# What is the least probable event ever observed? Quantum tunnels? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 30, 2018, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126 "2018-05-30T12:59:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/21 "2018-05-30T18:21:20Z")
Twenty minutes ago, we were in a boring max-entropy universe experiencing heat death. But, just as a broken egg _might_ reassemble itself, so the atoms in this boring region of lifeless space have by chance taken the shape of an interesting planet with intelligent life, Internet and everything; photons are randomly configured to appear to come from stars. The neural synapses that make up our memories have randomly taken a form to “remember” a past life of many years, to remember learning about history and the dinosaurs, etc. All spurious memories — 20 minutes ago there was nothing. Or at least _my_ memories have been randomly configured into this astonishing form — I’m not sure about you guys. All things considered, this sudden emergence was very unlikely. Yet here we are. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/22 "2018-05-30T19:13:23Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > I wonder what the odds are that the section of bridge I’m walking on would suddenly appear 10 feet to my right and I would plummet to me doom. Now I’m seeing you as Ringo Starr. “Oh, no, I’m plummeting to me doom!” ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/23 "2018-05-30T21:13:43Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > The “least probable event ever observed” may be the creation of a universe capable of sentience and self-observation, or indeed, even basic existence of physical objects as we know them… [snip] How do you figure … the probability of someone on Earth exact like me in every way is around 1 in 8 billion … and I have 8 billion people I can show you and indeed only one is exactly like me … that’s “improbable” … Do you have 8 billion other universes to show me? … we only have one observable universe and and it fits your criteria … the other name for a probability of 1 in 1 in certainty … ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/24 "2018-05-30T21:21:38Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > Interesting replies so far. I’ll just add that this thought was prompted while I was out on my walk yesterday. While crossing a bridge I thought, I wonder what the odds are that the section of bridge I’m walking on would suddenly appear 10 feet to my right and I would plummet to me doom. Assured that it was safely quite low I kept going but I have to say this might be an example of ignorance being bliss. But it did get me thinking about what sort of low probability events have been observed. Now I was thinking more along the lines of low probability quantum events, but the replies so far have been great. If by “suddenly” you mean 791 milliseconds … then that would be fairly common except for bridge inspectors … even then it happens often enough to not be improbable … this just happened in Florida a few months ago at FSU … If you keep endangering yourself by using bridges, then this exact thing could well happen to you … [For example …](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACRj2aFgb7Y) {YouTube 4’42"} ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/25 "2018-05-30T22:06:06Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > How do you figure … the probability of someone on Earth exact like me in every way is around 1 in 8 billion … and I have 8 billion people I can show you and indeed only one is exactly like me … that’s “improbable” … > > Do you have 8 billion other universes to show me? … we only have one observable universe and and it fits your criteria … the other name for a probability of 1 in 1 in certainty … Aside from your inability to state a coherent thought or use sensible punctuation, you seem to have missed the essential point, to wit that there are a number of [fundamental physical constants](http://web.mit.edu/birge/Public/formulas/phys-const.pdf) which have to be just so in order for the basic physical mechanisms of our universe to work in a way that permits basic astrophsyics and chemistry to create stars, worlds, and ecosystems. As far as we know (and may ever know) the particular confluence of parameters which permits the universe as we know it to exist are compeletely arbitrary, and the likelihood of coming to those values with the necessary precision by chance so massively unlikely as to be literally unquantifiable. This is not a unique concept, and is in fact the basis for the so-called “fine tuned universe” argument, although the validity of that claim in trying to justify an outside organizing force is without any evidential basis. There are many structured objects or patterns in which there are vastly more than eight billion permutations. There are around 10[SUP]40[/SUP] permutations of legal positions on a chess board. Even more in combinations of Go. There are vastly more stars—each unique—in our galaxy alone than eight billion by at least an order and a half of magnitude, and more galaxies than that in the observable universe. The number of unique people in the world (about 7.5 billion, BTW) is in no way a special number, and the uniqueness of every individual is not impressive in and of itself since the same observation could be made of essentially any multicellular species, many of which exceed that quantity and long before modern humans started kicking around. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/26 "2018-05-30T22:12:23Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Twenty minutes ago, we were in a boring max-entropy universe experiencing heat death. But, just as a broken egg _might_ reassemble itself, so the atoms in this boring region of lifeless space have by chance taken the shape of an interesting planet with intelligent life, Internet and everything; photons are randomly configured to appear to come from stars. The neural synapses that make up our memories have randomly taken a form to “remember” a past life of many years, to remember learning about history and the dinosaurs, etc. All spurious memories — 20 minutes ago there was nothing. > > Or at least _my_ memories have been randomly configured into this astonishing form — I’m not sure about you guys. All things considered, this sudden emergence was very unlikely. Yet here we are. The Boltzmann brain posts here? ---
**Author:** ![40below](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/51bf81/32.png) [@40below](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/40below)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/27 "2018-05-30T22:58:25Z")
Well, if something has already occurred, its chances of happening are 100 per cent ---
**Author:** ![40below](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/51bf81/32.png) [@40below](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/40below)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/28 "2018-05-30T23:11:30Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > The catch in the OP is that this “least probable event” has to have been observed … it’s possible for a baseball infielder to be credited with an unassisted triple play without ever touching the ball … improbable indeed … and it’s never known to have happened … whereas a drive to the outfield and bouncing off the outfielder’s head and over the fence for a home run actually has happened {[YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QixQMUu4CKI) 1’17"} … Okay, I give: how can a player turn a triple play unassisted without touching the ball? ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2018, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/29 "2018-05-30T23:52:30Z")
> [@40below](#): > > Okay, I give: how can a player turn a triple play unassisted without touching the ball? I think the easiest way for a player to be credited with an unassisted triple play without touching the ball is for the scorekeeper to make a mistake. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/30 "2018-05-31T00:10:55Z")
Erskine Ebbin and his brother Neville were killed almost exactly a year apart after being involved in collision with the same taxi, driven by the same driver and carrying the same passenger. [http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20110511/NEWS/705119961](http://www.royalgazette.com/article/20110511/NEWS/705119961) I’ve heard explanations of this that revolved around the fact that it was at the same place and the same day (people have regular traffic patterns), but this wasn’t actually the case - it just tends to get reported that way to exaggerate the coincidence. It was the same time of year and same main road, but not the same day and not the same intersection. The “regular traffic patterns” might still be enough to explain it though once you remove the false coincidences. Brother inherits moped from dead brother, but is just as reckless with it due to genetic factors and/or learning from his brother how to ride it. Cab takes same passenger on same route using same road often enough. The island isn’t that big. Still amusing. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/31 "2018-05-31T00:25:28Z")
**Moderator Warning** > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > Aside from your inability to state a coherent thought or use sensible punctuation If you have an issue with a particular poster, take it to the Pit. Do not attack or insult other posters in GQ. Attack the post, not the poster. This is an official warning for personal insults. ---
**Author:** ![Sicks\_Ate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/258eb7/32.png) [@Sicks\_Ate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sicks_Ate)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/32 "2018-05-31T00:44:56Z")
Weakest warning ever. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/33 "2018-05-31T03:04:45Z")
Anthropic principle like events are really not useful. The universe being in its current state is the obvious extension of such things. I might suggest the OMG particle as a good start on an event that has both a reasonable expected probability that has been observed. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/34 "2018-05-31T04:08:18Z")
> [@40below](#): > > Okay, I give: how can a player turn a triple play unassisted without touching the ball? George Wills, the columnist, gets credit for working this out: Obviously, no outs … man on first and second … sound familiar, that’s right, the batter pops the ball up on the infield towards the shortstop and he is given credit for the infield fly rule out … the base runner on first being clueless hauls ass around second passing the other runner, so the runner from first is also called out and the shortstop is credited with THAT out … the runner on second tried to stop the runner on first from passing him and was dragged off second, then the ball hits the runner on second on its way down, so he’s also out from interference and once again the shortstop is credited with the out … All three outs are credited to the shortstop even though the shortstop _never_ touches the ball … ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/35 "2018-05-31T05:55:18Z")
This is the same as asking what is the largest natural number and the answer is that it does not exist. The reason being that you can always add 1 to any number to find it’s successor. It’s the same with observing the least probable event because you can always make up another event which was even less probable. For example, say I observe a supernova- now that’s a low probability event. I can then makeup another lower probability event : Seeing a supernova and emailing about it to your friend in the next 30 mins. So on and so forth. So, in short, as my math teacher used to say : The answer doesn’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/36 "2018-05-31T18:22:13Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > As mentioned, depending on how you define things, you can get pretty much as improbable as you want. However on this list of improbable physics events things that have been observed should be neutrino detection. A detector containing **65 tons of tetrocycline** which had about 65 billion neutrinos passing through each square centimeter every second, measured a neutrino interaction about once every 50 days. Carbon tetrachloride, perhaps, not tetracycline 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/37 "2018-05-31T18:29:20Z")
LED lights are based on quantum tunneling, so it’s something that happens all the time. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2018, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/38 "2018-05-31T19:36:18Z")
Looking over wiki’s article on [the fine tuning problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe) (FTP), I can’t tell whether this universe is 5 orders of magnitude improbable, 10, 15, 30 or substantially higher or lower. The article indicates that specifying the FTP with precision is difficult due to gaps in our knowledge. Someone here might be able to rule out 5 though. I once rolled triple sixes twice in a row playing Risk. Odds 2.1e-5, or 1/46,656. ---
**Author:** ![dba\_Fred](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c37758/32.png) [@dba\_Fred](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dba_Fred)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2018, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/39 "2018-06-01T02:08:31Z")
> [@Sicks\_Ate](#): > > Weakest warning ever. How probable is that? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Dahu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dahu/32/3416_2.png) [@Dahu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dahu)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2018, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126/40 "2018-06-06T18:40:52Z")
The BBC was told by mathematicians that this was rather unlikely: > **[French My Million lottery player scoops second €1m jackpot](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44388868)** > > The odds of anyone winning twice in less than two years are one in 16 trillion, experts say. > [@](#): > > A man from south-east France has won the country’s “My Million” lottery for the second time in less than two years - a feat that mathematicians say has odds of one in 16 trillion. …though I think I’d question their grasp of probability. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-least-probable-event-ever-observed-quantum-tunnels/815126.md?page=3)