. I think the power nations and the UN need to step aside and let them settle their own issues and find their own type of government. Obviously we’ll need to keep an eagle eye on their nuclear capability and discourage them from the more outrageous human rights violations. What we, the other nations of the world, are doing now isn’t working. We’ve tried for years with zero success in this region. I don’t know what else we can do but stand aside and let these countries work out their historic grievances with one another and wait for the dust to settle. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/4 "2015-04-30T16:06:40Z")
I think continued war is what will happen. I think you could well see new countries develop. For example the current Syria and Iraq splitting into at least four countries: the Alawites in western Syria, the Sunnis in eastern Syria and western Iraq, the Shiites in Iraq and the Kurds in Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/5 "2015-04-30T16:28:49Z")
Continuing sand. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2015, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/6 "2015-04-30T18:59:39Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Is there any liberal, democratic movements that might save these nations? Don’t overvalue the general reduction of conflict in stable democratic countries. The transition is frequently more chaotic. The US, with a tradition of democratic institutions, still had it’s issues. We managed to peacefully negotiate changing the very nature of our government early in independence (Articles of Confederation giving way to the Constitution) but in the process plastered over one of the biggest disagreements that delayed but didn’t prevent our bloodiest war. The early decades of independence saw the Whiskey Rebellion, Nullification Crisis, and occasional small border skirmishes between states/territories. That’s with a democratic tradition. Without the experience the US had the French Revolution give way to a tyranny of the masses enforced by the guillotine and eventually Imperial France under Napoleon. The early German experience, the Weimar Republic, lasted 14 years before a detour through genocidal, militaristic, fascism. The transition can be painful and bloody. > [@](#): > > My question: can this region stay in a state of war for decades? It’s not unprecedented. Good chunks of Africa have managed to be unstable and violent for decades since the end of European colonialism. ---
**Author:** ![JustinC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justinc/32/8083_2.png) [@JustinC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JustinC)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/7 "2015-05-02T13:32:54Z")
Iraq _used_ to be a very cultural, quite liberal, nice place to holiday in. I think this was maybe the 50’s Iraq, yeah the Pathe newsreel is [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY-V-Bl7GU8). I’ve been to Beirut and enjoyed the culture and people there, same goes for Egypt (twice). Jordan’s peaceful but nothing to write home about, the same goes for Kuwait and the UAE (although they’re richer). I’ve friends who’ve enjoyed holidays in Syria, Iran, Israel, and Oman. Obviously most of those weren’t recent. Once peace breaks out I hope to visit a few more countries in the region, although I think Yemen is off the list for the foreseeable. Foreigners are obviously treated with caution but are welcomed and treated well by the majority of peaceful people. There are long running tribal conflicts, some going back many years, but they don’t necessarily, automatically, lead to violent conflict. They’re more likely to lead to some positive discrimination if you share a tribal name (or religion, country of birth, or favourite football team) with a stranger. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/8 "2015-05-02T16:00:22Z")
> [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](#): > > The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. I guess that is why England and France are fighting wars with other constantly. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/9 "2015-05-02T17:21:56Z")
The Future of the Middle East? You actually had to ask?!?? - Fire and brimstone baby, fire and brimstone. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/10 "2015-05-02T17:25:31Z")
Are there meaningful movements pushing for secular humanism in the middle east? ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/11 "2015-05-02T17:37:37Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Are there meaningful movements pushing for secular humanism in the middle east? Used to be, but then the world powers started mucking around. > **[Secularism in Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secularism_in_Iran)** > > Secularism in Iran was established as state policy shortly after Rezā Shāh was crowned Shah in 1925. He made any public display or expression of religious faith, including the wearing of the headscarf (hijab) and chador by women and wearing of facial hair by men (with the exception of the mustache) illegal. Public religious festivals (such as Muharram and Ashura) and celebrations were banned, Shia clergy were forbidden to preach in extremist ideas. Overall Secularism was a positive change for Al... > [@](#): > > Secularism in Iran was established as state policy shortly after Rezā Shāh was crowned Shah in 1924.[1] He made any public display or expression of religious faith, including the wearing of the headscarf (hijab) and chador by women and wearing of facial hair by men (with the exception of the mustache) illegal. Public religious festivals (such as Muharram and Ashura) and celebrations were banned, Islamic clergy were forbidden to preach in public, and mosque activities were heavily restricted and regulated. > > Although criticised by the religious traditionalists and viewed as authoritarian by foreign observers, Reza Shah intended to secularise Iran and eliminate the influence of the Shi’a clergy upon the government and the society. During his reign, the first instances of Islamic extremism and terrorism appeared in Iran as a backlash against his secularist policies. For example, secularist politicians and writers such as Ahmad Kasravi were assassinated by Muslim fighters, the most notorious of which remains Navvab Safavi, who today is considered a hero by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. > Shapour Bakhtiar, Iran’s last secular prime minister > After Reza Shah was forcibly deposed and sent into exile by British and Soviet forces with the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, the era of secularism in Iran ended. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/12 "2015-05-03T16:28:36Z")
The Messiah will arrive, all the world will be filled with knowledge of G-d like the water fills the sea, and the lion will lie with the lamb. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/13 "2015-05-03T21:56:45Z")
Mass chaos and Failed States. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/14 "2015-05-03T22:12:34Z")
Something in between? Instead of failed states, I would predict more police states. The Egyptian government-by-the-military might be a spreading model. Authoritarianism is at least slightly better than totalitarianism or anarchy. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2015, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/15 "2015-05-03T22:22:10Z")
Moderately optimistic scenario: -Grand Alliance offensives against ISIS from all sides causes it to collapse, with ISIS leadership being killed in airstrikes or by angry mobs. -Assad gets killed off in a terrorist attack and whoever replaces him turns out to far more moderate, agreeing to a negotiated settlement with the more moderate elements of FSA while purging ISIS remnants as well Al-Nusra types -The new Iraqi government decides to actually learn from history and does its best to include both Sunnis and Shias in government, simulteneously minimizing Iranian influence. -Netanyahu’s plan to bomb Iranian nuclear power plants even in defiance of US gets leaked by people in IDF causing the collapse of his government and a massive electoral victory for centre-left parties. US pressure forces Palestinians to accept a reasonable two-state solution (probably 1967 borders minus East Jerusalem and some settlement blocks, limited to no right of return). -Erdogan goes a bit too far in his attempts to play Sultan and gets overthrown by the Turkish army. See Judges 19:25-30 for more details on Erdogan’s own fate. Turkish junta is pretty moderate and restores Ataturk’s legacy of secularization. -The “clarification” of the situations in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey emboldens the Kurdish nationalist movements in all those regions. While an actual Kurdish state does not come into being, a de facto Kurdistan comes to exist covering the Kurdish-speaking areas of all three countries which quickly becomes a social democratic/leftish secular republic with tremendous prosperity due to accepting Christian, Yezidi etc. refugees from elsewhere in the Middle East. -The Libyan Civil War ends in the victory of the parliamentary forces, who establish a dominant-party state on the Mexican model. -After another disputed election, a Second Iranian Revolution begins led by secularist forces. The revolution is fairly bloodless and in the end only the Ayatollah and a few other high-ranking clerics get executed. A secular republic is established on the Turkish model. This of course has the happy effect of cutting off funding to Hezbollah who become increasingly marginalized in Lebanon. -General Sisi proves to be less corrupt than most people expected and becomes Egypt’s Park Chung Hee/Lee Kwan yew presiding over economic growth and development as well as enforcing secularistic policies. -The domino effect of the resurgence of secularism makes its way eventually to even the Gulf monarchies. In a series of violent revolutions a group of dissident Army men as well as slave labourers from the Indian subcontinent and elsewhere band together (having previously tacitly agreed with the US to keep the oil flowing). They succeed and establish the Socialist Republican Federation of the Arabian Peninsula. The revolutionary government espouses a mildly Marxist but violently secular version of socialist republicanism rather akin to Jacobinism. Wahabbism is suppressed of course and tens of thousands of clerics as well as members of the various royal families are put to death by the new government on live television. -The various secular regimes gradually democratize and prosper in cooperation with Israel which is now firmly integrated into the Middle Eastern system. Economic growth reduces population growth and weakens Islamist ideology, thoroughly marginalizing both its Sunni and Shia variants. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2015, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/16 "2015-05-04T04:42:35Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > The Messiah will arrive, all the world will be filled with knowledge of G-d like the water fills the sea, and the lion will lie with the lamb. … but the lamb won’t get much sleep. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2015, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/17 "2015-05-04T04:55:03Z")
I’ve always felt like trade would eventually work to bring down barriers. Once a country starts trading with the others business alliances are formed and that can lead to peace. I read that in Somalia one of the things that started the peace process were cell phones. Everyone wanted them so the different groups had to work out some agreements which eventually lead to a stable form of government. Also with tourism Isreal and its neighbors have worked together to put together tour packages so now a tourist can visit sites in Isreal, Egypt, and others. ---
**Author:** ![Doctor\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctor_jackson/32/32_2.png) [@Doctor\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doctor_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2015, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/18 "2015-05-04T15:20:28Z")
> [@cmkeller](#): > > The Messiah will arrive… Again ;)😛 ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2015, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/19 "2015-05-04T16:57:05Z")
What happens if assad’s regime falls? Looks like a recipe for another war.:smack: ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2015, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892/20 "2015-05-04T17:41:27Z")
> [@grude](#): > > Used to be, but then the world powers started mucking around. > > [Secularism in Iran - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secularism_in_Iran) If you count Turkey as part of the Middle East, [it seems like Ataturk would count](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atat%C3%BCrk%27s_Reforms). Just because a governing party is secular or anti-religious, doesn’t mean they’re very nice for the people living under them, or pro-Western. The government in China during the Cultural Revolution and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia were outright opposed to religion. The Ba’athists in Iraq (and elsewhere in the Middle East) were a secular party, or at least started out that way. I wouldn’t argue that the Khmer Rouge were less nasty than ISIS. > [@UrbanRedneck](#): > > I read that in Somalia one of the things that started the peace process were cell phones. Everyone wanted them so the different groups had to work out some agreements which eventually lead to a stable form of government. OTOH, the very same technology [spurred demand for coltan and made things much worse in the Democratic Republic of Congo](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coltan#Ethics_of_mining_in_the_Democratic_Republic_of_Congo). I don’t think it’s as simple as “secular governments are better than religious ones” or “free trade and technology will make governments more stable”. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-future-of-the-middle-east/718892.md?page=2)